Matchup Prediction
Oregon
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Oregon entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Oregon wins
Solid
Game Control
67.1%
Oregon wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Oregon -22.5
O/U 54.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Oregon
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Illinois 2024 Schedule
Illinois's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Illinois vs Eastern Illinois | -28.5W45–0 | 50.5 | W45–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Illinois vs Kansas | +4.5W23–17 | 58.5 | W23–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Illinois vs Central Michigan | -21.5W30–9 | 49.5 | W30–9 | U | N |
| Fri 9/20 | Illinois at Nebraska | +9.5W31–24 | 41.5 | W31–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Illinois at Penn State | +19.5L7–21 | 48.0 | L7–21 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Illinois vs Purdue | -22.5W50–49 | 47.5 | W50–49 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Illinois vs Michigan | +6.0W21–7 | 44.0 | W21–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Illinois at Oregon | +22.5L9–38 | 54.0 | L9–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Illinois vs Minnesota | +2.5L17–25 | 47.0 | L17–25 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Illinois vs Michigan State | -2.0W38–16 | 47.5 | W38–16 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Illinois at Rutgers | +2.0W38–31 | 48.0 | W38–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Illinois vs Northwestern | -8.5W38–28 | 42.5 | W38–28 | O | Y |
| Tue 12/31 | Illinois vs South Carolina | +9.5W21–17 | 50.0 | W21–17 | U | Y |
Oregon 2024 Schedule
Oregon's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Oregon vs Idaho | -31.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/7 | Oregon vs Boise State | -17.5W37–34 | 60.5 | W37–34 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Oregon at Oregon State | -16.0W49–14 | 50.0 | W49–14 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/28 | Oregon at UCLA | -23.5W34–13 | 54.5 | W34–13 | U | N |
| Fri 10/4 | Oregon vs Michigan State | -22.5W31–10 | 53.0 | W31–10 | U | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Oregon vs Ohio State | +3.5W32–31 | 54.5 | W32–31 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/18 | Oregon at Purdue | -30.0W35–0 | 61.0 | W35–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Oregon vs Illinois | -22.5W38–9 | 54.0 | W38–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Oregon at Michigan | -14.5W38–17 | 45.5 | W38–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Oregon vs Maryland | -24.0W39–18 | 58.0 | W39–18 | U | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Oregon at Wisconsin | -13.5W16–13 | 49.5 | W16–13 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/30 | Oregon vs Washington | -17.5W49–21 | 50.5 | W49–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/7 | Oregon vs Penn State | -3.5W45–37 | 51.5 | W45–37 | O | Y |
| Wed 1/1 | Oregon vs Ohio State | +2.5L21–41 | 55.5 | L21–41 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Oregon
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Oregon
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Oregon
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Oregon Edge
Oregon +1.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Oregon Edge
Oregon +13.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Oregon
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Oregon
92.5 — 3.8 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Oregon won by 29
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Oregon with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Illinois
Bret Bielema #1
18–19 (49%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Barry Lunney Jr.
Yr 3
#1
DC
Aaron Henry
Yr 2
#1
Oregon
Dan Lanning #1
22–5 (82%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Junior Adams
Yr 2
#1
DC
Tosh Lupoi
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓