Sat, Sep 6 2025
·
Week 2
·
🏟 UB Stadium
Amherst, NY
·
Turf
·
29,013 cap
St. Francis (PA)✈ 172 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2025 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2024 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Buffalo wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Buffalo -37.0
O/U 48.0
Bovada
St. Francis (PA) 2025 Schedule
St. Francis (PA)'s 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | St. Francis (PA) at UL Monroe | +31.0L0–29 | 47.0 | L0–29 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | St. Francis (PA) at Buffalo | +37.0L6–45 | 48.0 | L6–45 | O | N |
Buffalo 2025 Schedule
Buffalo's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | Buffalo at Minnesota | +16.5L10–23 | 45.5 | L10–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Buffalo vs St. Francis (PA) | -37.0W45–6 | 48.0 | W45–6 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Buffalo at Kent State | -23.5W31–28 | 48.5 | W31–28 | O | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Buffalo vs Troy | -5.5L17–21 | 43.5 | L17–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Buffalo vs UConn | +3.0L17–20 | 51.5 | L17–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Buffalo vs Eastern Michigan | -9.5W31–30 | 53.5 | W31–30 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/18 | Buffalo at Massachusetts | -16.5W28–21 | 47.5 | W28–21 | O | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Buffalo vs Akron | -10.0L16–24 | 48.5 | L16–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Buffalo at Bowling Green | +2.5W28–3 | 44.5 | W28–3 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/12 | Buffalo at Central Michigan | +2.5L19–38 | 44.5 | L19–38 | O | N |
| Wed 11/19 | Buffalo vs Miami (OH) | +2.5L20–37 | 38.5 | L20–37 | O | N |
| Fri 11/28 | Buffalo vs Ohio | +7.0L26–31 | 44.5 | L26–31 | O | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
St. Francis (PA) Edge
St. Francis (PA) +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Buffalo Edge
Buffalo +8.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓