Sun, Nov 14 2021
·
Week 11
·
🏟 Scott Stadium
Charlottesville, VA
·
Turf
·
61,500 cap
Notre Dame✈ 481 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Virginia,
while Game Control favors Notre Dame.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Virginia wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Notre Dame wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Notre Dame -7.5
O/U 62.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Notre Dame
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Notre Dame 2021 Schedule
Notre Dame's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 9/5 | Notre Dame at Florida State | -7.0W41–38 | 53.5 | W41–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Notre Dame vs Toledo | -16.5W32–29 | 55.0 | W32–29 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Notre Dame vs Purdue | -7.5W27–13 | 58.0 | W27–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Notre Dame vs Wisconsin | +6.0W41–13 | 43.5 | W41–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Notre Dame vs Cincinnati | +2.5L13–24 | 50.0 | L13–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Notre Dame at Virginia Tech | +1.0W32–29 | 46.5 | W32–29 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Notre Dame vs USC | -8.0W31–16 | 59.5 | W31–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Notre Dame vs North Carolina | -3.5W44–34 | 63.0 | W44–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Notre Dame vs Navy | -21.0W34–6 | 47.5 | W34–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Notre Dame at Virginia | -7.5W28–3 | 62.5 | W28–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Notre Dame vs Georgia Tech | -18.0W55–0 | 57.5 | W55–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Notre Dame at Stanford | -20.5W45–14 | 53.0 | W45–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 1/1 | Notre Dame vs Oklahoma State | +1.5L35–37 | 45.5 | L35–37 | O | N |
Virginia 2021 Schedule
Virginia's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Virginia vs William & Mary | -30.5W43–0 | 52.5 | W43–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Virginia vs Illinois | -10.5W42–14 | 57.0 | W42–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Virginia at North Carolina | +7.5L39–59 | 67.0 | L39–59 | O | N |
| Fri 9/24 | Virginia vs Wake Forest | -3.5L17–37 | 71.0 | L17–37 | U | N |
| Thu 9/30 | Virginia at Miami | +3.5W30–28 | 63.5 | W30–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Virginia at Louisville | +2.5W34–33 | 69.5 | W34–33 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Virginia vs Duke | -10.5W48–0 | 69.5 | W48–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Virginia vs Georgia Tech | -6.5W48–40 | 66.0 | W48–40 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Virginia at BYU | +2.5L49–66 | 66.5 | L49–66 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/13 | Virginia vs Notre Dame | +7.5L3–28 | 62.5 | L3–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Virginia at Pittsburgh | +12.5L38–48 | 69.0 | L38–48 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Virginia vs Virginia Tech | -7.0L24–29 | 63.5 | L24–29 | U | N |
| Wed 12/29 | Virginia vs SMU | -2.5 | 71.0 | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Notre Dame
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Notre Dame
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Notre Dame
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Virginia Edge
Virginia +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Notre Dame Edge
Notre Dame +5.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Notre Dame
Brian Kelly #1
84–38 (69%)
· Yr 12 at school
OC
Tommy Rees
Yr 1
#1
DC
Marcus Freeman
Yr 1
#1
Virginia
Bronco Mendenhall #1
32–33 (49%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Robert Anae
Yr 1
#1
DC
Kelly Poppinga
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓