Sun, Sep 22 2024
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Week 4
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🏟 Albertsons Stadium
Boise, ID
·
Turf
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36,387 cap
Portland State✈ 356 mi+1 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2024 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2023 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Boise State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Boise State -43
O/U 69.5
DraftKings
Portland State 2024 Schedule
Portland State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Portland State at Washington State | +26.5L30–70 | 57.5 | L30–70 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Portland State at Boise State | +43.0L14–56 | 69.5 | L14–56 | O | Y |
Boise State 2024 Schedule
Boise State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Boise State at Georgia Southern | -13.0W56–45 | 57.5 | W56–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Boise State at Oregon | +17.5L34–37 | 60.5 | L34–37 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Boise State vs Portland State | -43.0W56–14 | 69.5 | W56–14 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Boise State vs Washington State | -6.5W45–24 | 66.0 | W45–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Boise State vs Utah State | -28.0W62–30 | 66.5 | W62–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Boise State at Hawai'i | -21.0W28–7 | 60.0 | W28–7 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/25 | Boise State at UNLV | -4.0W29–24 | 64.0 | W29–24 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/1 | Boise State vs San Diego State | -24.5W56–24 | 55.5 | W56–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Boise State vs Nevada | -23.5W28–21 | 60.5 | W28–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Boise State at San José State | -14.5W42–21 | 62.0 | W42–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Boise State at Wyoming | -22.0W17–13 | 54.0 | W17–13 | U | N |
| Fri 11/29 | Boise State vs Oregon State | -17.5W34–18 | 58.5 | W34–18 | U | N |
| Fri 12/6 | Boise State vs UNLV | -3.5W21–7 | 57.5 | W21–7 | U | Y |
| Tue 12/31 | Boise State vs Penn State | +11.5L14–31 | 54.5 | L14–31 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Portland State Edge
Portland State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Boise State Edge
Boise State +48.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓