Sat, Sep 2 2023
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Week 1
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🏟 Autzen Stadium
Eugene, OR
·
Turf
·
54,000 cap
Portland State✈ 103 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2023 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2022 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Oregon wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Oregon -48
O/U 64.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Portland State 2023 Schedule
Portland State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Portland State at Oregon | +48.0L7–81 | 64.5 | L7–81 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Portland State at Wyoming | +28.0L17–31 | 51.0 | L17–31 | U | Y |
Oregon 2023 Schedule
Oregon's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Oregon vs Portland State | -48.0W81–7 | 64.5 | W81–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Oregon at Texas Tech | -4.5W38–30 | 70.0 | W38–30 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Oregon vs Hawai'i | -38.5W55–10 | 67.5 | W55–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Oregon vs Colorado | -21.0W42–6 | 70.0 | W42–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Oregon at Stanford | -27.0W42–6 | 59.5 | W42–6 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Oregon at Washington | +3.0L33–36 | 67.0 | L33–36 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Oregon vs Washington State | -19.5W38–24 | 60.5 | W38–24 | O | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Oregon at Utah | -6.5W35–6 | 47.5 | W35–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Oregon vs California | -26.5W63–19 | 61.5 | W63–19 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Oregon vs USC | -12.5W36–27 | 78.5 | W36–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Oregon at Arizona State | -21.5W49–13 | 52.5 | W49–13 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/24 | Oregon vs Oregon State | -14.0W31–7 | 61.5 | W31–7 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/1 | Oregon vs Washington | -9.0L31–34 | 67.0 | L31–34 | U | N |
| Mon 1/1 | Oregon vs Liberty | -18.5W45–6 | 71.5 | W45–6 | U | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Portland State Edge
Portland State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Oregon Edge
Oregon +58.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓