Miami (OH) at Buffalo Week 13 College Football Matchup Miami (OH) at Buffalo Matchup - Week 13
Wed, Nov 19 2025 · Week 13 · 🏟 UB Stadium Amherst, NY · Turf · 29,013 cap
Miami (OH)✈ 391 miSame TZ
37 20
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Miami (OH)
20
BUFF +2.5
Buffalo
22
P&R Line Buffalo -1.5
P&R Total O/U 42
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Miami (OH) -2.5 · O/U 38.5
Matchup Prediction
Miami (OH) has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Miami (OH) entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Miami (OH) wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Miami (OH) wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Miami (OH) -2.5
O/U 38.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Miami (OH) · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Miami (OH) 2025 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Miami (OH) at Wisconsin+17.5L0–1740.5L0–17UY
Sat 9/6Miami (OH) at Rutgers+15.5L17–4545.5L17–45ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20Miami (OH) vs UNLV+2.5L38–4149.5L38–41ON
Sat 9/27Miami (OH) vs Lindenwood-22.5W38–049.5W38–0UY
Sat 10/4Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois-4.5W25–1438.5W25–14OY
Sat 10/11Miami (OH) at Akron-11.5W20–747.5W20–7UY
Sat 10/18Miami (OH) vs Eastern Michigan-12.5W44–3047.5W44–30OY
Sat 10/25Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan-2.5W26–1740.5W26–17OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/4Miami (OH) at Ohio+2.5L20–2450.5L20–24UN
Wed 11/12Miami (OH) vs Toledo+6.5L3–2444.5L3–24UN
Wed 11/19Miami (OH) at Buffalo-2.5W37–2038.5W37–20OY
Sat 11/29Miami (OH) vs Ball State-16.5W45–2440.5W45–24OY
Sat 12/6Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan+2.5L13–2344.5L13–23UN
Sat 12/27Miami (OH) vs Fresno State+5.0L3–1841.0L3–18UN
Buffalo 2025 Schedule
Buffalo's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Buffalo at Minnesota+16.5L10–2345.5L10–23UY
Sat 9/6Buffalo vs St. Francis (PA)-37.0W45–648.0W45–6OY
Sat 9/13Buffalo at Kent State-23.5W31–2848.5W31–28ON
Sat 9/20Buffalo vs Troy-5.5L17–2143.5L17–21UN
Sat 9/27Buffalo vs UConn+3.0L17–2051.5L17–20UY
Sat 10/4Buffalo vs Eastern Michigan-9.5W31–3053.5W31–30ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/18Buffalo at Massachusetts-16.5W28–2147.5W28–21ON
Sat 10/25Buffalo vs Akron-10.0L16–2448.5L16–24UN
Sat 11/1Buffalo at Bowling Green+2.5W28–344.5W28–3UY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/12Buffalo at Central Michigan+2.5L19–3844.5L19–38ON
Wed 11/19Buffalo vs Miami (OH)+2.5L20–3738.5L20–37ON
Fri 11/28Buffalo vs Ohio+7.0L26–3144.5L26–31OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Miami (OH) PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Miami (OH) #107
+0.221
Buffalo #116
+0.157
Miami (OH) Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #106
+0.413
Buffalo #103
+0.373
Miami (OH) Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #25
0.178
Buffalo #75
0.153
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Miami (OH) Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #107
+6.411
Buffalo #91
+6.889
Buffalo Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Miami (OH) #106
+0.782
Buffalo #109
+0.780
Miami (OH) Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Miami (OH) #19
68.6
Buffalo #54
70.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Miami (OH) Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Miami (OH) Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Miami (OH)
0.7
Buffalo
-10.8
Offense Rating
Miami (OH)
14.7
Buffalo
7.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Miami (OH)
14.0
Buffalo
18.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Miami (OH) Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Miami (OH) #58
1.22
Buffalo #98
0.44
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami (OH) #78
0.67
Buffalo #23
0.44
Miami (OH) +0.78
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Miami (OH) Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Miami (OH) #1
44.5
Buffalo #1
39.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami (OH) #73
37.6
Buffalo #91
40.9
Miami (OH) +4.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
2 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Miami (OH)
15.8 — 59.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Miami (OH) won by 17
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Miami (OH), but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
64–67 (49%) · Yr 12 at school
OC Patrick Welsh Yr 3 #1
DC Bill Brechin Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Buffalo
Pete Lembo #1
8–4 (67%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Dave Patenaude Yr 2 #1
DC Joe Bowen Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself