Sat, Oct 4 2025
·
Week 6
·
🏟 Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium
DeKalb, IL
·
Turf
·
23,595 cap
Miami (OH)✈ 269 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Miami (OH)
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Miami (OH) entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Miami (OH) wins
Solid
Game Control
64.9%
Miami (OH) wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Miami (OH) -4.5
O/U 38.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Miami (OH)
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Miami (OH) 2025 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | Miami (OH) at Wisconsin | +17.5L0–17 | 40.5 | L0–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Miami (OH) at Rutgers | +15.5L17–45 | 45.5 | L17–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | Miami (OH) vs UNLV | +2.5L38–41 | 49.5 | L38–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Miami (OH) vs Lindenwood | -22.5W38–0 | 49.5 | W38–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois | -4.5W25–14 | 38.5 | W25–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Miami (OH) at Akron | -11.5W20–7 | 47.5 | W20–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Miami (OH) vs Eastern Michigan | -12.5W44–30 | 47.5 | W44–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan | -2.5W26–17 | 40.5 | W26–17 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/4 | Miami (OH) at Ohio | +2.5L20–24 | 50.5 | L20–24 | U | N |
| Wed 11/12 | Miami (OH) vs Toledo | +6.5L3–24 | 44.5 | L3–24 | U | N |
| Wed 11/19 | Miami (OH) at Buffalo | -2.5W37–20 | 38.5 | W37–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Miami (OH) vs Ball State | -16.5W45–24 | 40.5 | W45–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/6 | Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan | +2.5L13–23 | 44.5 | L13–23 | U | N |
| Sat 12/27 | Miami (OH) vs Fresno State | +5.0L3–18 | 41.0 | L3–18 | U | N |
Northern Illinois 2025 Schedule
Northern Illinois's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Northern Illinois vs Holy Cross | -13.5W19–17 | 48.5 | W19–17 | U | N |
| Fri 9/5 | Northern Illinois at Maryland | +17.0L9–20 | 44.5 | L9–20 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | Northern Illinois at Mississippi State | +23.5L10–38 | 48.5 | L10–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Northern Illinois vs San Diego State | +1.5L3–6 | 41.5 | L3–6 | U | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Northern Illinois vs Miami (OH) | +4.5L14–25 | 38.5 | L14–25 | O | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan | -1.5L10–16 | 48.5 | L10–16 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Northern Illinois at Ohio | +10.5L21–48 | 41.5 | L21–48 | O | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Northern Illinois vs Ball State | -6.5W21–7 | 41.5 | W21–7 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/5 | Northern Illinois at Toledo | +14.5L3–42 | 42.5 | L3–42 | O | N |
| Wed 11/12 | Northern Illinois at Massachusetts | -8.5W45–3 | 43.5 | W45–3 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/18 | Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan | +7.0L19–35 | 39.5 | L19–35 | O | N |
| Fri 11/28 | Northern Illinois vs Kent State | -5.0L31–35 | 45.0 | L31–35 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Miami (OH) Edge
Miami (OH) +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Miami (OH) Edge
Miami (OH) +13.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Northern Illinois
44.0 — 43.8 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Miami (OH) won by 11
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Miami (OH) with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
64–67 (49%)
· Yr 12 at school
OC
Patrick Welsh
Yr 3
#1
DC
Bill Brechin
Yr 3
#1
Northern Illinois
Thomas Hammock #1
31–38 (45%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Wesley Beschorner
Yr 2
#1
DC
Nick Benedetto
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓