NC State at East Carolina - 2016 Matchup Preview

NC State Wolfpack at East Carolina Pirates

Saturday, September 10th 2016 (12:00 PM EDT)
NC State -3.5 (59.0) (0) Open: 0.0
East Carolina 33 - NC State: 30

Wolfpack (7 - 6) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 27 - 23 (25 - 30 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ECU 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: -6.5 (SP+ NCST -18.5)
Projected Score: NCST: 24 - ECU: 25 (49)
NCST Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
NCST Travel: 77 miles

Pirates (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 27 - 36 (36 - 35 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NCST Players
ECU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

NC State's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/1	NC State vs William & Mary	-30.5
Sat 9/10	NC State at East Carolina	-3.5	59.0	L 30 - 33	O	N
Sat 9/17	NC State vs Old Dominion	-20.5	58.0	W 49 - 22	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/1	NC State vs Wake Forest	-9.0	48.0	W 33 - 16	O	Y
Sat 10/8	NC State vs Notre Dame	+2.5	56.5	W 10 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/15	NC State at Clemson	+17.0	60.0	L 17 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/22	NC State at Louisville	+20.0	65.0	L 13 - 54	O	N
Sat 10/29	NC State vs Boston College	-15.5	42.0	L 14 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/5	NC State vs Florida State	+6.5	58.0	L 20 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/12	NC State at Syracuse	-7.0	62.0	W 35 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/19	NC State vs Miami	+2.5	52.0	L 13 - 27	U	N
Fri 11/25	NC State at North Carolina	+10.0	63.0	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Mon 12/26	NC State vs Vanderbilt	-4.0	47.0	W 41 - 17	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for NC State's Schedule

East Carolina's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	East Carolina vs Western Carolina	-17.0
Sat 9/10	East Carolina vs NC State	+3.5	59.0	W 33 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/17	East Carolina at South Carolina	+6.0	51.5	L 15 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/24	East Carolina at Virginia Tech	+9.5	57.0	L 17 - 54	O	N
Sat 10/1	East Carolina vs UCF	-5.5	61.0	L 29 - 47	O	N
Sat 10/8	East Carolina at South Florida	+20.0	68.5	L 22 - 38	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/22	East Carolina at Cincinnati	+2.0	63.0	L 19 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/29	East Carolina vs UConn	-7.5	54.0	W 41 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/5	East Carolina at Tulsa	+10.0	76.5	L 24 - 45	U	N
Sat 11/12	East Carolina vs SMU	-5.0	63.0	L 31 - 55	O	N
Sat 11/19	East Carolina vs Navy	+8.0	64.0	L 31 - 66	O	N
Sat 11/26	East Carolina at Temple	+19.0	58.5	L 10 - 37	U	N

Important Stats (2016)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NCST	.17	43%	27	42%	2.78	156	43%	260	2.9	.08	38%	22.8	36%	38%	2.86	62.3	1.5	1.7
ECU	.16	43%	27	43%	3.06	132	42%	335	3.27	.27	46%	36.1	46%	44%	3.77	43.4	2	0.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NCST	#26 (.25)	45% (36)		44% (68)	3.24 (36)	130	47% (20)	215	3.97 (61)	#86 (.19)	41% (59)		39% (31)	43% (87)	3.78 (67)	45	1.7	1.4
ECU	#49 (.22)	43% (62)		44% (71)	3.07 (57)	147	43% (54)	253	3.79 (83)	#64 (.16)	40% (40)		37% (11)	43% (86)	3.85 (76)	61	2.2	1.6

Overall Stats 2016

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NCST Offense	13	27	24.6	43.3%	2.9	1.5	22	416	156	260	4	51%	48%	42%	43%	15%	.17
ECU Defense	12	36.1	34.7	46.3%	3.77	0.7	-	-	-	-	-	57%	41%	46%	44%	12%	.27

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NCST Defense	13	22.8	30.4	38.3%	2.86	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	42%	56%	36%	38%	19%	.08
ECU Offense	12	27	36.2	43.1%	3.27	2	24	467	132	335	3.9	37%	61%	43%	42%	17%	.16

Additional Stats 2016

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
NC State	13	31:50	21.8	44%	44%	6	62.3	1.5	1.7	6.8	2.8	4	31.3
East Carolina	12	30:08	23.8	39%	60%	5	43.4	2	0.7	4.5	0.7	0	26.7

Run Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NCST Offense	13	51%	42%	38.8	156.2	4	23	.04	2.78	61%	8%	0.88
ECU Defense	12	57%	46%	-	-	-	-	.23	3.42	74%	7%	1.08

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NCST Defense	13	42%	36%	-	-	-	-	.02	2.38	67%	12%	1.04
ECU Offense	12	37%	43%	33.7	132.4	3.9	13	.07	3.06	76%	12%	0.79

Pass Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NCST Offense	13	48%	43%	20.2	33.7	260.2	7.7	12.9	20	12	.32	1.7	33%	38%	.37	6%	1.8
ECU Defense	12	41%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	5	.35	1.7	29%	34%	.31	5%	1.8

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NCST Defense	13	56%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.15	1.5	38%	33%	.3	7%	1.7
ECU Offense	12	61%	42%	29.9	46.2	334.7	7.3	11.2	26	12	.23	1.6	35%	35%	.32	6%	1.8

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: NR
NC State's Offense Rating: NR
NC State's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #44
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
NC State's 2016 Expected Record: -
NC State's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.4 #41
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.5 #58
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.3 #19

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
NC State: East Carolina: -2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
NC State: 9.4 East Carolina: -9.0

East Carolina's Power Ratings
East Carolina's Power Rating: -2 NR
East Carolina's Offense Rating: NR
East Carolina's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
East Carolina's 2016 Expected Record: -
East Carolina's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.0 #99
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #80
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.1 #100

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

NC State Scoring
Offense: 27 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.6
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.4

NC State's 2016 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
East Carolina 25
NC State 24

Total Points: 49

Based on Last 4 Games
East Carolina 22
NC State 18

Total Points: 40

Based on Entire Season
NC State 31
East Carolina 29

Total Points: 60

East Carolina Scoring
Offense: 27 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.2
Defense: 36.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.7

East Carolina's 2016 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	08/28	NC State	24	East Carolina	17	NC State -12.5	East Carolina	58.5	Under
2024	12/28	NC State	21	East Carolina	26	NC State -7.5	East Carolina	61.5	Under
2022	09/03	East Carolina	20	NC State	21	NC State -12.5	East Carolina	52.0	Under
2019	08/31	NC State	34	East Carolina	6	NC State -17.5	NC State	52.0	Under
2018	12/01	NC State	58	East Carolina	3	NC State -24.5	NC State	59.5	Over
2016	09/10	East Carolina	33	NC State	30	NC State -3.5	East Carolina	59.0	Over
2013	11/23	NC State	28	East Carolina	42	East Carolina -6	East Carolina	0
2010	10/16	East Carolina	33	NC State	27
2008	09/20	NC State	30	East Carolina	24
2007	10/20	East Carolina	20	NC State	34
2006	11/25	NC State	16	East Carolina	21
2004	11/27	NC State	52	East Carolina	14

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
East Carolina	5	5	2 Overs
NC State	7	2	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 5	4 - 3	2 - 2	2 - 1
Road Teams	5 - 7	3 - 4	1 - 2	2 - 2

(#) NCST at (#) ECU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NCST	ECU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#41	#99
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#44	#82
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

NC State Injury Report

East Carolina Injury Report

NC State on Offense


CategoryCat	NCST Off	ECU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#58	#100
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

NC State Run Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	ECU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

NC State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	ECU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

East Carolina on Offense


CategoryCat	ECU Off	NCST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#80	#19
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

East Carolina Run Game


CategoryCat	ECU Off	NCST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

East Carolina Pass Game


CategoryCat	ECU Off	NCST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ECU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Average G5

NCST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 82° - Wind: 8 mph

Rematch from Week 2
NC State 3.5 (59.0)
East Carolina won vs NC State this year (33-30)

Previous Matchups
East Carolina beat NC State last year (26-21)
NC State beat East Carolina in 2022 (21-20)

NCST's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

ECU's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View East Carolina's Full Roster

ECU's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD