Miami (OH) at Wisconsin Week 1 College Football Matchup Miami (OH) at Wisconsin Matchup - Week 1
Thu, Aug 28 2025 · Week 1 · 🏟 Camp Randall Stadium Madison, WI · Turf · 80,321 cap
Miami (OH)✈ 345 mi-1 hr TZ
0 17
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Miami (OH)
16
M-OH +17.5
Wisconsin
25
P&R Line Wisconsin -9
P&R Total O/U 40
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Wisconsin -17.5 · O/U 40.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Wisconsin -17.5
O/U 40.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Miami (OH) · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Miami (OH) 2025 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Miami (OH) at Wisconsin+17.5L0–1740.5L0–17UY
Sat 9/6Miami (OH) at Rutgers+15.5L17–4545.5L17–45ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20Miami (OH) vs UNLV+2.5L38–4149.5L38–41ON
Sat 9/27Miami (OH) vs Lindenwood-22.5W38–049.5W38–0UY
Sat 10/4Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois-4.5W25–1438.5W25–14OY
Sat 10/11Miami (OH) at Akron-11.5W20–747.5W20–7UY
Sat 10/18Miami (OH) vs Eastern Michigan-12.5W44–3047.5W44–30OY
Sat 10/25Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan-2.5W26–1740.5W26–17OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/4Miami (OH) at Ohio+2.5L20–2450.5L20–24UN
Wed 11/12Miami (OH) vs Toledo+6.5L3–2444.5L3–24UN
Wed 11/19Miami (OH) at Buffalo-2.5W37–2038.5W37–20OY
Sat 11/29Miami (OH) vs Ball State-16.5W45–2440.5W45–24OY
Sat 12/6Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan+2.5L13–2344.5L13–23UN
Sat 12/27Miami (OH) vs Fresno State+5.0L3–1841.0L3–18UN
Wisconsin 2025 Schedule
Wisconsin's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Wisconsin vs Miami (OH)-17.5W17–040.5W17–0UN
Sat 9/6Wisconsin vs Middle Tennessee-28.5W42–1045.5W42–10OY
Sat 9/13Wisconsin at Alabama+17.5L14–3845.5L14–38ON
Sat 9/20Wisconsin vs Maryland-10.5L10–2744.5L10–27UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Wisconsin at Michigan+17.5L10–2442.5L10–24UY
Sat 10/11Wisconsin vs Iowa+5.5L0–3737.5L0–37UN
Sat 10/18Wisconsin vs Ohio State+24.5L0–3441.5L0–34UN
Sat 10/25Wisconsin at Oregon+31.5L7–2144.5L7–21UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/8Wisconsin vs Washington+10.5W13–1044.5W13–10UY
Sat 11/15Wisconsin at Indiana+28.5L7–3143.5L7–31UY
Sat 11/22Wisconsin vs Illinois+8.5W27–1042.5W27–10UY
Sat 11/29Wisconsin at Minnesota-2.5L7–1738.5L7–17UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Miami (OH) PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Miami (OH) #107
+0.292
Wisconsin #132
+0.095
Miami (OH) Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #106
+0.512
Wisconsin #131
+0.219
Miami (OH) Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #25
0.178
Wisconsin #120
0.129
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Miami (OH) Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #107
+6.476
Wisconsin #135
+5.672
Miami (OH) Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Miami (OH) #106
+0.840
Wisconsin #130
+0.745
Miami (OH) Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Miami (OH) #19
68.6
Wisconsin #89
71.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Miami (OH) Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Miami (OH) Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Miami (OH)
0.7
Wisconsin
0.3
Offense Rating
Miami (OH)
14.7
Wisconsin
15.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Miami (OH)
14.0
Wisconsin
14.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Miami (OH) Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Miami (OH) #58
0.00
Wisconsin #130
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami (OH) #78
0.00
Wisconsin #91
0.00
Miami (OH) +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Miami (OH) Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Miami (OH) #1
0.0
Wisconsin #1
0.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami (OH) #73
0.0
Wisconsin #119
0.0
Miami (OH) +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Wisconsin, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
64–67 (49%) · Yr 12 at school
OC Patrick Welsh Yr 3 #1
DC Bill Brechin Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Wisconsin
Luke Fickell #1
13–13 (50%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Jeff Grimes Yr 1 #1
DC Mike Tressel Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself