Sat, Oct 21 2023
·
Week 8
·
🏟 Autzen Stadium
Eugene, OR
·
Turf
·
54,000 cap
Washington State✈ 340 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Oregon
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Oregon entering this game.
Momentum Control
78.1%
Oregon wins
Strong
Game Control
50.6%
Oregon wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Oregon -19.5
O/U 60.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Oregon
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Washington State 2023 Schedule
Washington State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Washington State at Colorado State | -9.5W50–24 | 54.0 | W50–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Washington State vs Wisconsin | +5.0W31–22 | 58.0 | W31–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Washington State vs Northern Colorado | -48.0W64–21 | 55.0 | W64–21 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Washington State vs Oregon State | +3.0W38–35 | 58.5 | W38–35 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/7 | Washington State at UCLA | +3.0L17–25 | 60.0 | L17–25 | U | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Washington State vs Arizona | -7.5L6–44 | 57.5 | L6–44 | U | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Washington State at Oregon | +19.5L24–38 | 60.5 | L24–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Washington State at Arizona State | -4.5L27–38 | 49.0 | L27–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Washington State vs Stanford | -13.0L7–10 | 59.5 | L7–10 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Washington State at California | +1.5L39–42 | 58.5 | L39–42 | O | N |
| Fri 11/17 | Washington State vs Colorado | -4.5W56–14 | 59.5 | W56–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Washington State at Washington | +16.0L21–24 | 68.5 | L21–24 | U | Y |
Oregon 2023 Schedule
Oregon's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Oregon vs Portland State | -48.0W81–7 | 64.5 | W81–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Oregon at Texas Tech | -4.5W38–30 | 70.0 | W38–30 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Oregon vs Hawai'i | -38.5W55–10 | 67.5 | W55–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Oregon vs Colorado | -21.0W42–6 | 70.0 | W42–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Oregon at Stanford | -27.0W42–6 | 59.5 | W42–6 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Oregon at Washington | +3.0L33–36 | 67.0 | L33–36 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Oregon vs Washington State | -19.5W38–24 | 60.5 | W38–24 | O | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Oregon at Utah | -6.5W35–6 | 47.5 | W35–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Oregon vs California | -26.5W63–19 | 61.5 | W63–19 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Oregon vs USC | -12.5W36–27 | 78.5 | W36–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Oregon at Arizona State | -21.5W49–13 | 52.5 | W49–13 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/24 | Oregon vs Oregon State | -14.0W31–7 | 61.5 | W31–7 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/1 | Oregon vs Washington | -9.0L31–34 | 67.0 | L31–34 | U | N |
| Mon 1/1 | Oregon vs Liberty | -18.5W45–6 | 71.5 | W45–6 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Oregon
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Oregon
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Oregon
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Oregon Edge
Oregon +2.80
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 78.1% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Oregon Edge
Oregon +4.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Oregon
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Oregon
54.0 — 18.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Oregon won by 14
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Oregon, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Washington State
Jake Dickert #1
13–9 (59%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Ben Arbuckle
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jeff Schmedding
Yr 1
#1
Oregon
Dan Lanning #1
13–3 (81%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Junior Adams
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tosh Lupoi
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓