Matchup Prediction
Oregon
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Oregon entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Oregon wins
Solid
Game Control
58.3%
Oregon wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Oregon -6.5
O/U 47.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Oregon
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Oregon 2023 Schedule
Oregon's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Oregon vs Portland State | -48.0W81–7 | 64.5 | W81–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Oregon at Texas Tech | -4.5W38–30 | 70.0 | W38–30 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Oregon vs Hawai'i | -38.5W55–10 | 67.5 | W55–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Oregon vs Colorado | -21.0W42–6 | 70.0 | W42–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Oregon at Stanford | -27.0W42–6 | 59.5 | W42–6 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Oregon at Washington | +3.0L33–36 | 67.0 | L33–36 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Oregon vs Washington State | -19.5W38–24 | 60.5 | W38–24 | O | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Oregon at Utah | -6.5W35–6 | 47.5 | W35–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Oregon vs California | -26.5W63–19 | 61.5 | W63–19 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Oregon vs USC | -12.5W36–27 | 78.5 | W36–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Oregon at Arizona State | -21.5W49–13 | 52.5 | W49–13 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/24 | Oregon vs Oregon State | -14.0W31–7 | 61.5 | W31–7 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/1 | Oregon vs Washington | -9.0L31–34 | 67.0 | L31–34 | U | N |
| Mon 1/1 | Oregon vs Liberty | -18.5W45–6 | 71.5 | W45–6 | U | Y |
Utah 2023 Schedule
Utah's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/31 | Utah vs Florida | -5.5W24–11 | 44.5 | W24–11 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Utah at Baylor | -7.0W20–13 | 46.5 | W20–13 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Utah vs Weber State | -26.5W31–7 | 44.0 | W31–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Utah vs UCLA | -3.0W14–7 | 50.5 | W14–7 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/29 | Utah at Oregon State | +4.0L7–21 | 43.0 | L7–21 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Utah vs California | -9.0W34–14 | 42.5 | W34–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Utah at USC | +7.5W34–32 | 51.5 | W34–32 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Utah vs Oregon | +6.5L6–35 | 47.5 | L6–35 | U | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Utah vs Arizona State | -11.0W55–3 | 40.5 | W55–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Utah at Washington | +9.5L28–35 | 48.5 | L28–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Utah at Arizona | +2.5L18–42 | 45.5 | L18–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Utah vs Colorado | -21.5W23–17 | 43.5 | W23–17 | U | N |
| Sat 12/23 | Utah vs Northwestern | -6.5L7–14 | 44.5 | L7–14 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Oregon
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Oregon
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Oregon
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Oregon Edge
Oregon +1.83
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Oregon Edge
Oregon +8.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Oregon. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Oregon
Dan Lanning #1
13–3 (81%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Junior Adams
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tosh Lupoi
Yr 2
#1
Utah
Kyle Whittingham #1
157–74 (68%)
· Yr 19 at school
OC
Andy Ludwig
Yr 3
#1
DC
Morgan Scalley
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓