Sam Houston at Liberty Week 6 College Football Matchup Sam Houston at Liberty Matchup - Week 6
Thu, Oct 5 2023 · Week 6 · 🏟 Williams Stadium Lynchburg, VA · Turf · 19,200 cap
Sam Houston✈ 1,041 mi+1 hr TZ
16 21
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Sam Houston
13
Liberty
37
P&R Line Liberty -23.5
P&R Total O/U 50
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Liberty -21 · O/U 46.5
Matchup Prediction
Liberty has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Liberty entering this game.
Momentum Control
78.1%
Liberty wins
Strong
Game Control
76%
Liberty wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Liberty -21
O/U 46.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Liberty · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Liberty Coming off BYE
Sam Houston 2023 Schedule
Sam Houston's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Sam Houston at BYU+19.0L0–1446.5L0–14UY
Sat 9/9Sam Houston vs Air Force+13.5L3–1336.5L3–13UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/23Sam Houston at Houston+11.5L7–3837.0L7–38ON
Thu 9/28Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State+6.5L28–3536.5L28–35ON
Thu 10/5Sam Houston at Liberty+21.0L16–2146.5L16–21UY
Wed 10/11Sam Houston at New Mexico State+4.5L13–2743.0L13–27UN
Wed 10/18Sam Houston vs Florida International-6.0L27–3342.0L27–33ON
Wed 10/25Sam Houston vs UTEP-4.0L34–3738.5L34–37ON
Sat 11/4Sam Houston vs Kennesaw State-16.5W24–2141.5W24–21ON
Sat 11/11Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech+8.5W42–2749.5W42–27OY
Sat 11/18Sam Houston at Western Kentucky+12.5L23–2852.0L23–28UY
Sat 11/25Sam Houston vs Middle Tennessee+3.5W23–2049.5W23–20UY
Liberty 2023 Schedule
Liberty's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Liberty vs Bowling Green-8.5W34–2448.5W34–24OY
Sat 9/9Liberty vs New Mexico State-9.0W33–1754.5W33–17UY
Sat 9/16Liberty at Buffalo-2.5W55–2754.0W55–27OY
Sat 9/23Liberty at Florida International-10.0W38–654.0W38–6UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/5Liberty vs Sam Houston-21.0W21–1646.5W21–16UN
Tue 10/10Liberty at Jacksonville State-7.0W31–1359.5W31–13UY
Tue 10/17Liberty vs Middle Tennessee-16.0W42–3556.5W42–35ON
Tue 10/24Liberty at Western Kentucky-4.0W42–2961.5W42–29OY
Sat 11/4Liberty vs Louisiana Tech-16.5W56–3058.0W56–30OY
Sat 11/11Liberty vs Old Dominion-13.5W38–1058.5W38–10UY
Sat 11/18Liberty vs Massachusetts-26.5W49–2564.5W49–25ON
Sat 11/25Liberty at UTEP-18.0W42–2854.5W42–28ON
Fri 12/1Liberty vs New Mexico State-10.5W49–3554.0W49–35OY
Mon 1/1Liberty vs Oregon+18.5L6–4571.5L6–45UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Liberty PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Liberty
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Liberty
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Liberty
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Sam Houston #115
+0.262
Liberty #3
+0.611
Liberty Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Sam Houston #81
+0.472
Liberty #2
+0.883
Liberty Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Sam Houston #117
0.138
Liberty #30
0.181
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Liberty Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Sam Houston #97
+7.092
Liberty #20
+8.305
Liberty Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Sam Houston #118
+0.792
Liberty #3
+0.954
Liberty Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Sam Houston #109
72.0
Liberty #40
69.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Liberty Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Liberty Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Sam Houston
-19.2
Liberty
-2.9
Offense Rating
Sam Houston
4.6
Liberty
14.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Sam Houston
23.8
Liberty
17.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Liberty Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Sam Houston #94
0.25
Liberty #25
2.25
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Sam Houston #27
0.25
Liberty #99
0.25
Liberty +2.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 78.1% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Liberty Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Sam Houston #1
26.3
Liberty #1
80.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Sam Houston #95
52.2
Liberty #11
11.1
Liberty +54.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Liberty with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Sam Houston
K. C. Keeler #1
85–29 (75%) · Yr 10 at school
OC Brad Cornelsen Yr 1 #1
DC Clayton Carlin Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Liberty
Jamey Chadwell #1
3–0 (100%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Newland Isaac Yr 1 #1
DC Jack Curtis Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself