Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Wisconsin wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Minnesota -1.5
O/U 40.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Minnesota
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Minnesota 2024 Schedule
Minnesota's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Minnesota vs North Carolina | +2.0L17–19 | 52.5 | L17–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Minnesota vs Rhode Island | -27.5W48–0 | 47.5 | W48–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Minnesota vs Nevada | -17.5W27–0 | 44.5 | W27–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Minnesota vs Iowa | +3.0L14–31 | 34.5 | L14–31 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Minnesota at Michigan | +10.5L24–27 | 34.5 | L24–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Minnesota vs USC | +8.5W24–17 | 45.5 | W24–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Minnesota at UCLA | -3.5W21–17 | 39.0 | W21–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/26 | Minnesota vs Maryland | -6.0W48–23 | 45.0 | W48–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Minnesota at Illinois | -2.5W25–17 | 47.0 | W25–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Minnesota at Rutgers | -6.5L19–26 | 44.5 | L19–26 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Minnesota vs Penn State | +11.0L25–26 | 45.0 | L25–26 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/29 | Minnesota at Wisconsin | -1.5W24–7 | 40.5 | W24–7 | U | Y |
| Fri 1/3 | Minnesota vs Virginia Tech | -10.0W24–10 | 43.5 | W24–10 | U | Y |
Wisconsin 2024 Schedule
Wisconsin's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/30 | Wisconsin vs Western Michigan | -24.0W28–14 | 57.0 | W28–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Wisconsin vs South Dakota | -17.5W27–13 | 44.5 | W27–13 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Wisconsin vs Alabama | +15.5L10–42 | 51.0 | L10–42 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/28 | Wisconsin at USC | +14.0L21–38 | 50.5 | L21–38 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Wisconsin vs Purdue | -12.0W52–6 | 44.5 | W52–6 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Wisconsin at Rutgers | +1.0W42–7 | 43.5 | W42–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Wisconsin vs Northwestern | -9.5W23–3 | 42.5 | W23–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Wisconsin vs Penn State | +6.5L13–28 | 47.0 | L13–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Wisconsin at Iowa | +2.5L10–42 | 40.0 | L10–42 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Wisconsin vs Oregon | +13.5L13–16 | 49.5 | L13–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Wisconsin at Nebraska | +1.5L25–44 | 40.5 | L25–44 | O | N |
| Fri 11/29 | Wisconsin vs Minnesota | +1.5L7–24 | 40.5 | L7–24 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Minnesota
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Minnesota
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Minnesota
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Minnesota +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Wisconsin Edge
Wisconsin +4.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Wisconsin, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Minnesota
P. J. Fleck #1
50–34 (60%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Greg Harbaugh Jr.
Yr 2
#1
DC
Corey Hetherman
Yr 1
#1
Wisconsin
Luke Fickell #1
7–6 (54%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Phil Longo
Yr 2
#1
DC
Mike Tressel
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓