Troy at Utah State - 2026 Matchup Preview
Troy logo   Troy Trojans at Utah State Aggies  Utah State logo
Saturday, September 26th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Romney Stadium - Logan, UT

 
Trojans (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Gerad Parker (12 - 14)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (23 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 0 - 0 (#80)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
TROY 2nd straight Road Game
USU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Utah State -3  (SP+ USU -2)
Projected Score: TROY: 26 - USU: 29 (54)
USU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
TROY Travel: 1580 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Aggies (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (6 - 7)
Avg Score : 31 - 29 (38 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.4 - 6.6 (#56)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)
 
Troy's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/19 Troy at Missouri+28.5
Sat 9/26 Troy at Utah State+3

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Troy's Schedule
Utah State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Utah State vs Idaho State-16
Sat 9/12 Utah State at Washington+30.5
Sat 9/19 Utah State at Utah+26.5
Sat 9/26 Utah State vs Troy-3
Sat 10/3 Utah State at Boise State+12.5
Fri 10/9 Utah State vs Washington State+4.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/24 Utah State at Texas State+10
Sat 10/31 Utah State vs Colorado State-8
Sat 11/7 Utah State vs Fresno State+0.5
Sat 11/14 Utah State at San Diego State+10.5
Sat 11/21 Utah State at Oregon State-5
Sat 11/28 Utah State vs TBD-16

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Utah State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TROY#110 (.1)38% (114)23.539% (112)2.82 (90)9838% (106)2093.67 (72)#48 (.12)40% (48)23.941% (57)39% (41)3.17 (30)52.11.31.3
USU#47 (.2)41% (91)30.942% (89)2.87 (81)16341% (85)2474.49 (16)#112 (.22)43% (91)28.745% (99)42% (70)3.77 (76)60.20.81.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TROY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
USU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TROY Offense1423.523.438.2%3.671.317307982092.847%51%39%38%20%.1
USU Defense1328.719.543.4%3.771.3 - - - - - 47%52%45%42%13%.22
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TROY Defense1423.925.939.9%3.171.3 - - - - - 54%44%41%39%16%.12
USU Offense1330.938.340.9%4.490.8214101632474.847%52%42%41%16%.2

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Troy1429:5517.339%47%5.652.11.31.36.12.6331
Utah State1327:1420.635%54%7.660.20.81.34.92.2128.2
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TROY Offense1447% (85)39% (112)35.1982.817 (88).02 (117)2.82 (90)78% (24)12% (126)0.87 (114)
USU Defense1347% (28)45% (99) - - - - .21 (124)3.18 (116)70% (61)7% (127)1.04 (105)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TROY Defense1454% (115)41% (57) - - - - .09 (65)3.01 (96)66% (31)11% (38)0.96 (67)
USU Offense1347% (95)42% (89)34.2162.94.825 (40).19 (31)2.87 (81)71% (75)11% (119)1.16 (9)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TROY Offense1451% (57)38% (106)17.930.9209.26.811.720 (42)12 (88).17 (111)1.7 (26)34% (114)28% (98).28 (78)7% (117)2.2 (22)
USU Defense1352% (111)42% (70) - - - - - - 13 (38).24 (62)1.5 (24)29% (112)33% (114).37 (107)6% (57)1.9 (26)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TROY Defense1444% (20)39% (41) - - - - - - 10 (75).17 (34)1.7 (120)34% (28)28% (40).23 (44)6% (75)2.1 (103)
USU Offense1352% (45)41% (85)18.631246.9813.326 (14)5 (7).24 (70)1.5 (67)33% (98)31% (56).36 (47)5% (28)2.1 (60)

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: -11.28  #107
Troy's Offense Rating: 3.67  #116
Troy's Defense Rating: 19.95  #90
2026 Talent Rating: 466.00  #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #66
Troy's 2026 Expected Record: 0.0 - 0.0
Troy's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.8  #87
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.6  #95
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0  #84

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 533.29
Average Power Five Talent: 897.88
Average FBS Talent: 712.17

Power Ratings Matchup
Troy: -11.28   Utah State: -4.895

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Troy: -4.8   Utah State: -3.1




Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -4.895  #110
Utah State's Offense Rating: 7.36  #89
Utah State's Defense Rating: 24.05  #123
2026 Talent Rating: 546.00  #102
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #99
Utah State's 2026 Expected Record: 5.4 - 6.6
Utah State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.1  #79
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5  #53
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2  #98

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 627.25
Average Power Five Talent: 897.88
Average FBS Talent: 712.17


Troy Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.4
Defense: 23.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.9

Troy's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Utah State 29
Troy 26

Projected Total Points: 54
Utah State Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.3
Defense: 28.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.5

Utah State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
200410/02Troy49Utah State21
200311/15Utah State14Troy23
200211/16Troy16Utah State19
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Utah State100 Overs
Troy200 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 20 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams2 - 10 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#107) TROY at (#110) USU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTROYUSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #107 #110
SP+SP+ #87 #79
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #119 #102
Blue ChipsBC% #66 #99
Troy on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TROY OffUSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #114 #91
ExplosiveExp #39 #65
PPAPPA #110 #112
PowerPwr #116 #123
SP+SP+ #95 #98
Pts POPPO #72 #76
HavocHav #128 #114
Troy Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TROY OffUSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #112 #99
Run ExplRExp #114 #105
PPAExp #117 #124
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #90 #116
Stuff RateStuff #126 #108
TackleTak - NR
Troy Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TROY OffUSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #106 #70
Pass ExplPExl #26 #24
PPAExp #111 #62
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #126 #127
DB HavocDB #117 #57
Utah State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatUSU OffTROY Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #91 #48
ExplosiveExp #18 #86
PPAPPA #47 #48
PowerPwr #89 #90
SP+SP+ #53 #84
Pts POPPO #16 #30
HavocHav #87 #54
Utah State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
USU OffTROY Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #89 #57
Run ExplRExp #9 #67
PPAExp #31 #65
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #81 #96
Stuff RateStuff #91 #58
TackleTak - NR
Utah State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatUSU OffTROY Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #85 #41
Pass ExplPExl #67 #120
PPAExp #70 #34
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #119 #38
DB HavocDB #28 #75
Program Comparison
USU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'26 Profile: Up to Top G5

TROY 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Romney Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
TROY's OC Sean Reagan (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tucker Kilcrease13022259%1537966.9
Evan Crenshaw11100%110011.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Lovett8933923.822
Tucker Kilcrease11612651.134
Dennis Palmer104004.011
Trevor Pearson123803.224
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Lovett138606.626
TJ Lott (Tr)884110.534
Marquez Dortch76309.019
Jackson Worley75718.113

View Troy's Full Roster

TROY's DC Dontae Wright (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Justin Powe751001
Donnie Smith44141172
TJ Thompson443100
Elijah Davis446320
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Donnie Smith44141172
Jamel Fils-Aime244310
Elijah Davis446320
Ty Clemons (Tr)61110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jonathan Pennix (Tr)200006
Donnie Smith44141172
Luke Hodge423022

USU's OC Kevin McGiven (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Anthony Garcia6786%794011.3
McCae Hillstead (Tr)4580%33006.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Javen Jacobs6542956.658
Sesi Vailahi (Tr)4215223.614
Noah White259303.720
Anthony Garcia117516.817
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Javon Robinson (Tr)58599410.346
Javen Jacobs4337938.830
Anthony Garcia20348217.474
Eli Wood (Tr)16205212.838

View Utah State's Full Roster

USU's DC Nick Howell (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brevin Hamblin1103208
Bronson Olevao888463
Carson Tujague714151
Tyree Morris466411
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyree Morris466411
Chris Joe416431
Bronson Olevao888463
Brevin Hamblin1103208
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brevin Hamblin1103208
Bronson Olevao888463
Noah Flores261102