South Florida at UTSA - 2026 Matchup Preview

Thursday, October 8th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Alamodome - San Antonio, TX (American Athletic)

Bulls (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Brian Hartline (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 41 - 23 (35 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.9 - 2.1 (#9)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 9)

UTSA is playing their 6th straight game
USF is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: South Florida -5 (SP+ USF -8)
Projected Score: USF: 37 - UTSA: 32 (68)
USF Win prob: 63% | Cover: 48%
USF Travel: 973 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Roadrunners (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Traylor (53 - 26)
Avg Score : 36 - 29 (46 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 4.5 (#37)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)

Matchup
Schedules
USF Players
UTSA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

South Florida's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	South Florida vs Florida International	-19
Sat 9/12	South Florida at Army	-7.5
Sat 9/19	South Florida vs Delaware State	-31
Sat 9/26	South Florida at Bowling Green	-19.5
Sat 10/3	South Florida vs Temple	-15
Thu 10/8	South Florida at UTSA	-5
Sat 10/17	South Florida vs Kent State	-27
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/31	South Florida vs UAB	-25.5
Fri 11/6	South Florida at East Carolina	-2
Thu 11/12	South Florida vs Memphis	-4.5
Sat 11/21	South Florida at Florida Atlantic	-13.5
Fri 11/27	South Florida vs Tulane	-8.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule

UTSA's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	UTSA vs UT Rio Grande Valley	-23.5
Sat 9/12	UTSA at Texas State	+3.5
Sat 9/19	UTSA at Texas	+24.5
Sat 9/26	UTSA vs Colorado State	-14
Sat 10/3	UTSA at Rice	-11.5
Thu 10/8	UTSA vs South Florida	+5
Sat 10/17	UTSA vs Navy	-2.5
Sat 10/24	UTSA at Tulane	+4
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/5	UTSA at Florida Atlantic	-6
Sat 11/14	UTSA vs North Texas	+1.5
Sat 11/21	UTSA at UAB	-13.5
Sat 11/28	UTSA vs Tulsa	-9

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UTSA's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USF	#12 (.31)	46% (21)	40.5	47% (26)	3.33 (13)	212	46% (28)	276	4.45 (17)	#20 (.07)	38% (21)	23.4	38% (14)	38% (37)	3.15 (28)	61	1.5	1.9
UTSA	#31 (.23)	45% (35)	35.5	45% (47)	2.81 (94)	174	47% (21)	247	4.23 (27)	#82 (.18)	40% (46)	28.8	40% (44)	40% (49)	4.2 (115)	68.7	0.9	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UTSA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USF Offense	13	40.5	35	46.5%	4.45	1.5	24	488	212	276	5.5	51%	48%	47%	46%	14%	.31
UTSA Defense	13	28.8	25.5	39.6%	4.2	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	40%	40%	19%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USF Defense	13	23.4	32.3	37.8%	3.15	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	38%	38%	16%	.07
UTSA Offense	13	35.5	45.8	45.5%	4.23	0.9	22	421	174	247	5.1	46%	52%	45%	47%	16%	.23

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
South Florida	13	25:24	23.8	46%	62%	6.6	61	1.5	1.9	6.5	2.5	3	29.5
UTSA	13	31:51	21.8	40%	46%	7.3	68.7	0.9	1.4	5.9	1.8	2	31.8

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USF Offense	13	51% (55)	47% (26)	38.8	212.2	5.5	29 (30)	.18 (38)	3.33 (13)	81% (9)	8% (23)	0.98 (60)
UTSA Defense	13	50% (65)	40% (44)	-	-	-	-	.12 (85)	2.86 (62)	64% (20)	11% (20)	0.97 (73)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USF Defense	13	48% (47)	38% (14)	-	-	-	-	.02 (22)	2.63 (20)	79% (120)	11% (42)	1.06 (112)
UTSA Offense	13	46% (100)	45% (47)	34.2	174.1	5.1	21 (49)	.19 (35)	2.81 (94)	73% (61)	10% (102)	1.17 (6)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USF Offense	13	48% (80)	46% (28)	20.7	31.2	275.6	8.9	13.3	33 (8)	11 (60)	.48 (6)	1.7 (14)	29% (24)	30% (75)	.43 (25)	6% (81)	2.3 (4)
UTSA Defense	13	49% (77)	40% (49)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (75)	.29 (85)	1.8 (131)	35% (18)	28% (47)	.3 (69)	7% (20)	2.2 (123)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USF Defense	13	51% (94)	38% (37)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (6)	.17 (33)	1.6 (67)	37% (5)	27% (34)	.23 (43)	6% (81)	2 (49)
UTSA Offense	13	52% (37)	47% (21)	22.9	34.4	247.2	7.2	10.8	34 (33)	7 (34)	.33 (43)	1.5 (96)	30% (47)	36% (21)	.45 (21)	6% (55)	2.2 (15)

South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: 3.64 #61
South Florida's Offense Rating: 15.90 #43
South Florida's Defense Rating: 17.26 #78
2026 Talent Rating: 840.00 #51
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #87
South Florida's 2026 Expected Record: 9.9 - 2.1
South Florida's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.6 #29
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7 #12
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #62

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 576.71
Average Power Five Talent: 912.75
Average FBS Talent: 728.49

Power Ratings Matchup
South Florida: 3.64 UTSA: 2.685

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Florida: 11.6 UTSA: 3.7

UTSA's Power Ratings
UTSA's Power Rating: 2.685 #84
UTSA's Offense Rating: 11.47 #77
UTSA's Defense Rating: 19.80 #95
2026 Talent Rating: 578.00 #97
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #57
UTSA's 2026 Expected Record: 7.5 - 4.5
UTSA's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.7 #62
UTSA's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #27
UTSA's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #91

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 576.71
Average Power Five Talent: 912.75
Average FBS Talent: 728.49

South Florida Scoring
Offense: 40.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 35
Defense: 23.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.3

South Florida's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
South Florida 37
UTSA 32

Projected Total Points: 68

UTSA Scoring
Offense: 35.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.8
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.5

UTSA's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/06	South Florida	55	UTSA	23	South Florida -14	South Florida	66.5	Over
2023	11/17	UTSA	49	South Florida	21	UT San Antonio -14.5	UTSA	65.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UTSA	1	1	2 Overs
South Florida	1	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	2 - 0	2 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 0	0 - 2

(#61) USF at (#84) UTSA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USF	UTSA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#61	#84
SP+SP+	#29	#62
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#51	#97
Blue ChipsBC%	#87	#57

South Florida Notes(2/26) Vibes: Unclear, but will step back from LY
(2/26) QB Van Buren is most exp'd of 4 portal adds
(2/26) RB Isaac back, 2 prod FCS adds. Some depth
(2/26) WR Odom (UTEP)/Reuben decent duo, have depth
(2/26) OL has 7 w starting exp, 6 are portals. Have depth
(2/26) Def F7 very light on exp/prod. Big pass rush ?
(2/26) DBs have exp but grade out poorly. 9 portal adds
(2/26) 41 portals, 16 croots = 57 new on roster
(2/24) New era w Hartline. First time outside Columbus
(2/12) What does a Hartline Off look like w/o Day (OSU)
South Florida Injury Report

UTSA Notes(2/17) Vibes: OK, two 7-6 seasons but McCown back
(2/17) QB McCown back (3rd yr starter). Depth is ?
(2/17) New OC Rick Bowie (WKU) runs a fun offense
(2/17) RB good w Henderson + depth. High (Cal) nice +
(2/17) WR Amador/Wilson good start, have depth/portals
(2/17) OL 3 back from good unit, 3 portals w no exp
(2/17) DL 7 portals + 4 w PT exp. Has parts/promise
(2/17) DBs look ?, 4 portals at S, CB needs solid #2
UTSA Injury Report

South Florida on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	USF Off	UTSA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#21	#46
ExplosiveExp	#28	#126
PPAPPA	#12	#82
PowerPwr	#43	#95
SP+SP+	#12	#91
Pts POPPO	#17	#115
HavocHav	#45	#18

South Florida Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	USF Off	UTSA Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#26	#44
Run ExplRExp	#60	#73
PPAExp	#38	#85
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#13	#62
Stuff RateStuff	#10	#75
TackleTak	-	NR

South Florida Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	USF Off	UTSA Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#28	#49
Pass ExplPExl	#14	#131
PPAExp	#6	#85
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#23	#20
DB HavocDB	#81	#20

UTSA on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	UTSA Off	USF Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#35	#21
ExplosiveExp	#23	#107
PPAPPA	#31	#20
PowerPwr	#77	#78
SP+SP+	#27	#62
Pts POPPO	#27	#28
HavocHav	#80	#59

UTSA Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	UTSA Off	USF Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#47	#14
Run ExplRExp	#6	#112
PPAExp	#35	#22
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#94	#20
Stuff RateStuff	#105	#17
TackleTak	-	NR

UTSA Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	UTSA Off	USF Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#21	#37
Pass ExplPExl	#96	#67
PPAExp	#43	#33
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#102	#42
DB HavocDB	#55	#81

Program Comparison
UTSA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Down to Top G5

USF 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Alamodome
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
South Florida beat UTSA last year (55-23)
UTSA beat South Florida in 2023 (49-21)

USF's OC Tim Beck* (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
KJ Cooper (Tr)	151	244	62%	1497	11	5	6.1
Michael Van Buren Jr. (Tr)	94	151	62%	1010	8	2	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
D.J. Crowther (Tr)	191	929	10	4.9	67
Jason Collins Jr. (Tr)	94	363	5	3.9	23
Alvon Isaac	73	350	0	4.8	49
KJ Cooper (Tr)	72	243	3	3.4	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kenny Odom (Tr)	62	582	6	9.4	74
Mudia Reuben	36	495	5	13.8	60
Armani Winfield (Tr)	22	276	2	12.5	49
Arhmad Branch (Tr)	14	212	2	15.1	49

View South Florida's Full Roster

USF's DC Josh Aldridge (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Ayden Jackson (Tr)	74	4	1	3
Tavin Ward	60	2	0	2
Za'Quan Bryan (Tr)	37	1	1	3
Zavier Hamilton	37	3	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Shamar Meikle (Tr)	28	6	2	4	0
Marshon Oxley (Tr)	15	5	2	1	1
Michael Williams II	19	2	1	1	0
Ryan Jenkins	12	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Ayden Jackson (Tr)	74	4	1	3
Za'Quan Bryan (Tr)	37	1	1	3
Tavin Ward	60	2	0	2

UTSA's OC Rick Bowie (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Owen McCown	276	409	68%	2990	30	7	7.3
Brandon Tennison	20	34	59%	199	2	0	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Will Henderson III	125	866	6	6.9	59
A'Marion Peterson	49	177	3	3.6	14
Brandon High	23	98	1	4.3	22
Bryson Donnell	20	84	1	4.2	28

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
AJ Wilson	30	523	4	17.4	77
David Amador	45	443	4	9.8	45
DJ Allen	20	189	3	9.5	43
Will Henderson III	19	132	2	6.9	40

View UTSA's Full Roster

UTSA's DC Jess Loepp (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Tucker Jr.	35	3	0	4	0
Owen Pewee	28	4	0	6	1
Marcellus Wilkerson	27	3	1	1	1
Jakevian Rodgers	23	2	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elijah Baldwin (Tr)	23	6	4	4	4
James Walley Jr.	19	6	2	0	2
Marcellus Wilkerson	27	3	1	1	1
Timothy Huff Jr.	3	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jakevian Rodgers	23	2	0	0	4
Elijah Baldwin (Tr)	23	6	4	4	4
Cam Upshaw Jr.	13	1	0	0	2