South Alabama at Mississippi State - 2016 Matchup Preview

South Alabama Jaguars at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Saturday, September 3rd 2016 (12:00 PM EDT)
Mississippi State -34 (52.0) (0) Open: 0.0
South Alabama 21 - Mississippi State: 20

Jaguars (6 - 7) (3 - 10 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 27 - 30 (25 - 32 on Road)
'16 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: -10 (SP+ MSST -15)
Projected Score: USA: 27 - MSST: 32 (59)
MSST Win prob: 100% | Cover: 48%
USA Travel: 196 miles

Bulldogs (6 - 7) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (34 - 28 @ Home)
'16 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USA Players
MSST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

South Alabama's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	South Alabama at Mississippi State	+34.0	52.0	W 21 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/10	South Alabama vs Georgia Southern	+11.5	57.5	L 9 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/17	South Alabama at Louisiana	+3.5	53.0	L 23 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/24	South Alabama vs Nicholls	-16.5
Sat 10/1	South Alabama vs San Diego State	+17.5	49.0	W 42 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/15	South Alabama at Arkansas State	+6.0	54.5	L 7 - 17	U	N
Thu 10/20	South Alabama vs Troy	+9.0	49.0	L 21 - 28	U	Y
Sat 10/29	South Alabama vs Georgia State	-3.5	47.5	W 13 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/5	South Alabama at UL Monroe	-13.5	49.5	L 35 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/19	South Alabama vs Presbyterian	-31.0
Sat 11/26	South Alabama at Idaho	+2.5	53.0	L 31 - 38	O	N
Sat 12/3	South Alabama vs New Mexico State	-12.0	57.5	W 35 - 28	O	N
Fri 12/30	South Alabama vs Air Force	+14.0	54.0	L 21 - 45	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for South Alabama's Schedule

Mississippi State's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Mississippi State vs South Alabama	-34.0	52.0	L 20 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/10	Mississippi State vs South Carolina	-9.5	50.5	W 27 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Mississippi State at LSU	+13.0	47.0	L 20 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/24	Mississippi State at Massachusetts	-25.0	49.5	W 47 - 35	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/8	Mississippi State vs Auburn	-1.5	55.0	L 14 - 38	U	N
Fri 10/14	Mississippi State at BYU	+4.0	55.5	L 21 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/22	Mississippi State at Kentucky	-1.5	54.5	L 38 - 40	O	N
Sat 10/29	Mississippi State vs Samford	-21.5
Sat 11/5	Mississippi State vs Texas A&M	+13.0	61.0	W 35 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/12	Mississippi State at Alabama	+28.5	52.5	L 3 - 51	O	N
Sat 11/19	Mississippi State vs Arkansas	-1.0	57.5	L 42 - 58	O	N
Sat 11/26	Mississippi State at Ole Miss	+8.0	67.5	W 55 - 20	O	Y
Mon 12/26	Mississippi State vs Miami (OH)	-11.5	58.0	W 17 - 16	U	N

Important Stats (2015)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USA	.07	40%	26.5	42%	2.78	161	36%	200	2.89	.19	44%	30.4	43%	42%	4.23	57.8	2.1	1.7
MSST	.24	48%	30.4	47%	3.08	144	47%	316	4.11	.12	44%	30.2	44%	42%	2.92	38.9	1.4	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MSST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2015

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USA Offense	12	26.5	25.2	40.2%	2.89	2.1	18	360	161	200	4	54%	45%	42%	36%	2%	.07
MSST Defense	13	30.2	27.9	44.3%	2.92	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	51%	47%	44%	42%	3%	.12

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USA Defense	12	30.4	32	43.5%	4.23	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	57%	42%	43%	42%	2%	.19
MSST Offense	13	30.4	33.9	47.8%	4.11	1.4	23	460	144	316	4.4	41%	58%	47%	47%	1%	.24

Additional Stats 2015

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
South Alabama	12	28:25	18.1	35%	44%	6.8	57.8	2.1	1.7	0	0	1	28.4
Mississippi State	13	26:16	23.2	43%	50%	4.1	38.9	1.4	1.1	0	0	3	29.3

Run Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USA Offense	12	54%	42%	40.1	160.7	4	18	.06	2.78	75%	0%	0.87
MSST Defense	13	51%	44%	-	-	-	-	.08	2.72	70%	0%	0.92

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USA Defense	12	57%	43%	-	-	-	-	.12	2.84	67%	0%	1.05
MSST Offense	13	41%	47%	32.8	144.1	4.4	21	.13	3.08	83%	0%	0.94

Pass Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USA Offense	12	45%	36%	15.3	29.3	199.5	6.8	13	15	16	.11	1.7	34%	32%	.19	2%	1.7
MSST Defense	13	47%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.18	1.5	33%	32%	.25	3%	1.7

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USA Defense	12	42%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.29	1.6	33%	32%	.38	2%	2.1
MSST Offense	13	58%	47%	25.5	38.5	316.4	8.2	12.4	33	5	.34	1.5	31%	36%	.37	1%	1.9

South Alabama's Power Ratings
South Alabama's Power Rating: NR
South Alabama's Offense Rating: NR
South Alabama's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #102
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
South Alabama's 2016 Expected Record: -
South Alabama's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.4 #100
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.2 #90
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #92

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: Mississippi State: 5.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: -9.4 Mississippi State: 5.4

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 5.2 NR
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #28
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Mississippi State's 2016 Expected Record: -
Mississippi State's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.4 #56
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.5 #37
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.8 #60

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

South Alabama Scoring
Offense: 26.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32

South Alabama's 2016 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Mississippi State 32
South Alabama 27

Projected Total Points: 59

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.9
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Mississippi State's 2016 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2016	09/03	Mississippi State	20	South Alabama	21	Mississippi State -34	South Alabama	52.0	Under
2014	09/13	South Alabama	3	Mississippi State	35	Mississippi State -13	Mississippi State	0
2012	09/22	Mississippi State	30	South Alabama	10

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Mississippi State	2	1	0 Overs
South Alabama	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 1	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0

(#) USA at (#) MSST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USA	MSST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#100	#56
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#102	#28
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

South Alabama Injury Report

Mississippi State Injury Report

South Alabama on Offense


CategoryCat	USA Off	MSST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#90	#60
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

South Alabama Run Game


CategoryCat	USA Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

South Alabama Pass Game


CategoryCat	USA Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Mississippi State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSST Off	USA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#37	#92
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Mississippi State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	USA Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Mississippi State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	USA Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

USA 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Mississippi State -34.0 (52.0)
South Alabama won at Mississippi State this year (21-20)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

USA's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View South Alabama's Full Roster

USA's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

MSST's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD