Michigan at Illinois Week 8 College Football Matchup Michigan at Illinois Matchup - Week 8
Sat, Oct 19 2024 · Week 8 · 🏟 Memorial Stadium Champaign, IL · Turf · 60,670 cap
Michigan✈ 277 mi-1 hr TZ
Away
7 21
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Michigan
21
Illinois
24
P&R Line Illinois -3
P&R Total O/U 44
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Michigan -6 · O/U 44.0
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Illinois, while Game Control favors Michigan. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Illinois wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Michigan wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Michigan -6
O/U 44.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Illinois 2nd straight Home Game 🛋 Michigan Coming off BYE
Michigan 2024 Schedule
Michigan's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Michigan vs Fresno State-21.0W30–1048.0W30–10UN
Sat 9/7Michigan vs Texas+7.0L12–3142.0L12–31ON
Sat 9/14Michigan vs Arkansas State-22.0W28–1847.5W28–18UN
Sat 9/21Michigan vs USC+4.0W27–2444.0W27–24OY
Sat 9/28Michigan vs Minnesota-10.5W27–2434.5W27–24ON
Sat 10/5Michigan at Washington+1.5L17–2739.5L17–27ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Michigan at Illinois-6.0L7–2144.0L7–21UN
Sat 10/26Michigan vs Michigan State-3.5W24–1739.0W24–17OY
Sat 11/2Michigan vs Oregon+14.5L17–3845.5L17–38ON
Sat 11/9Michigan at Indiana+14.5L15–2047.5L15–20UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Michigan vs Northwestern-10.5W50–635.5W50–6OY
Sat 11/30Michigan at Ohio State+20.5W13–1041.5W13–10UY
Tue 12/31Michigan vs Alabama+16.5W19–1345.5W19–13UY
Illinois 2024 Schedule
Illinois's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Illinois vs Eastern Illinois-28.5W45–050.5W45–0UY
Sat 9/7Illinois vs Kansas+4.5W23–1758.5W23–17UY
Sat 9/14Illinois vs Central Michigan-21.5W30–949.5W30–9UN
Fri 9/20Illinois at Nebraska+9.5W31–2441.5W31–24OY
Sat 9/28Illinois at Penn State+19.5L7–2148.0L7–21UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Illinois vs Purdue-22.5W50–4947.5W50–49ON
Sat 10/19Illinois vs Michigan+6.0W21–744.0W21–7UY
Sat 10/26Illinois at Oregon+22.5L9–3854.0L9–38UN
Sat 11/2Illinois vs Minnesota+2.5L17–2547.0L17–25UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Illinois vs Michigan State-2.0W38–1647.5W38–16OY
Sat 11/23Illinois at Rutgers+2.0W38–3148.0W38–31OY
Sat 11/30Illinois vs Northwestern-8.5W38–2842.5W38–28OY
Tue 12/31Illinois vs South Carolina+9.5W21–1750.0W21–17UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Illinois PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Michigan #113
+0.282
Illinois #31
+0.372
Illinois Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Michigan #119
+0.303
Illinois #16
+0.596
Illinois Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Michigan #23
0.188
Illinois #117
0.133
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Michigan Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Michigan #45
+7.657
Illinois #39
+7.706
Illinois Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Michigan #102
+0.863
Illinois #45
+0.829
Michigan Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Michigan #52
70.0
Illinois #46
69.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Illinois Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Michigan Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Michigan
18.3
Illinois
8.0
Offense Rating
Michigan
24.2
Illinois
18.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Michigan
5.9
Illinois
10.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Illinois Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Michigan #54
0.67
Illinois #108
0.80
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Michigan #21
1.00
Illinois #23
0.40
Illinois +0.13
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Michigan Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Michigan #1
55.2
Illinois #1
51.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Michigan #59
29.5
Illinois #35
24.1
Michigan +3.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Illinois
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Illinois
77.8 — 9.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Illinois won by 14
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Michigan
Sherrone Moore #1
1–0 (100%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Kirk Campbell Yr 1 #1
DC Don Martindale Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Illinois
Bret Bielema #1
18–19 (49%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Barry Lunney Jr. Yr 3 #1
DC Aaron Henry Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself