Massachusetts at Liberty Week 12 College Football Matchup Massachusetts at Liberty Matchup - Week 12
Sat, Nov 18 2023 · Week 12 · 🏟 Williams Stadium Lynchburg, VA · Turf · 19,200 cap
Massachusetts✈ 494 miSame TZ
25 49
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Massachusetts
19
Liberty
45
P&R Line Liberty -26
P&R Total O/U 63
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Liberty -26.5 · O/U 64.5
Matchup Prediction
Liberty has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Liberty entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Liberty wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Liberty wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Liberty -26.5
O/U 64.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Liberty · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Liberty 3rd straight Home Game 🛋 Massachusetts Coming off BYE
Massachusetts 2023 Schedule
Massachusetts's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26Massachusetts at New Mexico State+7.0W41–3045.5W41–30OY
Sat 9/2Massachusetts at Auburn+35.0L14–5952.0L14–59ON
Sat 9/9Massachusetts vs Miami (OH)+7.0L28–4145.0L28–41ON
Sat 9/16Massachusetts at Eastern Michigan+7.0L17–1950.0L17–19UY
Sat 9/23Massachusetts vs New Mexico-3.5L31–3448.5L31–34ON
Sat 9/30Massachusetts vs Arkansas State-2.5L28–5255.5L28–52ON
Sat 10/7Massachusetts vs Toledo+19.0L24–4155.5L24–41OY
Sat 10/14Massachusetts at Penn State+42.0L0–6355.0L0–63ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/28Massachusetts at Army+10.0W21–1449.5W21–14UY
Sat 11/4Massachusetts vs Merrimack-16.5W31–2157.5W31–21UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/18Massachusetts at Liberty+26.5L25–4964.5L25–49OY
Sat 11/25Massachusetts vs UConn-2.5L18–3151.0L18–31UN
Liberty 2023 Schedule
Liberty's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Liberty vs Bowling Green-8.5W34–2448.5W34–24OY
Sat 9/9Liberty vs New Mexico State-9.0W33–1754.5W33–17UY
Sat 9/16Liberty at Buffalo-2.5W55–2754.0W55–27OY
Sat 9/23Liberty at Florida International-10.0W38–654.0W38–6UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/5Liberty vs Sam Houston-21.0W21–1646.5W21–16UN
Tue 10/10Liberty at Jacksonville State-7.0W31–1359.5W31–13UY
Tue 10/17Liberty vs Middle Tennessee-16.0W42–3556.5W42–35ON
Tue 10/24Liberty at Western Kentucky-4.0W42–2961.5W42–29OY
Sat 11/4Liberty vs Louisiana Tech-16.5W56–3058.0W56–30OY
Sat 11/11Liberty vs Old Dominion-13.5W38–1058.5W38–10UY
Sat 11/18Liberty vs Massachusetts-26.5W49–2564.5W49–25ON
Sat 11/25Liberty at UTEP-18.0W42–2854.5W42–28ON
Fri 12/1Liberty vs New Mexico State-10.5W49–3554.0W49–35OY
Mon 1/1Liberty vs Oregon+18.5L6–4571.5L6–45UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Liberty PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Liberty
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Liberty
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Liberty
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Massachusetts #72
+0.349
Liberty #3
+0.734
Liberty Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Massachusetts #99
+0.412
Liberty #2
+0.958
Liberty Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Massachusetts #97
0.150
Liberty #30
0.181
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Liberty Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Massachusetts #82
+7.354
Liberty #20
+8.842
Liberty Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Massachusetts #68
+0.843
Liberty #3
+1.027
Liberty Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Massachusetts #123
73.5
Liberty #40
69.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Liberty Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Liberty Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Massachusetts
-27.8
Liberty
-2.9
Offense Rating
Massachusetts
1.1
Liberty
14.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Massachusetts
29.1
Liberty
17.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Liberty Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Massachusetts #115
0.44
Liberty #25
1.70
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Massachusetts #130
1.89
Liberty #99
0.20
Liberty +1.26
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Liberty Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Massachusetts #1
27.1
Liberty #1
66.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Massachusetts #132
57.9
Liberty #11
16.3
Liberty +38.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Liberty
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Liberty
89.9 — 5.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Liberty won by 24
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Liberty with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Massachusetts
Don Brown #1
2–14 (13%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Steve Casula Yr 2 #1
DC Keith Dudzinski Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Liberty
Jamey Chadwell #1
3–0 (100%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Newland Isaac Yr 1 #1
DC Jack Curtis Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself