South Florida at Bowling Green - 2026 Matchup Preview
South Florida logo   South Florida Bulls at Bowling Green Falcons  Bowling Green logo
Saturday, September 26th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Doyt Perry Stadium - Bowling Green, OH

 
Bulls (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Brian Hartline (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 41 - 23 (35 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.9 - 2.1 (#9)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 9)
USF is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: South Florida -19.5  (SP+ USF -24)
Projected Score: USF: 36 - BGSU: 17 (53)
USF Win prob: 88% | Cover: 46%
USF Travel: 928 miles
Falcons (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Eddie George (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 21 - 24 (17 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 0 - 0 (#94)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
South Florida's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 South Florida vs Florida International-19
Sat 9/12 South Florida at Army-7.5
Sat 9/19 South Florida vs Delaware State-31
Sat 9/26 South Florida at Bowling Green-19.5
Sat 10/3 South Florida vs Temple-15
Thu 10/8 South Florida at UTSA-5
Sat 10/17 South Florida vs Kent State-27
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/31 South Florida vs UAB-25.5
Fri 11/6 South Florida at East Carolina-2
Thu 11/12 South Florida vs Memphis-4.5
Sat 11/21 South Florida at Florida Atlantic-13.5
Fri 11/27 South Florida vs Tulane-8.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule
Bowling Green's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/12 Bowling Green at Nebraska+24
Sat 9/19 Bowling Green at Iowa State+23.5
Sat 9/26 Bowling Green vs South Florida+19.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Bowling Green's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USF#12 (.31)46% (21)40.547% (26)3.33 (13)21246% (28)2764.45 (17)#20 (.07)38% (21)23.438% (14)38% (37)3.15 (28)611.51.9
BGSU#128 (.02)36% (128)20.537% (125)2.88 (78)15635% (124)1513.19 (118)#61 (.15)41% (56)24.339% (40)42% (68)3.44 (48)611.21.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BGSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USF Offense1340.53546.5%4.451.5244882122765.551%48%47%46%14%.31
BGSU Defense1224.319.540.6%3.441.3 - - - - - 53%46%39%42%19%.15
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USF Defense1323.432.337.8%3.151.9 - - - - - 48%51%38%38%16%.07
BGSU Offense1220.51735.6%3.191.217307156151458%40%37%35%16%.02

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
South Florida1325:2423.846%62%6.6611.51.96.52.5329.5
Bowling Green1231:1816.637%42%6.7611.21.36.21.8131
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USF Offense1351% (55)47% (26)38.8212.25.529 (30).18 (38)3.33 (13)81% (9)8% (23)0.98 (60)
BGSU Defense1253% (105)39% (40) - - - - .06 (48)2.74 (40)59% (9)13% (8)1.06 (116)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USF Defense1348% (47)38% (14) - - - - .02 (22)2.63 (20)79% (120)11% (42)1.06 (112)
BGSU Offense1258% (15)37% (125)39.3155.5413 (119).03 (112)2.88 (78)58% (133)10% (95)0.95 (76)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USF Offense1348% (80)46% (28)20.731.2275.68.913.333 (8)11 (60).48 (6)1.7 (14)29% (24)30% (75).43 (25)6% (81)2.3 (4)
BGSU Defense1246% (34)42% (68) - - - - - - 6 (75).28 (82)1.6 (95)33% (49)31% (86).32 (79)7% (43)2.1 (85)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USF Defense1351% (94)38% (37) - - - - - - 14 (6).17 (33)1.6 (67)37% (5)27% (34).23 (43)6% (81)2 (49)
BGSU Offense1240% (122)35% (124)13.823.8151.36.410.913 (106)12 (119).07 (129)1.6 (47)34% (110)25% (121).19 (114)6% (65)2.1 (50)

South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: 3.64  #61
South Florida's Offense Rating: 15.90  #43
South Florida's Defense Rating: 17.26  #78
2026 Talent Rating: 840.00  #51
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #87
South Florida's 2026 Expected Record: 9.9 - 2.1
South Florida's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.6  #29
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7  #12
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3  #62

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 576.71
Average Power Five Talent: 912.93
Average FBS Talent: 728.81

Power Ratings Matchup
South Florida: 3.64   Bowling Green: -11.98

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Florida: 11.6   Bowling Green: -12.6




Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: -11.98  #131
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: -0.51  #136
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: 20.85  #103
2026 Talent Rating: 560.00  #105
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #103
Bowling Green's 2026 Expected Record: 0.0 - 0.0
Bowling Green's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.6  #113
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.4  #128
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.8  #83

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 547.54
Average Power Five Talent: 912.93
Average FBS Talent: 728.81


South Florida Scoring
Offense: 40.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 35
Defense: 23.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.3

South Florida's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
South Florida 36
Bowling Green 17

Projected Total Points: 53
Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 20.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 17
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.5

Bowling Green's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Bowling Green000 Overs
South Florida000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#61) USF at (#131) BGSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUSFBGSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #61 #131
SP+SP+ #29 #113
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #51 #105
Blue ChipsBC% #87 #103
South Florida Notes
(2/26) Vibes: Unclear, but will step back from LY
(2/26) QB Van Buren is most exp'd of 4 portal adds
(2/26) RB Isaac back, 2 prod FCS adds. Some depth
(2/26) WR Odom (UTEP)/Reuben decent duo, have depth
(2/26) OL has 7 w starting exp, 6 are portals. Have depth
(2/26) Def F7 very light on exp/prod. Big pass rush ?
(2/26) DBs have exp but grade out poorly. 9 portal adds
(2/26) 41 portals, 16 croots = 57 new on roster
(2/24) New era w Hartline. First time outside Columbus
(2/12) What does a Hartline Off look like w/o Day (OSU)
South Florida Injury Report
South Florida on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
USF OffBGSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #21 #56
ExplosiveExp #28 #105
PPAPPA #12 #61
PowerPwr #43 #103
SP+SP+ #12 #83
Pts POPPO #17 #48
HavocHav #45 #12
South Florida Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
USF OffBGSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #26 #40
Run ExplRExp #60 #116
PPAExp #38 #48
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #13 #40
Stuff RateStuff #10 #8
TackleTak - NR
South Florida Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
USF OffBGSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #28 #68
Pass ExplPExl #14 #95
PPAExp #6 #82
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #23 #8
DB HavocDB #81 #43
Bowling Green on Offense
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCatBGSU OffUSF Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #128 #21
ExplosiveExp #82 #107
PPAPPA #128 #20
PowerPwr #136 #78
SP+SP+ #128 #62
Pts POPPO #118 #28
HavocHav #80 #59
Bowling Green Run Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
BGSU OffUSF Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #125 #14
Run ExplRExp #76 #112
PPAExp #112 #22
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #78 #20
Stuff RateStuff #66 #17
TackleTak - NR
Bowling Green Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCatBGSU OffUSF Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #124 #37
Pass ExplPExl #47 #67
PPAExp #129 #33
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #95 #42
DB HavocDB #65 #81
Program Comparison
BGSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

USF 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Doyt Perry Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
USF's OC Tim Beck* (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
KJ Cooper (Tr)15124462%14971156.1
Michael Van Buren Jr. (Tr)9415162%1010826.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
D.J. Crowther (Tr)191929104.967
Jason Collins Jr. (Tr)9436353.923
Alvon Isaac7335004.849
KJ Cooper (Tr)7224333.423
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kenny Odom (Tr)6258269.474
Mudia Reuben36495513.860
Armani Winfield (Tr)22276212.549
Arhmad Branch (Tr)14212215.149

View South Florida's Full Roster

USF's DC Josh Aldridge (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ayden Jackson (Tr)744013
Tavin Ward602002
Za'Quan Bryan (Tr)371013
Zavier Hamilton373000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shamar Meikle (Tr)286240
Marshon Oxley (Tr)155211
Michael Williams II192110
Ryan Jenkins121100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ayden Jackson (Tr)744013
Za'Quan Bryan (Tr)371013
Tavin Ward602002

BGSU's OC Greg Nosal (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Hunter Najm336650%473547.2
Austin Novosad (Tr)1250%400020.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ke'Marion Baldwin (Tr)15977864.989
Austyn Dendy10849354.624
Isaiah Dawson (Tr)11136112.442
Nakai Amachree72203.111
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Isaiah Dawson (Tr)42575413.767
Nicholas Sowell21247111.826
Brennan Ridley4110127.587
Austyn Dendy464116.027

View Bowling Green's Full Roster

BGSU's DC Brandon Fisher (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kal-El Pascal804005
Armahn Hale (Tr)444001
Preston EstoEsta291001
Dorian Pringle276100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Bradley206570
Eriq George265420
Andrew Hines III224110
Dorian Pringle276100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
JoJo Johnson2200013
Kal-El Pascal804005
Nick Sawyer (Tr)30002