Oregon State at Oregon - 2021 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 27th 2021 (3:30 PM EST)
Oregon -7.5 (61.5)
Oregon 38 - Oregon State: 29 (Pac-12)

Beavers (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (11 - 23)
Avg Score : 18 - 29 (12 - 35 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ORE is playing their 7th straight game
ORST is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: -3 (SP+ ORE -1)
Projected Score: ORST: 16 - ORE: 36 (52)
ORE Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
ORST Travel: 36 miles

Ducks (10 - 4) (5 - 9 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (28 - 10)
Avg Score : 37 - 18 (43 - 17 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ORST Players
ORE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Oregon State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Oregon State at Purdue	+7.0	67.0	L 21 - 30	U	N
Sat 9/11	Oregon State vs Hawai'i	-11.0	65.0	W 45 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Oregon State vs Idaho	-28.0	63.5	W 42 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/25	Oregon State at USC	+11.0	62.5	W 45 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/2	Oregon State vs Washington	-2.5	57.5	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/9	Oregon State at Washington State	-4.0	59.0	L 24 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23	Oregon State vs Utah	+3.0	57.5	W 42 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/30	Oregon State at California	-2.5	56.5	L 25 - 39	O	N
Sat 11/6	Oregon State at Colorado	-11.5	55.5	L 34 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/13	Oregon State vs Stanford	-12.5	56.5	W 35 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/20	Oregon State vs Arizona State	+2.5	59.0	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/27	Oregon State at Oregon	+7.5	61.5	L 29 - 38	O	N
Sat 12/18	Oregon State vs Utah State	-7.0	68.0	L 13 - 24	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Oregon State's Schedule

Oregon's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Oregon vs Fresno State	-18.0	62.5	W 31 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/11	Oregon at Ohio State	+14.5	65.0	W 35 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Oregon vs Stony Brook	-42.0	54.5	W 48 - 7	O	N
Sat 9/25	Oregon vs Arizona	-29.5	58.5	W 41 - 19	O	N
Sat 10/2	Oregon at Stanford	-8.5	57.5	L 24 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/15	Oregon vs California	-13.5	53.5	W 24 - 17	U	N
Sat 10/23	Oregon at UCLA	+1.0	62.5	W 34 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/30	Oregon vs Colorado	-24.5	49.0	W 52 - 29	O	N
Sat 11/6	Oregon at Washington	-7.0	48.0	W 26 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/13	Oregon vs Washington State	-13.0	58.0	W 38 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/20	Oregon at Utah	+3.0	58.5	L 7 - 38	U	N
Sat 11/27	Oregon vs Oregon State	-7.5	61.5	W 38 - 29	O	Y
Fri 12/3	Oregon vs Utah	+3.0	57.5	L 10 - 38	U	N
Wed 12/29	Oregon vs Oklahoma	+7.0	64.0	L 32 - 47	O	N

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ORST	.23	47%	17.6	55%	3.33	198	38%	211	4.26	.28	49%	29.4	50%	47%	3.9	55.3	1.1	0.7
ORE	.28	50%	36.9	50%	3.26	167	49%	243	4.28	.18	45%	17.9	46%	44%	3.63	53	2.1	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ORST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ORE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ORST Offense	7	17.6	11.8	46.6%	4.26	1.1	22	409	198	211	5.4	51%	49%	55%	38%	14%	.23
ORE Defense	7	17.9	16.8	44.8%	3.63	1	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	46%	44%	14%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ORST Defense	7	29.4	35.2	48.8%	3.9	0.7	-	-	-	-	-	57%	43%	50%	47%	13%	.28
ORE Offense	7	36.9	43.1	49.9%	4.28	2.1	22	410	167	243	4.9	53%	47%	50%	49%	18%	.28

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Oregon State	7	27:57	22.1	40%	63%	6.1	55.3	1.1	0.7	3.9	1	1	32.4
Oregon	7	26:02	21.6	43%	60%	5.9	53	2.1	1	5	1.7	1	28.2

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ORST Offense	7	51%	55%	36.9	197.6	5.4	15	.29	3.33	80%	8%	0.97
ORE Defense	7	51%	46%	-	-	-	-	.13	2.82	66%	8%	0.92

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ORST Defense	7	57%	50%	-	-	-	-	.24	3.06	72%	7%	1.01
ORE Offense	7	53%	50%	33.9	166.9	4.9	13	.12	3.26	71%	12%	0.89

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ORST Offense	7	49%	38%	19.1	33.3	211.3	6.4	11	11	5	.17	1.4	29%	25%	.16	7%	1.7
ORE Defense	7	49%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	5	.23	1.4	28%	30%	.21	6%	1.8

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ORST Defense	7	43%	47%	-	-	-	-	-	-	5	.32	1.4	25%	37%	.48	6%	2
ORE Offense	7	47%	49%	17.1	27.1	243.4	9	14.2	15	6	.46	1.7	26%	33%	.46	6%	2.3

Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: NR
Oregon State's Offense Rating: NR
Oregon State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Oregon State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Oregon State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.9 #44
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.9 #16
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.5 #87

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: Oregon: 7.6

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: 8.9 Oregon: 10.2

Oregon's Power Ratings
Oregon's Power Rating: 7.6 NR
Oregon's Offense Rating: NR
Oregon's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Oregon's 2021 Expected Record: -
Oregon's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.2 #38
Oregon's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.0 #22
Oregon's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.0 #60

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 11.8
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.2

Oregon State's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Oregon 36
Oregon State 16

Projected Total Points: 52

Oregon Scoring
Offense: 36.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.1
Defense: 17.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.8

Oregon's 2021 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/20	Oregon	41	Oregon State	7	Oregon -33.5	Oregon	58.5	Under
2024	09/14	Oregon State	14	Oregon	49	Oregon -16	Oregon	50.0	Over
2023	11/24	Oregon	31	Oregon State	7	Oregon -14	Oregon	61.5	Under
2022	11/26	Oregon State	38	Oregon	34	Oregon State -1	Oregon State	57.0	Over
2021	11/27	Oregon	38	Oregon State	29	Oregon -7.5	Oregon	61.5	Over
2020	11/27	Oregon State	41	Oregon	38	Oregon -13	Oregon State	64.5	Over
2019	11/30	Oregon	24	Oregon State	10	Oregon -20.5	Oregon State	65.5	Under
2018	11/23	Oregon State	15	Oregon	55	Oregon -18	Oregon	71.0	Under
2017	11/25	Oregon	69	Oregon State	10	Oregon -25.5	Oregon	63.0	Over
2016	11/26	Oregon State	34	Oregon	24	Oregon -3	Oregon State	69.0	Under
2015	11/27	Oregon	52	Oregon State	42	Oregon -30	Oregon State	71.5	Over
2014	11/29	Oregon State	19	Oregon	47	Oregon -17.5	Oregon	0
2013	11/29	Oregon	36	Oregon State	35	Oregon -21	Oregon State	0
2012	11/24	Oregon State	24	Oregon	48
2011	11/26	Oregon	49	Oregon State	21
2010	12/04	Oregon State	20	Oregon	37
2009	12/03	Oregon	37	Oregon State	33
2008	11/29	Oregon State	38	Oregon	65
2007	12/01	Oregon	31	Oregon State	38
2006	11/24	Oregon State	30	Oregon	28
2005	11/19	Oregon	56	Oregon State	14
2004	11/20	Oregon State	50	Oregon	21
2003	11/22	Oregon	34	Oregon State	20
2001	12/01	Oregon	17	Oregon State	14
2000	11/17	Oregon State	23	Oregon	13

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Oregon	18	7	6 Overs
Oregon State	7	6	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	18 - 7	7 - 6	5 - 3	2 - 3
Road Teams	7 - 18	6 - 7	3 - 2	3 - 5

(#) ORST at (#) ORE

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ORST	ORE
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#44	#38
Perf GradeGrade	#37	#92
OffenseOff	#12	#76
DefenseDef	#93	#95
Spec TeamsST	#121	#135
TalentTal	#48	#8
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Oregon State Injury Report

Oregon Injury Report

Oregon State on Offense


CategoryCat	ORST Off	ORE Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#12	#95
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#16	#60
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Oregon State Run Game


CategoryCat	ORST Off	ORE Def
Run GameRun	#37	#75
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#6	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#132

Oregon State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ORST Off	ORE Def
Pass GamePass	#42	#114
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#107	#26
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Oregon on Offense


CategoryCat	ORE Off	ORST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#76	#93
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#22	#87
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Oregon Run Game


CategoryCat	ORE Off	ORST Def
Run GameRun	#39	#90
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#33	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#119

Oregon Pass Game


CategoryCat	ORE Off	ORST Def
Pass GamePass	#92	#71
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#71	#103
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ORE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'21 Profile: Remains Average P4

ORST 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'21 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Autzen Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 13
Oregon -7.5 (61.5)
Oregon won vs Oregon State this year (38-29)

Previous Matchups
Oregon beat Oregon State last year (41-7)
Oregon beat Oregon State in 2024 (49-14)
Oregon beat Oregon State in 2023 (31-7)

ORST's OC Brian Lindgren (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Oregon State's Full Roster

ORST's DC Tim Tibesar (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

ORE's OC Joe Moorhead (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Oregon's Full Roster

ORE's DC Tim DeRuyter (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD