Sat, Nov 27 2021
·
Week 13
·
🏟 Scott Stadium
Charlottesville, VA
·
Turf
·
61,500 cap
Virginia Tech✈ 118 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Virginia,
while Game Control favors Virginia Tech.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Virginia wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Virginia Tech wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Virginia -7
O/U 63.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Virginia
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Virginia Tech 2021 Schedule
Virginia Tech's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/3 | Virginia Tech vs North Carolina | +5.5W17–10 | 63.5 | W17–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Virginia Tech vs Middle Tennessee | -20.0W35–14 | 55.0 | W35–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Virginia Tech at West Virginia | +2.0L21–27 | 49.5 | L21–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Virginia Tech vs Richmond | -29.0W21–10 | 50.0 | W21–10 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/9 | Virginia Tech vs Notre Dame | -1.0L29–32 | 46.5 | L29–32 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Virginia Tech vs Pittsburgh | +6.0L7–28 | 55.5 | L7–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Virginia Tech vs Syracuse | -3.5L36–41 | 45.5 | L36–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech | +3.0W26–17 | 55.0 | W26–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/5 | Virginia Tech at Boston College | -1.0L3–17 | 51.0 | L3–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Virginia Tech vs Duke | -13.5W48–17 | 50.5 | W48–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Virginia Tech at Miami | +7.0L26–38 | 55.5 | L26–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Virginia Tech at Virginia | +7.0W29–24 | 63.5 | W29–24 | U | Y |
| Wed 12/29 | Virginia Tech vs Maryland | +4.0L10–54 | 55.0 | L10–54 | O | N |
Virginia 2021 Schedule
Virginia's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Virginia vs William & Mary | -30.5W43–0 | 52.5 | W43–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Virginia vs Illinois | -10.5W42–14 | 57.0 | W42–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Virginia at North Carolina | +7.5L39–59 | 67.0 | L39–59 | O | N |
| Fri 9/24 | Virginia vs Wake Forest | -3.5L17–37 | 71.0 | L17–37 | U | N |
| Thu 9/30 | Virginia at Miami | +3.5W30–28 | 63.5 | W30–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Virginia at Louisville | +2.5W34–33 | 69.5 | W34–33 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Virginia vs Duke | -10.5W48–0 | 69.5 | W48–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Virginia vs Georgia Tech | -6.5W48–40 | 66.0 | W48–40 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Virginia at BYU | +2.5L49–66 | 66.5 | L49–66 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/13 | Virginia vs Notre Dame | +7.5L3–28 | 62.5 | L3–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Virginia at Pittsburgh | +12.5L38–48 | 69.0 | L38–48 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Virginia vs Virginia Tech | -7.0L24–29 | 63.5 | L24–29 | U | N |
| Wed 12/29 | Virginia vs SMU | -2.5 | 71.0 | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Virginia
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Virginia Edge
Virginia +0.90
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Virginia Tech Edge
Virginia Tech +6.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Virginia Tech
Justin Fuente #1
40–27 (60%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Brad Cornelsen
Yr 1
#1
DC
Justin Hamilton
Yr 1
#1
Virginia
Bronco Mendenhall #1
32–33 (49%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Robert Anae
Yr 1
#1
DC
Kelly Poppinga
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

