Sat, Oct 23 2021
·
Week 8
·
🏟 Scott Stadium
Charlottesville, VA
·
Turf
·
61,500 cap
Georgia Tech✈ 441 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Virginia
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Virginia entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Virginia wins
Solid
Game Control
67.1%
Virginia wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Virginia -6.5
O/U 66.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Virginia
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Georgia Tech 2021 Schedule
Georgia Tech's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Georgia Tech vs Northern Illinois | -19.0L21–22 | 57.0 | L21–22 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Georgia Tech vs Kennesaw State | -20.0W45–17 | 53.0 | W45–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Georgia Tech at Clemson | +27.5L8–14 | 52.5 | L8–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Georgia Tech vs North Carolina | +14.5W45–22 | 66.0 | W45–22 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Georgia Tech vs Pittsburgh | +3.0L21–52 | 57.5 | L21–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Georgia Tech at Duke | -4.5W31–27 | 60.5 | W31–27 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Georgia Tech at Virginia | +6.5L40–48 | 66.0 | L40–48 | O | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Georgia Tech vs Virginia Tech | -3.0L17–26 | 55.0 | L17–26 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Georgia Tech at Miami | +10.0L30–33 | 63.0 | L30–33 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Georgia Tech vs Boston College | +2.0L30–41 | 55.0 | L30–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Georgia Tech at Notre Dame | +18.0L0–55 | 57.5 | L0–55 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Georgia Tech vs Georgia | +35.5L0–45 | 54.5 | L0–45 | U | N |
Virginia 2021 Schedule
Virginia's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Virginia vs William & Mary | -30.5W43–0 | 52.5 | W43–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Virginia vs Illinois | -10.5W42–14 | 57.0 | W42–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Virginia at North Carolina | +7.5L39–59 | 67.0 | L39–59 | O | N |
| Fri 9/24 | Virginia vs Wake Forest | -3.5L17–37 | 71.0 | L17–37 | U | N |
| Thu 9/30 | Virginia at Miami | +3.5W30–28 | 63.5 | W30–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Virginia at Louisville | +2.5W34–33 | 69.5 | W34–33 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Virginia vs Duke | -10.5W48–0 | 69.5 | W48–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Virginia vs Georgia Tech | -6.5W48–40 | 66.0 | W48–40 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Virginia at BYU | +2.5L49–66 | 66.5 | L49–66 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/13 | Virginia vs Notre Dame | +7.5L3–28 | 62.5 | L3–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Virginia at Pittsburgh | +12.5L38–48 | 69.0 | L38–48 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Virginia vs Virginia Tech | -7.0L24–29 | 63.5 | L24–29 | U | N |
| Wed 12/29 | Virginia vs SMU | -2.5 | 71.0 | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Virginia
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Virginia
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Virginia
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Virginia Edge
Virginia +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Virginia Edge
Virginia +15.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Virginia
3 — 2 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Virginia
64.2 — 19.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Virginia won by 8
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Virginia with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Georgia Tech
Geoff Collins #1
7–18 (28%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Dave Patenaude
Yr 1
#1
DC
Nathan Burton
Yr 1
#1
Virginia
Bronco Mendenhall #1
32–33 (49%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Robert Anae
Yr 1
#1
DC
Kelly Poppinga
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓