Fri, Aug 30 2024
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Week 1
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🏟 Faurot Field
Columbia, MO
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Turf
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71,168 cap
Murray State✈ 271 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2024 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2023 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Missouri wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Missouri -50.5
O/U 62.5
ESPN Bet
Murray State 2024 Schedule
Murray State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Murray State at Missouri | +50.5L0–51 | 62.5 | L0–51 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Murray State at Kentucky | +41.5L6–48 | 54.5 | L6–48 | U | N |
Missouri 2024 Schedule
Missouri's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Missouri vs Murray State | -50.5W51–0 | 62.5 | W51–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Missouri vs Buffalo | -34.5W38–0 | 53.5 | W38–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Missouri vs Boston College | -14.5W27–21 | 51.5 | W27–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Missouri vs Vanderbilt | -17.5W30–27 | 52.0 | W30–27 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Missouri at Texas A&M | +3.0L10–41 | 47.5 | L10–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Missouri at Massachusetts | -27.0W45–3 | 54.0 | W45–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Missouri vs Auburn | -3.5W21–17 | 49.5 | W21–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Missouri at Alabama | +16.0L0–34 | 51.5 | L0–34 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Missouri vs Oklahoma | +3.5W30–23 | 41.5 | W30–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Missouri at South Carolina | +10.5L30–34 | 42.5 | L30–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Missouri at Mississippi State | -9.5W39–20 | 58.0 | W39–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Missouri vs Arkansas | -3.5W28–21 | 51.5 | W28–21 | U | Y |
| Mon 12/30 | Missouri vs Iowa | -1.0W27–24 | 41.0 | W27–24 | O | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Murray State Edge
Murray State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Missouri Edge
Missouri +52.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓