New Mexico at New Mexico State - 2026 Matchup Preview

New Mexico Lobos at New Mexico State Aggies

Saturday, September 26th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Aggie Memorial Stadium - Las Cruces, NM

Lobos (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jason Eck (9 - 4)
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (28 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 3.5 (#40)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)

UNM 2nd straight Road Game
NMSU coming off BYE
Our Line: New Mexico -13.5 (SP+ UNM -16.5)
Projected Score: UNM: 31 - NMSU: 17 (48)
UNM Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
UNM Travel: 193 miles

Aggies (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (7 - 17)
Avg Score : 22 - 28 (23 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 0.1 - 0.9 (#102)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UNM Players
NMSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

New Mexico's 2026 Schedule

Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	New Mexico vs Central Michigan	-10.5	—	—	—	—
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/19	New Mexico at Oklahoma	+24.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/26	New Mexico at New Mexico State	-13.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/3	New Mexico vs UTEP	-17.5	—	—	—	—
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/17	New Mexico at Hawai'i	+1	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/24	New Mexico vs North Dakota State	-3.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/31	New Mexico at San José State	-13	—	—	—	—
Sat 11/7	New Mexico at Nevada	-14	—	—	—	—
Sat 11/14	New Mexico vs UNLV	-0.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 11/21	New Mexico at Wyoming	-6.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 11/28	New Mexico vs Air Force	-10	—	—	—	—

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule

New Mexico State's 2026 Schedule

Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/29	New Mexico State at Florida State	+26.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 8/29	New Mexico State at Florida State	+26.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/12	New Mexico State at Hawai'i	+17	—	—	—	—
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/26	New Mexico State vs New Mexico	+13.5	—	—	—	—

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNM	#65 (.18)	42% (78)	27.1	43% (77)	3.15 (32)	152	42% (69)	205	3.96 (44)	#47 (.11)	40% (50)	22.3	40% (49)	40% (58)	3.12 (24)	48.5	1.8	1.3
NMSU	#125 (.05)	37% (123)	21.6	33% (135)	2.13 (134)	77	40% (92)	250	3.21 (114)	#40 (.11)	42% (72)	27.6	41% (52)	44% (108)	3.29 (34)	54.4	2	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NMSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNM Offense	13	27.1	27.5	41.8%	3.96	1.8	19	357	152	205	4.3	53%	45%	43%	42%	14%	.18
NMSU Defense	12	27.6	17.7	42%	3.29	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	48%	41%	44%	16%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNM Defense	13	22.3	26.3	40%	3.12	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	40%	40%	17%	.11
NMSU Offense	12	21.6	23.2	36.7%	3.21	2	20	328	77	250	2.6	39%	59%	33%	40%	20%	.05

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
New Mexico	13	30:03	19.4	39%	66%	5.8	48.5	1.8	1.3	5.9	2.8	3	28.4
New Mexico State	12	30:05	20.3	42%	41%	6.2	54.4	2	1.9	5	1.5	1	28.4

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNM Offense	13	53% (41)	43% (77)	35.7	152.4	4.3	22 (49)	.14 (54)	3.15 (32)	75% (45)	9% (67)	0.99 (59)
NMSU Defense	12	50% (61)	41% (52)	-	-	-	-	(15)	2.99 (91)	71% (70)	9% (106)	0.92 (45)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNM Defense	13	47% (35)	40% (49)	-	-	-	-	.04 (36)	2.63 (21)	83% (128)	11% (32)	0.97 (74)
NMSU Offense	12	39% (130)	33% (135)	29.7	77.4	2.6	9 (132)	-.09 (135)	2.13 (134)	69% (89)	11% (107)	0.91 (88)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNM Offense	13	45% (97)	42% (69)	17.5	26.9	204.8	7.6	11.7	17 (61)	10 (119)	.27 (63)	1.6 (50)	30% (50)	30% (71)	.33 (59)	5% (22)	1.9 (112)
NMSU Defense	12	48% (66)	44% (108)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (31)	.26 (76)	1.5 (43)	31% (69)	27% (26)	.23 (45)	7% (22)	2.1 (104)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNM Defense	13	52% (108)	40% (58)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (100)	.24 (64)	1.5 (42)	34% (33)	28% (42)	.27 (59)	6% (52)	1.9 (38)
NMSU Offense	12	59% (7)	40% (92)	23	39.3	250.3	6.4	10.9	17 (86)	16 (34)	.17 (112)	1.4 (110)	36% (130)	27% (109)	.2 (108)	10% (136)	1.9 (102)

New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -0.44 #78
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 12.81 #70
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 18.25 #85
2026 Talent Rating: 526.00 #116
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #64
New Mexico's 2026 Expected Record: 7.5 - 3.5
New Mexico's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.9 #73
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #82
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #66

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -0.44 New Mexico State: -13.17

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: 0.9 New Mexico State: -15.5

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -13.17 #131
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 0.52 #134
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 21.36 #114
2026 Talent Rating: 348.00 #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #103
New Mexico State's 2026 Expected Record: 0.1 - 0.9
New Mexico State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.5 #123
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.7 #112
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.9 #120

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 484.36
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81

New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.5
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.3

New Mexico's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
New Mexico 31
New Mexico State 17

Projected Total Points: 48

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 23.2
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

New Mexico State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/27	New Mexico	38	New Mexico State	20	New Mexico -16.5	New Mexico	53.5	Over
2024	09/28	New Mexico State	40	New Mexico	50	New Mexico -9.5	New Mexico	54.0	Over
2023	09/16	New Mexico	17	New Mexico State	27	New Mexico -2.5	New Mexico State	52.0	Under
2022	10/15	New Mexico State	21	New Mexico	9	New Mexico -7	New Mexico State	38.5	Under
2021	09/11	New Mexico	34	New Mexico State	25	New Mexico -19.5	New Mexico State	55.5	Over
2019	09/21	New Mexico	55	New Mexico State	52	New Mexico -4	New Mexico State	69.0	Over
2018	09/15	New Mexico State	25	New Mexico	42	New Mexico -3	New Mexico	60.5	Over
2017	09/09	New Mexico	28	New Mexico State	30	New Mexico -7	New Mexico State	69.5	Under
2016	09/10	New Mexico State	32	New Mexico	31	New Mexico -11.5	New Mexico State	62.0	Over
2015	10/03	New Mexico	38	New Mexico State	29	New Mexico -14	New Mexico State	65.5	Over
2014	09/20	New Mexico State	35	New Mexico	38	New Mexico -3	NA	0
2013	10/05	New Mexico	66	New Mexico State	17	New Mexico -7	New Mexico	0
2012	09/22	New Mexico State	14	New Mexico	27
2011	10/01	New Mexico	28	New Mexico State	42
2010	10/09	New Mexico State	16	New Mexico	14
2009	09/26	New Mexico	17	New Mexico State	20
2008	09/27	New Mexico State	24	New Mexico	35
2007	09/08	New Mexico	44	New Mexico State	34
2006	09/09	New Mexico State	28	New Mexico	34
2005	09/17	New Mexico	38	New Mexico State	21
2004	09/25	New Mexico State	3	New Mexico	38
2003	09/27	New Mexico	24	New Mexico State	17
2002	09/21	New Mexico State	24	New Mexico	13
2001	11/24	New Mexico	53	New Mexico State	0
2000	09/15	New Mexico State	13	New Mexico	16

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
New Mexico State	8	7	7 Overs
New Mexico	17	4	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 12	4 - 7	2 - 5	2 - 2
Road Teams	12 - 13	7 - 4	2 - 2	5 - 2

(#78) UNM at (#131) NMSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNM	NMSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#78	#131
SP+SP+	#73	#123
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#116	#132
Blue ChipsBC%	#64	#103

New Mexico Notes(3/3) Vibes: Eck a fast rising HC, have talent, lack exp
(3/3) OL has 4 solid starters returning, depth is light
(3/3) DL looks OK, 5 with exp + 3 portals. Big DTs
(3/3) DBs have good exp, 4 portal adds. Lack dudes
(3/3) Big crootin class of 25, solid future foundation
(3/3) QB Jack Layne back, decent LY but TD/TO is ?
(3/3) RB rebuild, have 2 w exp but not a lot of prod
(3/3) WR Williams (FCS) + Omeire portals help rebuild
New Mexico Injury Report

New Mexico State Injury Report

New Mexico on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	UNM Off	NMSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#78	#72
ExplosiveExp	#55	#45
PPAPPA	#65	#40
PowerPwr	#70	#114
SP+SP+	#82	#120
Pts POPPO	#44	#34
HavocHav	#45	#71

New Mexico Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	UNM Off	NMSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#77	#52
Run ExplRExp	#59	#45
PPAExp	#54	#15
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#32	#91
Stuff RateStuff	#11	#59
TackleTak	-	NR

New Mexico Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	UNM Off	NMSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#69	#108
Pass ExplPExl	#50	#43
PPAExp	#63	#76
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#67	#106
DB HavocDB	#22	#22

New Mexico State on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	NMSU Off	UNM Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#123	#50
ExplosiveExp	#56	#58
PPAPPA	#125	#47
PowerPwr	#134	#85
SP+SP+	#112	#66
Pts POPPO	#114	#24
HavocHav	#133	#36

New Mexico State Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	NMSU Off	UNM Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#135	#49
Run ExplRExp	#88	#74
PPAExp	#135	#36
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#134	#21
Stuff RateStuff	#134	#18
TackleTak	-	NR

New Mexico State Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	NMSU Off	UNM Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#92	#58
Pass ExplPExl	#110	#42
PPAExp	#112	#64
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#107	#32
DB HavocDB	#136	#52

Program Comparison
NMSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'26 Profile: Up to Poor G5

UNM 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'26 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Aggie Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
New Mexico beat New Mexico State last year (38-20)
New Mexico beat New Mexico State in 2024 (50-40)
New Mexico State beat New Mexico in 2023 (27-17)

UNM's OC Luke Schleusner (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jack Layne	213	327	65%	2486	13	10	7.6
Luke Moga (Tr)	3	5	60%	58	0	0	11.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Scottre Humphrey	77	349	5	4.5	61
Kiefer Sibley	45	274	5	6.1	45
Jack Layne	87	152	4	1.7	54
Luke Moga (Tr)	3	49	0	16.3	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Miles Williams (Tr)	41	524	2	12.8	46
Troy Omeire (Tr)	32	521	5	16.3	68
Cade Keith	20	253	3	12.7	45
Shawn Miller	15	199	1	13.3	42

View New Mexico's Full Roster

UNM's DC Spence Nowinsky (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaxton Eck	128	7	2	3	2
Tavian Combs	72	1	1	0	3
Mercury Swaim	52	7	2	1	2
Frankie Edwards	47	1	0	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mercury Swaim	52	7	2	1	2
Darren Agu	30	4	2	2	1
Jaxton Eck	128	7	2	3	2
Jalen McIver	10	3	2	1	1

Pass D	Tack	PD
Drew Speech	10	8
Kevin Longstreet	4	4
Ormanie Arnold (Tr)	15	3

NMSU's OC David Yost (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Trey Hedden	287	419	69%	2967	17	13	7.1
Adam Damante	70	104	67%	711	5	4	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
James Jones (Tr)	98	958	9	9.8	90
Dijon Stanley	73	297	2	4.1	57
Isaiah Rudison	42	158	2	3.8	36
Terrell Washington Jr. (Tr)	28	98	0	3.5	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tyler King	41	588	3	14.3	64
Brodrick Malone	22	242	2	11.0	41
Lyndon Ravare (Tr)	21	237	1	11.3	38
Josiah Thomas (Tr)	28	228	3	8.1	20

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Joe Morris (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tory Gethers	87	5	3	1	2
Sone Aupiu	68	6	1	3	4
Nicolas Sessions	61	3	0	1	3
Bernock Iya	53	3	0	2	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tory Gethers	87	5	3	1	2
Henry Davis III	10	1	1	0	1
Sone Aupiu	68	6	1	3	4
Gabe Peterson	32	1	1	9	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Josiah Charles	28	0	0	0	5
Sone Aupiu	68	6	1	3	4
Lorenzo Smith	18	0	0	0	3