South Florida at East Carolina - 2026 Matchup Preview
South Florida logo   South Florida Bulls at East Carolina Pirates  East Carolina logo
Friday, November 6th 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium - Greenville, NC  (American Athletic)

 
Bulls (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Brian Hartline (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 41 - 23 (35 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.9 - 2.1 (#9)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 9)
ECU 2nd straight Home Game
ECU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: South Florida -2  (SP+ USF -3.5)
Projected Score: USF: 31 - ECU: 29 (60)
USF Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
USF Travel: 607 miles
Pirates (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Blake Harrell (14 - 5)
Avg Score : 33 - 20 (36 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 3.5 (#20)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
 
South Florida's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 South Florida vs Florida International-19
Sat 9/12 South Florida at Army-7.5
Sat 9/19 South Florida vs Delaware State-31
Sat 9/26 South Florida at Bowling Green-19.5
Sat 10/3 South Florida vs Temple-15
Thu 10/8 South Florida at UTSA-5
Sat 10/17 South Florida vs Kent State-27
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/31 South Florida vs UAB-25.5
Fri 11/6 South Florida at East Carolina-2
Thu 11/12 South Florida vs Memphis-4.5
Sat 11/21 South Florida at Florida Atlantic-13.5
Fri 11/27 South Florida vs Tulane-8.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule
East Carolina's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 East Carolina at Alabama+19
Sat 9/12 East Carolina vs App State-16.5
Sat 9/19 East Carolina at Old Dominion-1.5
Sat 9/26 East Carolina vs North Carolina Central-26.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/10 East Carolina vs Rice-19.5
Thu 10/15 East Carolina at UAB-16
Thu 10/22 East Carolina at Memphis+5.5
Sat 10/31 East Carolina vs Temple-10.5
Fri 11/6 East Carolina vs South Florida+2
Sat 11/14 East Carolina at Charlotte-21
Sat 11/21 East Carolina at Army-2.5
Fri 11/27 East Carolina vs Florida Atlantic-13.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for East Carolina's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USF#12 (.31)46% (21)40.547% (26)3.33 (13)21246% (28)2764.45 (17)#20 (.07)38% (21)23.438% (14)38% (37)3.15 (28)611.51.9
ECU#40 (.21)46% (22)32.745% (55)3.04 (54)17649% (11)2733.76 (63)#33 (.09)38% (27)20.138% (17)39% (45)3.05 (19)61.51.11.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ECU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USF Offense1340.53546.5%4.451.5244882122765.551%48%47%46%14%.31
ECU Defense1320.119.838.3%3.051.8 - - - - - 47%52%38%39%19%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USF Defense1323.432.337.8%3.151.9 - - - - - 48%51%38%38%16%.07
ECU Offense1332.736.246.4%3.761.1234491762734.152%46%45%49%13%.21

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
South Florida1325:2423.846%62%6.6611.51.96.52.5329.5
East Carolina1328:1923.347%47%7.261.51.11.87.82.3131.2
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USF Offense1351% (55)47% (26)38.8212.25.529 (30).18 (38)3.33 (13)81% (9)8% (23)0.98 (60)
ECU Defense1347% (30)38% (17) - - - - .02 (24)2.51 (11)49% (1)14% (5)1.09 (123)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USF Defense1348% (47)38% (14) - - - - .02 (22)2.63 (20)79% (120)11% (42)1.06 (112)
ECU Offense1352% (44)45% (55)43176.34.131 (30).09 (77)3.04 (54)69% (94)8% (30)0.83 (120)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USF Offense1348% (80)46% (28)20.731.2275.68.913.333 (8)11 (60).48 (6)1.7 (14)29% (24)30% (75).43 (25)6% (81)2.3 (4)
ECU Defense1352% (113)39% (45) - - - - - - 10 (100).17 (36)1.4 (22)36% (11)28% (44).18 (23)6% (81)1.8 (22)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USF Defense1351% (94)38% (37) - - - - - - 14 (6).17 (33)1.6 (67)37% (5)27% (34).23 (43)6% (81)2 (49)
ECU Offense1346% (91)49% (11)21.933.8272.78.112.422 (61)6 (34).37 (32)1.5 (71)26% (7)37% (12).49 (13)5% (33)1.8 (118)

South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: 3.64  #61
South Florida's Offense Rating: 15.90  #43
South Florida's Defense Rating: 17.26  #78
2026 Talent Rating: 840.00  #51
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #87
South Florida's 2026 Expected Record: 9.9 - 2.1
South Florida's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.6  #29
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7  #12
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3  #62

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 576.71
Average Power Five Talent: 912.93
Average FBS Talent: 728.81

Power Ratings Matchup
South Florida: 3.64   East Carolina: 5.44

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Florida: 11.6   East Carolina: 8.0




East Carolina's Power Ratings
East Carolina's Power Rating: 5.44  #79
East Carolina's Offense Rating: 9.26  #90
East Carolina's Defense Rating: 16.38  #72
2026 Talent Rating: 636.00  #85
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #87
East Carolina's 2026 Expected Record: 8.5 - 3.5
East Carolina's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.0  #38
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.6  #33
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.0  #51

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 576.71
Average Power Five Talent: 912.93
Average FBS Talent: 728.81


South Florida Scoring
Offense: 40.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 35
Defense: 23.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.3

South Florida's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
South Florida 31
East Carolina 29

Projected Total Points: 60
East Carolina Scoring
Offense: 32.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.2
Defense: 20.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.8

East Carolina's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202210/01South Florida28East Carolina48East Carolina -10East Carolina55.5Over
202110/28East Carolina29South Florida14East Carolina -9.5East Carolina55.5Under
202010/10South Florida24East Carolina44South Florida -5.5East Carolina58.5Over
201910/26East Carolina20South Florida45South Florida -1South Florida51.0Over
201809/22South Florida20East Carolina13South Florida -20.5East Carolina67.5Under
201709/30East Carolina31South Florida61South Florida -22.5South Florida73.0Over
201610/08South Florida38East Carolina22South Florida -20East Carolina68.5Under
201511/07East Carolina17South Florida22East Carolina -3South Florida55.0Under
201410/11South Florida17East Carolina28East Carolina -14.5South Florida0
200612/23East Carolina7South Florida24
200411/13South Florida41East Carolina17
200311/08East Carolina37South Florida38
200210/19East Carolina30South Florida46
TeamWinsCoversO/U
East Carolina454 Overs
South Florida944 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 92 - 71 - 41 - 3
Road Teams9 - 47 - 23 - 14 - 1

(#61) USF at (#79) ECU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUSFECU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #61 #79
SP+SP+ #29 #38
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #51 #85
Blue ChipsBC% #87 #87
South Florida Notes
(2/26) Vibes: Unclear, but will step back from LY
(2/26) QB Van Buren is most exp'd of 4 portal adds
(2/26) RB Isaac back, 2 prod FCS adds. Some depth
(2/26) WR Odom (UTEP)/Reuben decent duo, have depth
(2/26) OL has 7 w starting exp, 6 are portals. Have depth
(2/26) Def F7 very light on exp/prod. Big pass rush ?
(2/26) DBs have exp but grade out poorly. 9 portal adds
(2/26) 41 portals, 16 croots = 57 new on roster
(2/24) New era w Hartline. First time outside Columbus
(2/12) What does a Hartline Off look like w/o Day (OSU)
South Florida Injury Report
East Carolina Notes
(2/25) Vibes: Good, Harrel a 14-5 start, won 9 LY
(2/25) Sneaky good portal class, #12 in G5
(2/25) QB1 Griffis (TT) vs Williams (Miami) will battle
(2/25) RB Allen (Marsh) & Gray (UNT) with depth
(2/25) WR has good looking trio & really good depth
(2/25) OL has 3 starters, need help at OT, 3 portals
(2/25) DL looks workable, solid DT combo, need rush
(2/25) Def back 7 needs work, 8 portals should help
East Carolina Injury Report
South Florida on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
USF OffECU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #21 #27
ExplosiveExp #28 #84
PPAPPA #12 #33
PowerPwr #43 #72
SP+SP+ #12 #51
Pts POPPO #17 #19
HavocHav #45 #11
South Florida Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
USF OffECU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #26 #17
Run ExplRExp #60 #123
PPAExp #38 #24
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #13 #11
Stuff RateStuff #10 #3
TackleTak - NR
South Florida Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
USF OffECU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #28 #45
Pass ExplPExl #14 #22
PPAExp #6 #36
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #23 #5
DB HavocDB #81 #81
East Carolina on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatECU OffUSF Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #22 #21
ExplosiveExp #111 #107
PPAPPA #40 #20
PowerPwr #90 #78
SP+SP+ #33 #62
Pts POPPO #63 #28
HavocHav #25 #59
East Carolina Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ECU OffUSF Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #55 #14
Run ExplRExp #120 #112
PPAExp #77 #22
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #54 #20
Stuff RateStuff #13 #17
TackleTak - NR
East Carolina Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatECU OffUSF Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #11 #37
Pass ExplPExl #71 #67
PPAExp #32 #33
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #30 #42
DB HavocDB #33 #81
Program Comparison
ECU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Up to Average P4

USF 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
USF's OC Tim Beck* (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
KJ Cooper (Tr)15124462%14971156.1
Michael Van Buren Jr. (Tr)9415162%1010826.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
D.J. Crowther (Tr)191929104.967
Jason Collins Jr. (Tr)9436353.923
Alvon Isaac7335004.849
KJ Cooper (Tr)7224333.423
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kenny Odom (Tr)6258269.474
Mudia Reuben36495513.860
Armani Winfield (Tr)22276212.549
Arhmad Branch (Tr)14212215.149

View South Florida's Full Roster

USF's DC Josh Aldridge (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ayden Jackson (Tr)744013
Tavin Ward602002
Za'Quan Bryan (Tr)371013
Zavier Hamilton373000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shamar Meikle (Tr)286240
Marshon Oxley (Tr)155211
Michael Williams II192110
Ryan Jenkins121100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ayden Jackson (Tr)744013
Za'Quan Bryan (Tr)371013
Tavin Ward602002

ECU's OC Jordan Davis (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Mitch Griffis (Tr)263672%357209.9
Emory Williams (Tr)131968%156008.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Michael Allen (Tr)7738545.068
Ashton Gray (Tr)5837756.551
TJ Engleman5930615.223
DeJuan Lacy104414.415
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brock Spalding42554313.255
Ja'Keith Hamilton (Tr)40545513.664
Landon Sides (Tr)34449113.260
Ismael Smith Flores19227611.943

View East Carolina's Full Roster

ECU's DC Jordan Hankins (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zyeir Gamble (Tr)724004
DJ Johnson Jr.605120
Ayden Duncanson331001
Preston Carr315220
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jasiyah Robinson267530
Kendrick DuJour115411
Rion Roseborough166310
Preston Carr315220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zyeir Gamble (Tr)724004
Ashton Levells (Tr)211004
Kevon Merrell275012