Sat, Sep 13 2025
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Dix Stadium
Kent, OH
·
Turf
·
25,000 cap
Buffalo✈ 182 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Kent State,
while Game Control favors Buffalo.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
71.6%
Kent State wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Buffalo wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Buffalo -23.5
O/U 48.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Buffalo
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Buffalo 2025 Schedule
Buffalo's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | Buffalo at Minnesota | +16.5L10–23 | 45.5 | L10–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Buffalo vs St. Francis (PA) | -37.0W45–6 | 48.0 | W45–6 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Buffalo at Kent State | -23.5W31–28 | 48.5 | W31–28 | O | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Buffalo vs Troy | -5.5L17–21 | 43.5 | L17–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Buffalo vs UConn | +3.0L17–20 | 51.5 | L17–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Buffalo vs Eastern Michigan | -9.5W31–30 | 53.5 | W31–30 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/18 | Buffalo at Massachusetts | -16.5W28–21 | 47.5 | W28–21 | O | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Buffalo vs Akron | -10.0L16–24 | 48.5 | L16–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Buffalo at Bowling Green | +2.5W28–3 | 44.5 | W28–3 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/12 | Buffalo at Central Michigan | +2.5L19–38 | 44.5 | L19–38 | O | N |
| Wed 11/19 | Buffalo vs Miami (OH) | +2.5L20–37 | 38.5 | L20–37 | O | N |
| Fri 11/28 | Buffalo vs Ohio | +7.0L26–31 | 44.5 | L26–31 | O | Y |
Kent State 2025 Schedule
Kent State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Kent State vs Merrimack | -5.5W21–17 | 50.5 | W21–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Kent State at Texas Tech | +48.5L14–62 | 60.0 | L14–62 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Kent State vs Buffalo | +23.5L28–31 | 48.5 | L28–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Kent State at Florida State | +44.5L10–66 | 56.5 | L10–66 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Kent State at Oklahoma | +46.5L0–44 | 53.5 | L0–44 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Kent State vs Massachusetts | -1.5W42–6 | 49.5 | W42–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Kent State at Toledo | +25.5L10–45 | 48.5 | L10–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Kent State vs Bowling Green | +7.5W24–21 | 47.5 | W24–21 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/5 | Kent State at Ball State | +3.0L13–17 | 48.5 | L13–17 | U | N |
| Tue 11/11 | Kent State at Akron | +7.5W42–35 | 49.5 | W42–35 | O | Y |
| Wed 11/19 | Kent State vs Central Michigan | +7.5L16–28 | 50.5 | L16–28 | U | N |
| Fri 11/28 | Kent State at Northern Illinois | +5.0W35–31 | 45.0 | W35–31 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Buffalo
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Buffalo
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Buffalo
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Kent State Edge
Kent State +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Buffalo Edge
Buffalo +22.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Buffalo
1 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Kent State
53.2 — 28.3 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Buffalo won by 3
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Buffalo
Pete Lembo #1
8–4 (67%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Dave Patenaude
Yr 2
#1
DC
Joe Bowen
Yr 2
#1
Kent State
Kenni Burns #1
1–23 (4%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Mark Carney
Yr 2
#1
DC
Kody Morgan
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓