Matchup Prediction
Minnesota
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Minnesota entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Minnesota wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Minnesota wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Minnesota -17.5
O/U 44.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Minnesota
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Nevada 2024 Schedule
Nevada's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/24 | Nevada vs SMU | +28.0L24–29 | 55.5 | L24–29 | U | Y |
| Sat 8/31 | Nevada at Troy | +7.5W28–26 | 44.5 | W28–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Nevada vs Georgia Southern | -1.5L17–20 | 56.5 | L17–20 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Nevada at Minnesota | +17.5L0–27 | 44.5 | L0–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Nevada vs Eastern Washington | -13.5W49–16 | 54.5 | W49–16 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Nevada at San José State | +7.0L31–35 | 51.5 | L31–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Nevada vs Oregon State | +3.0W42–37 | 47.0 | W42–37 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/18 | Nevada vs Fresno State | +3.0L21–24 | 50.0 | L21–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Nevada at Hawai'i | +2.5L13–34 | 42.0 | L13–34 | O | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Nevada vs Colorado State | +2.0L21–38 | 45.5 | L21–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Nevada at Boise State | +23.5L21–28 | 60.5 | L21–28 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Nevada vs Air Force | -3.0L19–22 | 44.5 | L19–22 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Nevada at UNLV | +17.5L14–38 | 54.5 | L14–38 | U | N |
Minnesota 2024 Schedule
Minnesota's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Minnesota vs North Carolina | +2.0L17–19 | 52.5 | L17–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Minnesota vs Rhode Island | -27.5W48–0 | 47.5 | W48–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Minnesota vs Nevada | -17.5W27–0 | 44.5 | W27–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Minnesota vs Iowa | +3.0L14–31 | 34.5 | L14–31 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Minnesota at Michigan | +10.5L24–27 | 34.5 | L24–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Minnesota vs USC | +8.5W24–17 | 45.5 | W24–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Minnesota at UCLA | -3.5W21–17 | 39.0 | W21–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/26 | Minnesota vs Maryland | -6.0W48–23 | 45.0 | W48–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Minnesota at Illinois | -2.5W25–17 | 47.0 | W25–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Minnesota at Rutgers | -6.5L19–26 | 44.5 | L19–26 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Minnesota vs Penn State | +11.0L25–26 | 45.0 | L25–26 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/29 | Minnesota at Wisconsin | -1.5W24–7 | 40.5 | W24–7 | U | Y |
| Fri 1/3 | Minnesota vs Virginia Tech | -10.0W24–10 | 43.5 | W24–10 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Minnesota
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Minnesota
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Minnesota
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Minnesota Edge
Minnesota +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Minnesota Edge
Minnesota +18.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Minnesota
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Minnesota
71.9 — 11.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Minnesota won by 27
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Minnesota with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Nevada
Jeff Choate #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Matt Lubick
Yr 1
#1
DC
Kane Ioane
Yr 1
#1
Minnesota
P. J. Fleck #1
50–34 (60%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Greg Harbaugh Jr.
Yr 2
#1
DC
Corey Hetherman
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓