Old Dominion at Liberty Week 11 College Football Matchup Old Dominion at Liberty Matchup - Week 11
Sat, Nov 11 2023 · Week 11 · 🏟 Williams Stadium Lynchburg, VA · Turf · 19,200 cap
Old Dominion✈ 161 miSame TZ
10 38
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Old Dominion
19
LIB -13.5
Liberty
39
P&R Line Liberty -20.5
P&R Total O/U 58
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Liberty -13.5 · O/U 58.5
Matchup Prediction
Liberty has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Liberty entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Liberty wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Liberty wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Liberty -13.5
O/U 58.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Liberty · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Liberty 2nd straight Home Game
Old Dominion 2023 Schedule
Old Dominion's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Old Dominion at Virginia Tech+16.0L17–3648.0L17–36ON
Sat 9/9Old Dominion vs Louisiana+6.0W38–3151.0W38–31OY
Sat 9/16Old Dominion vs Wake Forest+13.5L24–2760.0L24–27UY
Sat 9/23Old Dominion vs East Texas A&M-18.5
Sat 9/30Old Dominion at Marshall+14.5L35–4147.0L35–41OY
Sat 10/7Old Dominion at Southern Miss+3.0W17–1356.5W17–13UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/21Old Dominion vs App State+6.0W28–2156.0W28–21UY
Sat 10/28Old Dominion at James Madison+19.5L27–3048.0L27–30OY
Sat 11/4Old Dominion vs Coastal Carolina+1.0L24–2851.0L24–28ON
Sat 11/11Old Dominion at Liberty+13.5L10–3858.5L10–38UN
Sat 11/18Old Dominion at Georgia Southern+4.5W20–1761.5W20–17UY
Sat 11/25Old Dominion vs Georgia State-2.0W25–2449.5W25–24UN
Mon 12/18Old Dominion vs Western Kentucky-4.0L35–3849.0L35–38ON
Liberty 2023 Schedule
Liberty's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Liberty vs Bowling Green-8.5W34–2448.5W34–24OY
Sat 9/9Liberty vs New Mexico State-9.0W33–1754.5W33–17UY
Sat 9/16Liberty at Buffalo-2.5W55–2754.0W55–27OY
Sat 9/23Liberty at Florida International-10.0W38–654.0W38–6UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/5Liberty vs Sam Houston-21.0W21–1646.5W21–16UN
Tue 10/10Liberty at Jacksonville State-7.0W31–1359.5W31–13UY
Tue 10/17Liberty vs Middle Tennessee-16.0W42–3556.5W42–35ON
Tue 10/24Liberty at Western Kentucky-4.0W42–2961.5W42–29OY
Sat 11/4Liberty vs Louisiana Tech-16.5W56–3058.0W56–30OY
Sat 11/11Liberty vs Old Dominion-13.5W38–1058.5W38–10UY
Sat 11/18Liberty vs Massachusetts-26.5W49–2564.5W49–25ON
Sat 11/25Liberty at UTEP-18.0W42–2854.5W42–28ON
Fri 12/1Liberty vs New Mexico State-10.5W49–3554.0W49–35OY
Mon 1/1Liberty vs Oregon+18.5L6–4571.5L6–45UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Liberty PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Liberty
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Liberty
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Liberty
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Old Dominion #102
+0.295
Liberty #3
+0.555
Liberty Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Old Dominion #112
+0.385
Liberty #2
+0.957
Liberty Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Old Dominion #56
0.167
Liberty #30
0.181
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Liberty Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Old Dominion #117
+6.772
Liberty #20
+8.030
Liberty Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Old Dominion #109
+0.808
Liberty #3
+0.983
Liberty Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Old Dominion #80
70.9
Liberty #40
69.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Liberty Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Old Dominion Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Old Dominion
-0.6
Liberty
-2.9
Offense Rating
Old Dominion
13.4
Liberty
15.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Old Dominion
14.0
Liberty
18.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Liberty Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Old Dominion #77
0.63
Liberty #25
1.67
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Old Dominion #23
0.75
Liberty #99
0.22
Liberty +1.04
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Liberty Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Old Dominion #1
38.4
Liberty #1
63.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Old Dominion #69
35.3
Liberty #11
17.5
Liberty +24.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Liberty
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Liberty
91.5 — 5.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Liberty won by 28
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Liberty with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Old Dominion
Ricky Rahne #1
10–18 (36%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Kevin Decker Yr 1 #1
DC Blake Seiler Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Liberty
Jamey Chadwell #1
3–0 (100%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Newland Isaac Yr 1 #1
DC Jack Curtis Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself