Matchup Prediction
Buffalo
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Buffalo entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Buffalo wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Buffalo wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Buffalo -10
O/U 48.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Akron 2025 Schedule
Akron's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | Akron vs Wyoming | +8.5L0–10 | 49.5 | L0–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Akron at Nebraska | +34.0L0–68 | 47.5 | L0–68 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Akron at UAB | +12.5L28–31 | 58.5 | L28–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Akron vs Duquesne | -10.5W51–7 | 51.0 | W51–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Akron at Toledo | +21.5L3–45 | 50.5 | L3–45 | U | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Akron vs Central Michigan | +7.0W28–22 | 47.5 | W28–22 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Akron vs Miami (OH) | +11.5L7–20 | 47.5 | L7–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Akron at Ball State | -2.5L28–42 | 44.5 | L28–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Akron at Buffalo | +10.0W24–16 | 48.5 | W24–16 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/4 | Akron vs Massachusetts | -12.5W44–10 | 51.5 | W44–10 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/11 | Akron vs Kent State | -7.5L35–42 | 49.5 | L35–42 | O | N |
| Tue 11/18 | Akron at Bowling Green | +2.5W19–16 | 47.5 | W19–16 | U | Y |
Buffalo 2025 Schedule
Buffalo's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | Buffalo at Minnesota | +16.5L10–23 | 45.5 | L10–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Buffalo vs St. Francis (PA) | -37.0W45–6 | 48.0 | W45–6 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Buffalo at Kent State | -23.5W31–28 | 48.5 | W31–28 | O | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Buffalo vs Troy | -5.5L17–21 | 43.5 | L17–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Buffalo vs UConn | +3.0L17–20 | 51.5 | L17–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Buffalo vs Eastern Michigan | -9.5W31–30 | 53.5 | W31–30 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/18 | Buffalo at Massachusetts | -16.5W28–21 | 47.5 | W28–21 | O | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Buffalo vs Akron | -10.0L16–24 | 48.5 | L16–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Buffalo at Bowling Green | +2.5W28–3 | 44.5 | W28–3 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/12 | Buffalo at Central Michigan | +2.5L19–38 | 44.5 | L19–38 | O | N |
| Wed 11/19 | Buffalo vs Miami (OH) | +2.5L20–37 | 38.5 | L20–37 | O | N |
| Fri 11/28 | Buffalo vs Ohio | +7.0L26–31 | 44.5 | L26–31 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Buffalo Edge
Buffalo +0.21
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Buffalo Edge
Buffalo +10.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Buffalo. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Akron
Joe Moorhead #1
8–28 (22%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Taylor Housewright
Yr 2
#1
DC
Tim Tibesar
Yr 3
#1
Buffalo
Pete Lembo #1
8–4 (67%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Dave Patenaude
Yr 2
#1
DC
Joe Bowen
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓