Buffalo at Bowling Green Week 10 College Football Matchup Buffalo at Bowling Green Matchup - Week 10
Sat, Nov 1 2025 · Week 10 · 🏟 Doyt Perry Stadium Bowling Green, OH · Turf · 24,000 cap
Buffalo✈ 272 miSame TZ
Away
28 3
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Buffalo
26
BUFF +2.5
Bowling Green
19
P&R Line Buffalo -7
P&R Total O/U 44
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Bowling Green -2.5 · O/U 44.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Bowling Green, while Game Control favors Buffalo. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Bowling Green wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Buffalo wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Bowling Green -2.5
O/U 44.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Buffalo · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Buffalo 2025 Schedule
Buffalo's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Buffalo at Minnesota+16.5L10–2345.5L10–23UY
Sat 9/6Buffalo vs St. Francis (PA)-37.0W45–648.0W45–6OY
Sat 9/13Buffalo at Kent State-23.5W31–2848.5W31–28ON
Sat 9/20Buffalo vs Troy-5.5L17–2143.5L17–21UN
Sat 9/27Buffalo vs UConn+3.0L17–2051.5L17–20UY
Sat 10/4Buffalo vs Eastern Michigan-9.5W31–3053.5W31–30ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/18Buffalo at Massachusetts-16.5W28–2147.5W28–21ON
Sat 10/25Buffalo vs Akron-10.0L16–2448.5L16–24UN
Sat 11/1Buffalo at Bowling Green+2.5W28–344.5W28–3UY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/12Buffalo at Central Michigan+2.5L19–3844.5L19–38ON
Wed 11/19Buffalo vs Miami (OH)+2.5L20–3738.5L20–37ON
Fri 11/28Buffalo vs Ohio+7.0L26–3144.5L26–31OY
Bowling Green 2025 Schedule
Bowling Green's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Bowling Green vs Lafayette-21.0W26–753.0W26–7UN
Sat 9/6Bowling Green at Cincinnati+21.5L20–3446.5L20–34OY
Sat 9/13Bowling Green vs Liberty+6.0W23–1351.5W23–13UY
Sat 9/20Bowling Green at Louisville+26.5L17–4050.5L17–40OY
Sat 9/27Bowling Green at Ohio+7.5L20–3549.5L20–35ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/11Bowling Green vs Toledo+10.5W28–2345.5W28–23OY
Sat 10/18Bowling Green vs Central Michigan-3.0L6–2743.5L6–27UN
Sat 10/25Bowling Green at Kent State-7.5L21–2447.5L21–24UN
Sat 11/1Bowling Green vs Buffalo-2.5L3–2844.5L3–28UN
Sat 11/8Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan+3.0L21–2749.5L21–27UN
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/18Bowling Green vs Akron-2.5L16–1947.5L16–19UN
Tue 11/25Bowling Green at Massachusetts-14.0W45–1444.5W45–14OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Buffalo PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Buffalo
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Buffalo #116
+0.228
Bowling Green #128
+0.142
Buffalo Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Buffalo #103
+0.461
Bowling Green #129
+0.302
Buffalo Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Buffalo #75
0.153
Bowling Green #12
0.190
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Bowling Green Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Buffalo #91
+6.943
Bowling Green #118
+6.260
Buffalo Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Buffalo #109
+0.794
Bowling Green #128
+0.747
Buffalo Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Buffalo #54
70.5
Bowling Green #27
69.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Bowling Green Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Bowling Green Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Buffalo
-10.8
Bowling Green
-9.7
Offense Rating
Buffalo
7.6
Bowling Green
10.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Buffalo
18.3
Bowling Green
20.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Bowling Green Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Buffalo #98
0.43
Bowling Green #114
0.57
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Buffalo #23
0.57
Bowling Green #72
1.29
Bowling Green +0.14
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Buffalo Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Buffalo #1
37.0
Bowling Green #1
36.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Buffalo #91
41.1
Bowling Green #111
54.2
Buffalo +0.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Buffalo
Pete Lembo #1
8–4 (67%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Dave Patenaude Yr 2 #1
DC Joe Bowen Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Bowling Green
Eddie George #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Greg Nosal Yr 3 #1
DC Steve Morrison Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself