Virginia Tech at Virginia Week 13 College Football Matchup Virginia Tech at Virginia Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 27 2021 · Week 13 · 🏟 Scott Stadium Charlottesville, VA · Turf · 61,500 cap
Virginia Tech✈ 118 miSame TZ
29 24
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Virginia Tech
26
UVA -7
Virginia
33
P&R Line Virginia -7.5
P&R Total O/U 58.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Virginia -7 · O/U 63.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Virginia, while Game Control favors Virginia Tech. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Virginia wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Virginia Tech wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Virginia -7
O/U 63.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Virginia · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Virginia Tech 2nd straight Road Game
Virginia Tech 2021 Schedule
Virginia Tech's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/3Virginia Tech vs North Carolina+5.5W17–1063.5W17–10UY
Sat 9/11Virginia Tech vs Middle Tennessee-20.0W35–1455.0W35–14UY
Sat 9/18Virginia Tech at West Virginia+2.0L21–2749.5L21–27UN
Sat 9/25Virginia Tech vs Richmond-29.0W21–1050.0W21–10UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/9Virginia Tech vs Notre Dame-1.0L29–3246.5L29–32ON
Sat 10/16Virginia Tech vs Pittsburgh+6.0L7–2855.5L7–28UN
Sat 10/23Virginia Tech vs Syracuse-3.5L36–4145.5L36–41ON
Sat 10/30Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech+3.0W26–1755.0W26–17UY
Fri 11/5Virginia Tech at Boston College-1.0L3–1751.0L3–17UN
Sat 11/13Virginia Tech vs Duke-13.5W48–1750.5W48–17OY
Sat 11/20Virginia Tech at Miami+7.0L26–3855.5L26–38ON
Sat 11/27Virginia Tech at Virginia+7.0W29–2463.5W29–24UY
Wed 12/29Virginia Tech vs Maryland+4.0L10–5455.0L10–54ON
Virginia 2021 Schedule
Virginia's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Virginia vs William & Mary-30.5W43–052.5W43–0UY
Sat 9/11Virginia vs Illinois-10.5W42–1457.0W42–14UY
Sat 9/18Virginia at North Carolina+7.5L39–5967.0L39–59ON
Fri 9/24Virginia vs Wake Forest-3.5L17–3771.0L17–37UN
Thu 9/30Virginia at Miami+3.5W30–2863.5W30–28UY
Sat 10/9Virginia at Louisville+2.5W34–3369.5W34–33UY
Sat 10/16Virginia vs Duke-10.5W48–069.5W48–0UY
Sat 10/23Virginia vs Georgia Tech-6.5W48–4066.0W48–40OY
Sat 10/30Virginia at BYU+2.5L49–6666.5L49–66ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/13Virginia vs Notre Dame+7.5L3–2862.5L3–28UN
Sat 11/20Virginia at Pittsburgh+12.5L38–4869.0L38–48OY
Sat 11/27Virginia vs Virginia Tech-7.0L24–2963.5L24–29UN
Wed 12/29Virginia vs SMU-2.571.0
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Virginia PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Virginia
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Virginia Tech
+0.514
Virginia
+0.554
Virginia Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Virginia Tech
+0.710
Virginia
+0.630
Virginia Tech Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Virginia Tech
0.174
Virginia
0.143
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Virginia Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Virginia Tech
+7.069
Virginia
+8.223
Virginia Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Virginia Tech
+0.880
Virginia
+0.923
Virginia Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Virginia Tech
71.7
Virginia
74.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Virginia Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Virginia Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Virginia Tech
5.9
Virginia
7.0
Offense Rating
Virginia Tech
18.4
Virginia
17.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Virginia Tech
12.5
Virginia
10.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Virginia Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Virginia Tech #111
0.70
Virginia #55
1.60
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Virginia Tech #66
0.80
Virginia #124
2.00
Virginia +0.90
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Virginia Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Virginia Tech #1
51.5
Virginia #1
44.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Virginia Tech #75
38.5
Virginia #74
45.1
Virginia Tech +6.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Virginia Tech
Justin Fuente #1
40–27 (60%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Brad Cornelsen Yr 1 #1
DC Justin Hamilton Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Virginia
Bronco Mendenhall #1
32–33 (49%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Robert Anae Yr 1 #1
DC Kelly Poppinga Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself