Fri, Sep 24 2021
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Scott Stadium
Charlottesville, VA
·
Turf
·
61,500 cap
Wake Forest✈ 162 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Virginia,
while Game Control favors Wake Forest.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
71.6%
Virginia wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Wake Forest wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Virginia -3.5
O/U 71.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Wake Forest
· 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Wake Forest 2021 Schedule
Wake Forest's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/3 | Wake Forest vs Old Dominion | -32.5W42–10 | 61.5 | W42–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Wake Forest vs Norfolk State | -43.0W41–16 | 58.0 | W41–16 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Wake Forest vs Florida State | -4.5W35–14 | 63.0 | W35–14 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/24 | Wake Forest at Virginia | +3.5W37–17 | 71.0 | W37–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Wake Forest vs Louisville | -7.0W37–34 | 64.5 | W37–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Wake Forest at Syracuse | -5.5W40–37 | 59.0 | W40–37 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Wake Forest at Army | -3.0W70–56 | 53.5 | W70–56 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Wake Forest vs Duke | -16.5W45–7 | 71.5 | W45–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Wake Forest at North Carolina | +2.5L55–58 | 78.0 | L55–58 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Wake Forest vs NC State | -1.0W45–42 | 65.0 | W45–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Wake Forest at Clemson | +3.5L27–48 | 57.0 | L27–48 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Wake Forest at Boston College | -5.5W41–10 | 64.0 | W41–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/4 | Wake Forest vs Pittsburgh | +3.5L21–45 | 72.5 | L21–45 | U | N |
| Fri 12/31 | Wake Forest vs Rutgers | -17.0W38–10 | 63.0 | W38–10 | U | Y |
Virginia 2021 Schedule
Virginia's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Virginia vs William & Mary | -30.5W43–0 | 52.5 | W43–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Virginia vs Illinois | -10.5W42–14 | 57.0 | W42–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Virginia at North Carolina | +7.5L39–59 | 67.0 | L39–59 | O | N |
| Fri 9/24 | Virginia vs Wake Forest | -3.5L17–37 | 71.0 | L17–37 | U | N |
| Thu 9/30 | Virginia at Miami | +3.5W30–28 | 63.5 | W30–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Virginia at Louisville | +2.5W34–33 | 69.5 | W34–33 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Virginia vs Duke | -10.5W48–0 | 69.5 | W48–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Virginia vs Georgia Tech | -6.5W48–40 | 66.0 | W48–40 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Virginia at BYU | +2.5L49–66 | 66.5 | L49–66 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/13 | Virginia vs Notre Dame | +7.5L3–28 | 62.5 | L3–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Virginia at Pittsburgh | +12.5L38–48 | 69.0 | L38–48 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Virginia vs Virginia Tech | -7.0L24–29 | 63.5 | L24–29 | U | N |
| Wed 12/29 | Virginia vs SMU | -2.5 | 71.0 | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Wake Forest
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Virginia Edge
Virginia +1.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Wake Forest Edge
Wake Forest +27.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Wake Forest
Dave Clawson #1
43–45 (49%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Warren Ruggiero
Yr 1
#1
DC
Lyle Hemphill
Yr 1
#1
Virginia
Bronco Mendenhall #1
32–33 (49%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Robert Anae
Yr 1
#1
DC
Kelly Poppinga
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓