Liberty at Buffalo Week 3 College Football Matchup Liberty at Buffalo Matchup - Week 3
Sat, Sep 16 2023 · Week 3 · 🏟 UB Stadium Amherst, NY · Turf · 29,013 cap
Liberty✈ 390 miSame TZ
Away
55 27
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Liberty
37
LIB -2.5
Buffalo
18
P&R Line Liberty -19.5
P&R Total O/U 54.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Liberty -2.5 · O/U 54.0
Matchup Prediction
Liberty has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Liberty entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Liberty wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Liberty wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Liberty -2.5
O/U 54.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Liberty · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Buffalo 2nd straight Home Game
Liberty 2023 Schedule
Liberty's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Liberty vs Bowling Green-8.5W34–2448.5W34–24OY
Sat 9/9Liberty vs New Mexico State-9.0W33–1754.5W33–17UY
Sat 9/16Liberty at Buffalo-2.5W55–2754.0W55–27OY
Sat 9/23Liberty at Florida International-10.0W38–654.0W38–6UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/5Liberty vs Sam Houston-21.0W21–1646.5W21–16UN
Tue 10/10Liberty at Jacksonville State-7.0W31–1359.5W31–13UY
Tue 10/17Liberty vs Middle Tennessee-16.0W42–3556.5W42–35ON
Tue 10/24Liberty at Western Kentucky-4.0W42–2961.5W42–29OY
Sat 11/4Liberty vs Louisiana Tech-16.5W56–3058.0W56–30OY
Sat 11/11Liberty vs Old Dominion-13.5W38–1058.5W38–10UY
Sat 11/18Liberty vs Massachusetts-26.5W49–2564.5W49–25ON
Sat 11/25Liberty at UTEP-18.0W42–2854.5W42–28ON
Fri 12/1Liberty vs New Mexico State-10.5W49–3554.0W49–35OY
Mon 1/1Liberty vs Oregon+18.5L6–4571.5L6–45UN
Buffalo 2023 Schedule
Buffalo's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Buffalo at Wisconsin+29.0L17–3852.5L17–38OY
Sat 9/9Buffalo vs Fordham-23.5L37–4055.5L37–40ON
Sat 9/16Buffalo vs Liberty+2.5L27–5554.0L27–55ON
Sat 9/23Buffalo at Louisiana+10.5L38–4557.5L38–45OY
Sat 9/30Buffalo at Akron+3.0W13–1053.0W13–10UY
Sat 10/7Buffalo vs Central Michigan+2.5W37–1351.5W37–13UY
Sat 10/14Buffalo vs Bowling Green-3.0L14–2444.5L14–24UN
Sat 10/21Buffalo at Kent State-6.5W24–644.0W24–6UY
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/31Buffalo at Toledo+14.0L13–3147.0L13–31UN
Tue 11/7Buffalo vs Ohio+9.5L10–2045.5L10–20UN
Wed 11/15Buffalo at Miami (OH)+7.5L10–2336.5L10–23UN
Tue 11/21Buffalo vs Eastern Michigan-6.5L11–2438.5L11–24UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Liberty PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Liberty
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Liberty
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Liberty
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Liberty #3
+0.572
Buffalo #130
+0.197
Liberty Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Liberty #2
+0.849
Buffalo #130
+0.269
Liberty Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Liberty #30
0.181
Buffalo #39
0.176
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Liberty Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Liberty #20
+8.086
Buffalo #95
+7.162
Liberty Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Liberty #3
+0.928
Buffalo #116
+0.797
Liberty Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Liberty #40
69.6
Buffalo #65
70.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Liberty Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Liberty Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Liberty
-2.9
Buffalo
-10.8
Offense Rating
Liberty
15.1
Buffalo
7.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Liberty
18.0
Buffalo
18.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Liberty Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Liberty #25
1.50
Buffalo #109
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Liberty #99
0.00
Buffalo #82
2.00
Liberty +1.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Liberty Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Liberty #1
70.9
Buffalo #1
28.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Liberty #11
17.0
Buffalo #121
56.5
Liberty +42.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Liberty
1 — 3 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Liberty
5.3 — 89.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Liberty won by 28
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Liberty with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Liberty
Jamey Chadwell #1
3–0 (100%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Newland Isaac Yr 1 #1
DC Jack Curtis Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Buffalo
Maurice Linguist #1
11–17 (39%) · Yr 3 at school
OC DJ Mangas Yr 1 #1
DC Robert Wright Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself