Liberty at Western Kentucky Week 9 College Football Matchup Liberty at Western Kentucky Matchup - Week 9
Tue, Oct 24 2023 · Week 9 · 🏟 Houchens Industries-L. T. Smith Stadium Bowling Green, KY · Turf · 22,113 cap
Liberty✈ 401 mi-1 hr TZ
Away
42 29
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Liberty
35
Western Kentucky
27
P&R Line Liberty -8
P&R Total O/U 61.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Liberty -4 · O/U 61.5
Matchup Prediction
Liberty has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Liberty entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Liberty wins
Solid
Game Control
58.3%
Liberty wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Liberty -4
O/U 61.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Liberty · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Liberty 2023 Schedule
Liberty's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Liberty vs Bowling Green-8.5W34–2448.5W34–24OY
Sat 9/9Liberty vs New Mexico State-9.0W33–1754.5W33–17UY
Sat 9/16Liberty at Buffalo-2.5W55–2754.0W55–27OY
Sat 9/23Liberty at Florida International-10.0W38–654.0W38–6UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/5Liberty vs Sam Houston-21.0W21–1646.5W21–16UN
Tue 10/10Liberty at Jacksonville State-7.0W31–1359.5W31–13UY
Tue 10/17Liberty vs Middle Tennessee-16.0W42–3556.5W42–35ON
Tue 10/24Liberty at Western Kentucky-4.0W42–2961.5W42–29OY
Sat 11/4Liberty vs Louisiana Tech-16.5W56–3058.0W56–30OY
Sat 11/11Liberty vs Old Dominion-13.5W38–1058.5W38–10UY
Sat 11/18Liberty vs Massachusetts-26.5W49–2564.5W49–25ON
Sat 11/25Liberty at UTEP-18.0W42–2854.5W42–28ON
Fri 12/1Liberty vs New Mexico State-10.5W49–3554.0W49–35OY
Mon 1/1Liberty vs Oregon+18.5L6–4571.5L6–45UN
Western Kentucky 2023 Schedule
Western Kentucky's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Western Kentucky vs South Florida-13.5W41–2471.5W41–24UY
Sat 9/9Western Kentucky vs Houston Christian-41.5W52–2264.5W52–22ON
Sat 9/16Western Kentucky at Ohio State+29.5L10–6365.0L10–63ON
Sat 9/23Western Kentucky at Troy+3.5L24–2757.0L24–27UY
Thu 9/28Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee-6.5W31–1061.0W31–10UY
Thu 10/5Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech-6.0W35–2859.0W35–28OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/17Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State-7.5L17–2060.5L17–20UN
Tue 10/24Western Kentucky vs Liberty+4.0L29–4261.5L29–42ON
Sat 11/4Western Kentucky at UTEP-9.5W21–1354.5W21–13UN
Sat 11/11Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State-4.5L29–3855.5L29–38ON
Sat 11/18Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston-12.5W28–2352.0W28–23UN
Sat 11/25Western Kentucky at Florida International-11.5W41–2854.0W41–28OY
Mon 12/18Western Kentucky vs Old Dominion+4.0W38–3549.0W38–35OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Liberty PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Liberty
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Liberty #3
+0.625
Western Kentucky #47
+0.388
Liberty Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Liberty #2
+0.916
Western Kentucky #42
+0.580
Liberty Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Liberty #30
0.181
Western Kentucky #114
0.143
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Liberty Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Liberty #20
+8.536
Western Kentucky #6
+8.577
Western Kentucky Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Liberty #3
+0.982
Western Kentucky #92
+0.823
Liberty Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Liberty #40
69.6
Western Kentucky #102
71.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Liberty Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Liberty Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Liberty
-2.9
Western Kentucky
-5.5
Offense Rating
Liberty
14.1
Western Kentucky
11.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Liberty
17.0
Western Kentucky
17.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Liberty Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Liberty #25
1.86
Western Kentucky #100
0.83
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Liberty #99
0.29
Western Kentucky #77
1.00
Liberty +1.02
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Liberty Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Liberty #1
63.4
Western Kentucky #1
58.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Liberty #11
18.8
Western Kentucky #43
27.7
Liberty +5.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Liberty. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Liberty
Jamey Chadwell #1
3–0 (100%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Newland Isaac Yr 1 #1
DC Jack Curtis Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Western Kentucky
Tyson Helton #1
34–22 (61%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Drew Hollingshead Yr 1 #1
DC Tyson Summers Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself