Wed, Jan 1 2025
·
Postseason
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 Rose Bowl
Pasadena, CA
·
Turf
·
92,542 cap
Ohio State✈ 1,965 mi-3 hr TZ
Oregon✈ 732 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Ohio State,
while Game Control favors Oregon.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Ohio State wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Oregon wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Ohio State -2.5
O/U 55.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Ohio State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Ohio State 2024 Schedule
Ohio State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Ohio State vs Akron | -50.5W52–6 | 58.5 | W52–6 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Ohio State vs Western Michigan | -37.5W56–0 | 54.5 | W56–0 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Ohio State vs Marshall | -40.0W49–14 | 57.0 | W49–14 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Ohio State at Michigan State | -23.5W38–7 | 48.5 | W38–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Ohio State vs Iowa | -17.0W35–7 | 46.0 | W35–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Ohio State at Oregon | -3.5L31–32 | 54.5 | L31–32 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/26 | Ohio State vs Nebraska | -25.0W21–17 | 48.5 | W21–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Ohio State at Penn State | -3.0W20–13 | 47.5 | W20–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Ohio State vs Purdue | -37.5W45–0 | 55.5 | W45–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Ohio State vs Northwestern | -28.0W31–7 | 43.5 | W31–7 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Ohio State vs Indiana | -10.5W38–15 | 52.5 | W38–15 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Ohio State vs Michigan | -20.5L10–13 | 41.5 | L10–13 | U | N |
| Sat 12/21 | Ohio State vs Tennessee | -7.5W42–17 | 47.0 | W42–17 | O | Y |
| Wed 1/1 | Ohio State vs Oregon | -2.5W41–21 | 55.5 | W41–21 | O | Y |
| Fri 1/10 | Ohio State vs Texas | -6.5W28–14 | 51.5 | W28–14 | U | Y |
| Mon 1/20 | Ohio State vs Notre Dame | -8.5W34–23 | 45.5 | W34–23 | O | Y |
Oregon 2024 Schedule
Oregon's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Oregon vs Idaho | -31.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/7 | Oregon vs Boise State | -17.5W37–34 | 60.5 | W37–34 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Oregon at Oregon State | -16.0W49–14 | 50.0 | W49–14 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/28 | Oregon at UCLA | -23.5W34–13 | 54.5 | W34–13 | U | N |
| Fri 10/4 | Oregon vs Michigan State | -22.5W31–10 | 53.0 | W31–10 | U | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Oregon vs Ohio State | +3.5W32–31 | 54.5 | W32–31 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/18 | Oregon at Purdue | -30.0W35–0 | 61.0 | W35–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Oregon vs Illinois | -22.5W38–9 | 54.0 | W38–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Oregon at Michigan | -14.5W38–17 | 45.5 | W38–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Oregon vs Maryland | -24.0W39–18 | 58.0 | W39–18 | U | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Oregon at Wisconsin | -13.5W16–13 | 49.5 | W16–13 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/30 | Oregon vs Washington | -17.5W49–21 | 50.5 | W49–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/7 | Oregon vs Penn State | -3.5W45–37 | 51.5 | W45–37 | O | Y |
| Wed 1/1 | Oregon vs Ohio State | +2.5L21–41 | 55.5 | L21–41 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ohio State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Ohio State Edge
Ohio State +0.24
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Oregon Edge
Oregon +4.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 13 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Ohio State
Ryan Day #1
56–8 (88%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Chip Kelly
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jim Knowles
Yr 3
#1
Oregon
Dan Lanning #1
22–5 (82%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Junior Adams
Yr 2
#1
DC
Tosh Lupoi
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓