Illinois at Michigan State - 2026 Matchup Preview

Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan State Spartans

Saturday, October 10th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Spartan Stadium - East Lansing, MI

Fighting Illini (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bret Bielema (37 - 26)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (27 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 0 - 0 (#1)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MSU is playing their 6th straight game
ILL is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Illinois -10.5 (SP+ ILL -16.5)
Projected Score: ILL: 33 - MSU: 23 (56)
ILL Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
ILL Travel: 266 miles, 1 hrs behind

Spartans (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Pat Fitzgerald (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 25 - 30 (25 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 0 - 0 (#1)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ILL Players
MSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Illinois's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Illinois vs UAB	-30.5
Sat 9/12	Illinois vs Duke	-9
Sat 9/19	Illinois vs Southern Illinois	-34.5
Sat 9/26	Illinois at Ohio State	+21
Sat 10/3	Illinois vs Purdue	-16.5
Sat 10/10	Illinois at Michigan State	-10.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/24	Illinois vs Oregon	+12
Sat 10/31	Illinois at Maryland	-6.5
Sat 11/7	Illinois vs Nebraska	-8
Sat 11/14	Illinois at UCLA	-10.5
Sat 11/21	Illinois vs Iowa	+0.5
Sat 11/28	Illinois vs Northwestern	-10

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Illinois's Schedule

Michigan State's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Michigan State vs Toledo	-3
Sat 9/12	Michigan State vs Eastern Michigan	-13
Sat 9/19	Michigan State at Notre Dame	+31
Sat 9/26	Michigan State vs Nebraska	+5
Sat 10/3	Michigan State at Wisconsin	+3.5
Sat 10/10	Michigan State vs Illinois	+10.5
Sat 10/17	Michigan State vs Northwestern	+3
Sat 10/24	Michigan State at UCLA	+2.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/7	Michigan State at Michigan	+20
Sat 11/14	Michigan State vs Washington	+18
Sat 11/21	Michigan State vs Oregon	+25
Sat 11/28	Michigan State at Rutgers	+3.5

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ILL	#39 (.21)	48% (15)	29.4	48% (15)	3.04 (52)	138	48% (14)	236	4.21 (29)	#96 (.2)	45% (114)	23.6	41% (53)	49% (133)	4.33 (125)	39.5	0.8	1.2
MSU	#97 (.12)	42% (79)	24.6	42% (84)	2.56 (128)	123	42% (67)	223	3.75 (64)	#104 (.21)	45% (115)	29.9	47% (121)	44% (103)	3.91 (93)	44.9	1	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ILL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ILL Offense	13	29.4	26.6	47.8%	4.21	0.8	21	374	138	236	3.9	51%	48%	48%	48%	16%	.21
MSU Defense	12	29.9	27.8	45.2%	3.91	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	49%	49%	47%	44%	14%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ILL Defense	13	23.6	35.6	45.2%	4.33	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	44%	54%	41%	49%	15%	.2
MSU Offense	12	24.6	24.8	41.7%	3.75	1	19	345	123	223	3.8	47%	51%	42%	42%	18%	.12

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Illinois	13	30:54	21.2	42%	57%	4.6	39.5	0.8	1.2	4.9	2.2	1	30.3
Michigan State	12	30:11	18.8	35%	44%	5.3	44.9	1	0.8	4.7	1.8	1	27.3

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ILL Offense	13	51% (59)	48% (15)	35.2	138.2	3.9	21 (40)	.08 (87)	3.04 (52)	73% (56)	10% (87)	0.8 (131)
MSU Defense	12	49% (53)	47% (121)	-	-	-	-	.16 (101)	2.87 (66)	81% (125)	9% (97)	0.91 (44)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ILL Defense	13	44% (10)	41% (53)	-	-	-	-	.07 (50)	2.88 (70)	75% (97)	9% (80)	0.92 (51)
MSU Offense	12	47% (90)	42% (84)	32.3	122.7	3.8	16 (60)	.06 (96)	2.56 (128)	65% (109)	13% (131)	0.95 (73)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ILL Offense	13	48% (76)	48% (14)	19.3	28.6	235.8	8.2	12.2	23 (33)	6 (7)	.41 (21)	1.6 (56)	29% (34)	37% (14)	.37 (43)	6% (51)	1.9 (111)
MSU Defense	12	49% (83)	44% (103)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (100)	.32 (103)	1.5 (34)	29% (111)	30% (74)	.33 (86)	5% (114)	2.1 (88)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ILL Defense	13	54% (122)	49% (133)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (123)	.32 (102)	1.3 (5)	28% (126)	36% (130)	.39 (112)	6% (67)	2 (62)
MSU Offense	12	51% (52)	42% (67)	20	31.5	222.7	7.1	11.1	20 (50)	6 (34)	.24 (74)	1.4 (112)	30% (54)	30% (78)	.37 (44)	5% (23)	2.1 (49)

Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: 9.00 #28
Illinois's Offense Rating: 16.72 #27
Illinois's Defense Rating: 12.72 #36
2026 Talent Rating: 876.00 #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #24
Illinois's 2026 Expected Record: 0.0 - 0.0
Illinois's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.9 #24
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #27
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.7 #41

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 896.78
Average Power Five Talent: 885.22
Average FBS Talent: 707.18

Power Ratings Matchup
Illinois: 9.00 Michigan State: 0.675

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Illinois: 12.9 Michigan State: -3.4

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: 0.675 #60
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 12.05 #61
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 17.30 #69
2026 Talent Rating: 786.00 #59
Blue Chip Ratio: 12 #6
Michigan State's 2026 Expected Record: 0.0 - 0.0
Michigan State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.4 #82
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #70
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #81

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 896.78
Average Power Five Talent: 885.22
Average FBS Talent: 707.18

Illinois Scoring
Offense: 29.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.6
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.6

Illinois's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Illinois 33
Michigan State 23

Projected Total Points: 56

Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 24.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.8
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Michigan State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/16	Illinois	38	Michigan State	16	Illinois -2	Illinois	47.5	Over
2022	11/05	Illinois	15	Michigan State	23	Illinois -16.5	Michigan State	41.0	Under
2019	11/09	Michigan State	34	Illinois	37	Michigan State -15.5	Illinois	48.0	Over
2016	11/05	Illinois	31	Michigan State	27	Michigan State -7	Illinois	47.5	Over
2013	10/26	Illinois	3	Michigan State	42	Michigan State -13	Michigan State	0
2010	10/16	Michigan State	26	Illinois	6
2009	10/10	Illinois	14	Michigan State	24
2006	09/30	Michigan State	20	Illinois	23
2005	09/24	Illinois	14	Michigan State	61
2004	10/09	Michigan State	38	Illinois	25
2003	10/11	Illinois	14	Michigan State	49
2000	10/27	Michigan State	14	Illinois	10

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Michigan State	8	2	3 Overs
Illinois	4	3	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 7	2 - 3	1 - 2	1 - 1
Road Teams	7 - 5	3 - 2	1 - 1	2 - 1

(#28) ILL at (#60) MSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ILL	MSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#28	#60
SP+SP+	#24	#82
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#30	#59
Blue ChipsBC%	#24	#6

Illinois Injury Report

Michigan State Injury Report

Illinois on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	ILL Off	MSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#15	#115
ExplosiveExp	#118	#30
PPAPPA	#39	#104
PowerPwr	#27	#69
SP+SP+	#27	#81
Pts POPPO	#29	#93
HavocHav	#70	#110

Illinois Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	ILL Off	MSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#15	#121
Run ExplRExp	#131	#44
PPAExp	#87	#101
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#52	#66
Stuff RateStuff	#81	#104
TackleTak	-	NR

Illinois Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	ILL Off	MSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#14	#103
Pass ExplPExl	#56	#34
PPAExp	#21	#103
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#87	#97
DB HavocDB	#51	#114

Michigan State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	ILL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#79	#114
ExplosiveExp	#97	#37
PPAPPA	#97	#96
PowerPwr	#61	#36
SP+SP+	#70	#41
Pts POPPO	#64	#125
HavocHav	#115	#75

Michigan State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	ILL Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#84	#53
Run ExplRExp	#73	#51
PPAExp	#96	#50
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#128	#70
Stuff RateStuff	#132	#70
TackleTak	-	NR

Michigan State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	ILL Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#67	#133
Pass ExplPExl	#112	#5
PPAExp	#74	#102
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#131	#80
DB HavocDB	#23	#67

Program Comparison
MSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'26 Profile: Remains Average G5

ILL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'26 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
Illinois beat Michigan State in 2024 (38-16)

ILL's OC Barry Lunney Jr. (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Katin Houser (Tr)	269	408	66%	3300	19	6	8.1
Ty Robinson (Tr)	2	3	67%	77	0	0	25.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ca'Lil Valentine	131	614	4	4.7	25
Kaden Feagin	122	507	7	4.2	26
Aidan Laughery	75	382	3	5.1	57
Katin Houser (Tr)	85	193	9	2.3	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Alex Perry (Tr)	56	840	9	15.0	64
Jayshon Platt (Tr)	46	720	5	15.7	48
Collin Dixon	35	548	5	15.7	61
Hudson Clement	36	454	3	12.6	27

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC Aaron Henry (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matthew Bailey	76	4	0	1	2
Robert Edmonson (Tr)	47	4	1	5	0
William Holmes (Tr)	45	7	2	5	0
James Thompson Jr.	40	3	2	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darrell Prater (Tr)	21	4	4	0	0
William Holmes (Tr)	45	7	2	5	0
James Thompson Jr.	40	3	2	2	1
Joe Barna	20	2	2	1	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jaheim Clarke	30	1	7
James Kreutz	30	4	3
Deuce Fillmore (Tr)	39	0	3

MSU's OC Nick Sheridan (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Alessio Milivojevic	111	173	64%	1267	10	3	7.3
Cam Fancher (Tr)	41	72	57%	333	0	0	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Camryn Edwards	210	1240	15	5.9	73
Brandon Tullis	68	297	4	4.4	35
Jaziun Patterson (Tr)	60	296	0	4.9	17
Cam Fancher (Tr)	31	170	1	5.5	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chrishon Mccray	24	330	3	13.8	45
Camryn Edwards	19	186	1	9.8	34
KK Smith (Tr)	8	123	2	15.4	34
Brandon Tullis	11	82	0	7.5	24

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Joe Rossi (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Hall	88	5	3	2	1
Kenny Soares Jr. (Tr)	80	4	1	6	2
Dion Crawford (Tr)	79	5	4	3	1
Malik Spencer	52	3	2	1	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dion Crawford (Tr)	79	5	4	3	1
Jordan Hall	88	5	3	2	1
Malik Spencer	52	3	2	1	5
Anelu Lafaele	7	2	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Malik Spencer	52	3	2	1	5
Michael Richard Jr.	38	5	0	0	3
Tre Bell (Tr)	36	4	0	0	2