Miami (OH) at Ohio Week 11 College Football Matchup Miami (OH) at Ohio Matchup - Week 11
Tue, Nov 4 2025 · Week 11 · 🏟 Peden Stadium Athens, OH · Turf · 24,000 cap
Miami (OH)✈ 141 miSame TZ
20 24
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Miami (OH)
22
OHIO -2.5
Ohio
27
P&R Line Ohio -5
P&R Total O/U 49.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Ohio -2.5 · O/U 50.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Miami (OH), while Game Control favors Ohio. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Miami (OH) wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Ohio wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Ohio -2.5
O/U 50.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Ohio · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Ohio Coming off BYE 🛋 Miami (OH) Coming off BYE
Miami (OH) 2025 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Miami (OH) at Wisconsin+17.5L0–1740.5L0–17UY
Sat 9/6Miami (OH) at Rutgers+15.5L17–4545.5L17–45ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20Miami (OH) vs UNLV+2.5L38–4149.5L38–41ON
Sat 9/27Miami (OH) vs Lindenwood-22.5W38–049.5W38–0UY
Sat 10/4Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois-4.5W25–1438.5W25–14OY
Sat 10/11Miami (OH) at Akron-11.5W20–747.5W20–7UY
Sat 10/18Miami (OH) vs Eastern Michigan-12.5W44–3047.5W44–30OY
Sat 10/25Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan-2.5W26–1740.5W26–17OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/4Miami (OH) at Ohio+2.5L20–2450.5L20–24UN
Wed 11/12Miami (OH) vs Toledo+6.5L3–2444.5L3–24UN
Wed 11/19Miami (OH) at Buffalo-2.5W37–2038.5W37–20OY
Sat 11/29Miami (OH) vs Ball State-16.5W45–2440.5W45–24OY
Sat 12/6Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan+2.5L13–2344.5L13–23UN
Sat 12/27Miami (OH) vs Fresno State+5.0L3–1841.0L3–18UN
Ohio 2025 Schedule
Ohio's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Ohio at Rutgers+11.5L31–3446.5L31–34OY
Sat 9/6Ohio vs West Virginia+3.5W17–1058.5W17–10UY
Sat 9/13Ohio at Ohio State+28.0L9–3749.0L9–37UY
Sat 9/20Ohio vs Gardner-Webb-30.5W52–3555.0W52–35ON
Sat 9/27Ohio vs Bowling Green-7.5W35–2049.5W35–20OY
Sat 10/4Ohio at Ball State-14.0L14–2052.5L14–20UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/18Ohio vs Northern Illinois-10.5W48–2141.5W48–21OY
Sat 10/25Ohio at Eastern Michigan-11.5W28–2160.5W28–21UN
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/4Ohio vs Miami (OH)-2.5W24–2050.5W24–20UY
Tue 11/11Ohio at Western Michigan+1.5L13–1746.5L13–17UN
Tue 11/18Ohio vs Massachusetts-34.5W42–1453.5W42–14ON
Fri 11/28Ohio at Buffalo-7.0W31–2644.5W31–26ON
Tue 12/23Ohio vs UNLV+6.5W17–1064.5W17–10UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Ohio PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ohio
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Miami (OH) #107
+0.227
Ohio #42
+0.290
Ohio Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #106
+0.386
Ohio #60
+0.460
Ohio Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #25
0.178
Ohio #86
0.149
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Miami (OH) Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #107
+6.175
Ohio #84
+6.934
Ohio Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Miami (OH) #106
+0.804
Ohio #41
+0.840
Ohio Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Miami (OH) #19
68.6
Ohio #49
70.1
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Miami (OH) Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Miami (OH) Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Miami (OH)
0.7
Ohio
-10.3
Offense Rating
Miami (OH)
14.7
Ohio
7.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Miami (OH)
14.0
Ohio
17.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Miami (OH) Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Miami (OH) #58
1.43
Ohio #67
0.86
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami (OH) #78
0.57
Ohio #102
0.86
Miami (OH) +0.57
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Ohio Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Miami (OH) #1
51.1
Ohio #1
52.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami (OH) #73
34.2
Ohio #29
34.1
Ohio +1.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
64–67 (49%) · Yr 12 at school
OC Patrick Welsh Yr 3 #1
DC Bill Brechin Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Ohio
Brian Smith #1
1–0 (100%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Scott Isphording Yr 2 #1
DC John Hauser Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself