Sat, Aug 31 2024
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Ohio Stadium
Columbus, OH
·
Turf
·
104,944 cap
Akron✈ 108 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Ohio State -50.5
O/U 58.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Ohio State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Akron 2024 Schedule
Akron's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Akron at Ohio State | +50.5L6–52 | 58.5 | L6–52 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Akron at Rutgers | +24.5L17–49 | 41.5 | L17–49 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Akron vs Colgate | -13.5W31–20 | 48.5 | W31–20 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Akron at South Carolina | +25.0L7–50 | 42.0 | L7–50 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Akron at Ohio | +8.5L10–30 | 46.0 | L10–30 | U | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Akron vs Bowling Green | +17.0L20–27 | 48.5 | L20–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Akron at Western Michigan | +9.5L24–34 | 48.5 | L24–34 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/26 | Akron vs Eastern Michigan | +2.5W25–21 | 50.5 | W25–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Akron vs Buffalo | -1.0L30–41 | 49.0 | L30–41 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/13 | Akron at Northern Illinois | +14.0L16–29 | 43.5 | L16–29 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/19 | Akron at Kent State | -10.5W38–17 | 49.0 | W38–17 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/26 | Akron vs Toledo | +9.5W21–14 | 50.5 | W21–14 | U | Y |
Ohio State 2024 Schedule
Ohio State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Ohio State vs Akron | -50.5W52–6 | 58.5 | W52–6 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Ohio State vs Western Michigan | -37.5W56–0 | 54.5 | W56–0 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Ohio State vs Marshall | -40.0W49–14 | 57.0 | W49–14 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Ohio State at Michigan State | -23.5W38–7 | 48.5 | W38–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Ohio State vs Iowa | -17.0W35–7 | 46.0 | W35–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Ohio State at Oregon | -3.5L31–32 | 54.5 | L31–32 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/26 | Ohio State vs Nebraska | -25.0W21–17 | 48.5 | W21–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Ohio State at Penn State | -3.0W20–13 | 47.5 | W20–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Ohio State vs Purdue | -37.5W45–0 | 55.5 | W45–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Ohio State vs Northwestern | -28.0W31–7 | 43.5 | W31–7 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Ohio State vs Indiana | -10.5W38–15 | 52.5 | W38–15 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Ohio State vs Michigan | -20.5L10–13 | 41.5 | L10–13 | U | N |
| Sat 12/21 | Ohio State vs Tennessee | -7.5W42–17 | 47.0 | W42–17 | O | Y |
| Wed 1/1 | Ohio State vs Oregon | -2.5W41–21 | 55.5 | W41–21 | O | Y |
| Fri 1/10 | Ohio State vs Texas | -6.5W28–14 | 51.5 | W28–14 | U | Y |
| Mon 1/20 | Ohio State vs Notre Dame | -8.5W34–23 | 45.5 | W34–23 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Ohio State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Ohio State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ohio State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Akron Edge
Akron +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Akron Edge
Akron +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Ohio State
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Ohio State
71.4 — 11.0 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Ohio State won by 46
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Ohio State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Akron
Joe Moorhead #1
4–20 (17%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Taylor Housewright
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tim Tibesar
Yr 3
#1
Ohio State
Ryan Day #1
56–8 (88%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Chip Kelly
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jim Knowles
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓