TCU at SMU - 2022 Matchup Preview
TCU logo TCU Horned Frogs at SMU MustangsSMU logo
Saturday, September 24th 2022 (12:00 PM EDT)
TCU -2.5 (72.0)
TCU 42 - SMU: 34

 
Horned Frogs (13 - 2) (10 - 4 - 1)
Coach Sonny Dykes (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 39 - 29 (34 - 25 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
TCU coming off BYE
SMU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -7.5  (SP+ TCU -19.5)
Projected Score: TCU: 32 - SMU: 33 (65)
TCU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
TCU Travel: 35 miles
Mustangs (7 - 6) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 37 - 34 (43 - 36 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
TCU's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/2 TCU at Colorado-13.559.0W 38 - 13UY
Sat 9/10 TCU vs Tarleton State-40.066.5W 59 - 17OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/24 TCU at SMU-2.572.0W 42 - 34OY
Sat 10/1 TCU vs Oklahoma+5.069.5W 55 - 24OY
Sat 10/8 TCU at Kansas-7.070.0W 38 - 31UN
Sat 10/15 TCU vs Oklahoma State-5.069.5W 43 - 40ON
Sat 10/22 TCU vs Kansas State-3.554.5W 38 - 28OY
Sat 10/29 TCU at West Virginia-7.070.0W 41 - 31OY
Sat 11/5 TCU vs Texas Tech-8.569.0W 34 - 24UY
Sat 11/12 TCU at Texas+7.565.0W 17 - 10UY
Sat 11/19 TCU at Baylor-2.058.0W 29 - 28UN
Sat 11/26 TCU vs Iowa State-9.546.0W 62 - 14OY
Sat 12/3 TCU vs Kansas State-1.060.5L 28 - 31UN
Sat 12/31 TCU vs Michigan+8.056.0W 51 - 45OY
Mon 1/9 TCU vs Georgia+13.562.0L 7 - 65ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for TCU's Schedule
SMU's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3 SMU at North Texas-9.567.5W 48 - 10UY
Sat 9/10 SMU vs Lamar-48.566.0W 45 - 16UN
Sat 9/17 SMU at Maryland+3.074.0L 27 - 34UN
Sat 9/24 SMU vs TCU+2.572.0L 34 - 42ON
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/5 SMU at UCF+3.065.0L 19 - 41UN
Fri 10/14 SMU vs Navy-12.559.0W 40 - 34ON
Sat 10/22 SMU vs Cincinnati+3.559.5L 27 - 29UY
Sat 10/29 SMU at Tulsa-1.063.5W 45 - 34OY
Sat 11/5 SMU vs Houston-3.566.0W 77 - 63OY
Sat 11/12 SMU at South Florida-17.572.5W 41 - 23UY
Thu 11/17 SMU at Tulane+3.565.0L 24 - 59ON
Sat 11/26 SMU vs Memphis-4.569.0W 34 - 31UN
Sat 12/17 SMU vs BYU-4.565.0L 23 - 24UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for SMU's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TCU.344%38.847%3.1519340%2624.28.1741%2945%38%4.3649.61.11.5
SMU.2645%37.245%3.1315645%3174.58.2643%33.846%40%4.3241.71.51.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TCU#18 (.3)47% (20)45% (53)2.95 (85)10649% (9)2934.46 (20)#82 (.19)42% (67)46% (102)36% (18)3.82 (72)49.71.61.1
SMU#38 (.24)44% (53)44% (62)2.97 (83)16944% (45)2634.41 (25)#5 (.03)37% (9)39% (35)35% (10)3.09 (13)77.71.71.6



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TCU Offense1538.834.243.5%4.281.1214551932625.152%48%47%40%13%.3
SMU Defense1333.835.843%4.321.7 - - - - - 54%45%46%40%13%.26
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TCU Defense152924.541.3%4.361.5 - - - - - 49%51%45%38%16%.17
SMU Offense1337.242.844.8%4.581.5254731563174.147%52%45%45%13%.26

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
TCU1530:252140%52%4.849.61.11.54.72630.6
SMU1327:4225.548%59%4.241.71.51.74.82.1029.7
Run Game Stats (2022)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TCU Offense1552%47%37.7193.35.137.223.1572%8%1.07
SMU Defense1354%46% - - - - .293.2374%8%1.16
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TCU Defense1549%45% - - - - .182.9972%8%0.98
SMU Offense1347%45%37.8156.24.126.173.1372%9%0.93

Pass Game Stats (2022)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TCU Offense1548%40%19.530.3261.78.713.5338.381.930%32%.455%2.4
SMU Defense1345%40% - - - - - - 10.311.732%30%.375%2.2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TCU Defense1551%38% - - - - - - 16.21.832%27%.37%2.3
SMU Offense1352%45%25.639.5316.7812.43611.371.731%35%.485%2.2

TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: NR
TCU's Offense Rating: NR
TCU's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating:  #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
TCU's 2022 Expected Record: -
TCU's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.3  #6
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 43.3  #6
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.2  #31

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
TCU:    SMU: 4.85

SP+ Ratings Matchup
TCU: 24.3   SMU: 4.7




SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 4.85 NR
SMU's Offense Rating: NR
SMU's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating:  #63
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
SMU's 2022 Expected Record: -
SMU's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.7  #56
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 42.0  #10
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.1  #116

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482


TCU Scoring
Offense: 38.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.2
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.5

TCU's 2022 Record
Record: 13 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 9 - 6
Record on Road: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
SMU 33
TCU 32

Total Points: 65

Based on Last 4 Games
SMU 32
TCU 28

Total Points: 61

Based on Entire Season
TCU 36
SMU 33

Total Points: 69
SMU Scoring
Offense: 37.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 42.8
Defense: 33.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 35.8

SMU's 2022 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20TCU35SMU24TCU -6.5TCU63.5Under
202409/21SMU66TCU42TCU -1SMU58.5Over
202309/23TCU34SMU17TCU -7TCU63.5Under
202209/24SMU34TCU42TCU -2.5TCU72.0Over
202109/25TCU34SMU42TCU -8SMU66.0Over
201909/21TCU38SMU41TCU -7.5SMU54.5Over
201809/07SMU12TCU42TCU -23.5TCU59.5Under
201709/16TCU56SMU36TCU -22SMU64.5Over
201609/23SMU3TCU33TCU -24TCU68.0Under
201509/19TCU56SMU37TCU -38SMU68.5Over
201409/27SMU0TCU56TCU -31TCU0
201309/28TCU48SMU17TCU -19.5TCU0
201209/29SMU16TCU24
201110/01TCU33SMU40
201009/24SMU24TCU41
200910/03TCU39SMU14
200809/20SMU7TCU48
200709/22TCU21SMU7
200509/10SMU21TCU10
200409/11TCU44SMU0
200311/29SMU13TCU20
200209/14TCU17SMU6
200109/08SMU10TCU38
200011/23SMU7TCU62
TeamWinsCoversO/U
SMU556 Overs
TCU1974 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams11 - 134 - 83 - 41 - 4
Road Teams13 - 118 - 44 - 14 - 3

(#) TCU at (#) SMU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTCUSMU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #6 #56
Perf GradeGrade #46 #67
OffenseOff #27 #28
DefenseDef #74 #126
Spec TeamsST #105 #51
TalentTal #32 #63
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
TCU on Offense
CategoryCat
TCU OffSMU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #27 #126
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #6 #116
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
TCU Run Game
CategoryCat
TCU OffSMU Def
Run GameRun #30 #124
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #43 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #127
TCU Pass Game
CategoryCat
TCU OffSMU Def
Pass GamePass #25 #100
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #27 #120
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
SMU on Offense
CategoryCatSMU OffTCU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #28 #74
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #10 #31
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
SMU Run Game
CategoryCat
SMU OffTCU Def
Run GameRun #122 #62
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #32 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #28
SMU Pass Game
CategoryCatSMU OffTCU Def
Pass GamePass #22 #53
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #9 #128
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
SMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'22 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

TCU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'22 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 89° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 4
TCU 2.5 (72.0)
TCU won at SMU this year (42-34)

Previous Matchups
SMU beat TCU last year (66-42)
TCU beat SMU in 2023 (34-17)
TCU beat SMU in 2022 (42-34)

  
TCU's OC Garrett Riley (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Joseph Gillespie (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

SMU's OC Casey Woods (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Scott Symons (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD