Sat, Dec 7 2024
·
Week 15
·
🏟 Albertsons Stadium
Boise, ID
·
Turf
·
36,387 cap
UNLV✈ 516 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Boise State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Boise State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Boise State wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Boise State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Boise State -3.5
O/U 57.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Boise State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
UNLV 2024 Schedule
UNLV's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | UNLV at Houston | +3.0W27–7 | 56.0 | W27–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | UNLV vs Utah Tech | -41.5W72–14 | 55.5 | W72–14 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/13 | UNLV vs Kansas | +7.0W23–20 | 57.0 | W23–20 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/28 | UNLV vs Fresno State | -2.5W59–14 | 51.0 | W59–14 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/4 | UNLV vs Syracuse | -5.5L41–44 | 55.5 | L41–44 | O | N |
| Fri 10/11 | UNLV at Utah State | -19.0W50–34 | 67.5 | W50–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | UNLV at Oregon State | -6.5W33–25 | 61.0 | W33–25 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/25 | UNLV vs Boise State | +4.0L24–29 | 64.0 | L24–29 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | UNLV at Hawai'i | -12.0W29–27 | 51.5 | W29–27 | O | N |
| Sat 11/16 | UNLV vs San Diego State | -22.0W41–20 | 55.5 | W41–20 | O | N |
| Fri 11/22 | UNLV at San José State | -7.5W27–16 | 59.5 | W27–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | UNLV vs Nevada | -17.5W38–14 | 54.5 | W38–14 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/6 | UNLV at Boise State | +3.5L7–21 | 57.5 | L7–21 | U | N |
| Wed 12/18 | UNLV vs California | -3.0W24–13 | 45.0 | W24–13 | U | Y |
Boise State 2024 Schedule
Boise State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Boise State at Georgia Southern | -13.0W56–45 | 57.5 | W56–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Boise State at Oregon | +17.5L34–37 | 60.5 | L34–37 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Boise State vs Portland State | -43.0W56–14 | 69.5 | W56–14 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Boise State vs Washington State | -6.5W45–24 | 66.0 | W45–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Boise State vs Utah State | -28.0W62–30 | 66.5 | W62–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Boise State at Hawai'i | -21.0W28–7 | 60.0 | W28–7 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/25 | Boise State at UNLV | -4.0W29–24 | 64.0 | W29–24 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/1 | Boise State vs San Diego State | -24.5W56–24 | 55.5 | W56–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Boise State vs Nevada | -23.5W28–21 | 60.5 | W28–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Boise State at San José State | -14.5W42–21 | 62.0 | W42–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Boise State at Wyoming | -22.0W17–13 | 54.0 | W17–13 | U | N |
| Fri 11/29 | Boise State vs Oregon State | -17.5W34–18 | 58.5 | W34–18 | U | N |
| Fri 12/6 | Boise State vs UNLV | -3.5W21–7 | 57.5 | W21–7 | U | Y |
| Tue 12/31 | Boise State vs Penn State | +11.5L14–31 | 54.5 | L14–31 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Boise State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Boise State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Boise State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Boise State Edge
Boise State +0.55
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Boise State Edge
Boise State +2.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Boise State
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Boise State
76.1 — 9.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Boise State won by 14
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Boise State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
UNLV
Barry Odom #1
9–5 (64%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Brennan Marion
Yr 2
#1
DC
Michael Scherer
Yr 2
#1
Boise State
Spencer Danielson #1
3–1 (75%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Dirk Koetter
Yr 1
#1
DC
Erik Chinander
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓