Ball State at Miami (OH) Week 14 College Football Matchup Ball State at Miami (OH) Matchup - Week 14
Sat, Nov 29 2025 · Week 14 · 🏟 Yager Stadium Oxford, OH · Turf · 24,286 cap
24 45
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Ball State
14
Miami (OH)
31
P&R Line Miami (OH) -17
P&R Total O/U 44
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Miami (OH) -16.5 · O/U 40.5
Matchup Prediction
Miami (OH) has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Miami (OH) entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Miami (OH) wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Miami (OH) wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Miami (OH) -16.5
O/U 40.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Miami (OH) · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Ball State 2nd straight Road Game
Ball State 2025 Schedule
Ball State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Ball State at Purdue+16.5L0–3150.5L0–31UN
Sat 9/6Ball State at Auburn+43.0L3–4252.5L3–42UY
Sat 9/13Ball State vs New Hampshire-3.0W34–2946.5W34–29OY
Sat 9/20Ball State at UConn+21.0L25–3153.5L25–31OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Ball State vs Ohio+14.0W20–1452.5W20–14UY
Sat 10/11Ball State at Western Michigan+9.5L0–4243.5L0–42UN
Sat 10/18Ball State vs Akron+2.5W42–2844.5W42–28OY
Sat 10/25Ball State at Northern Illinois+6.5L7–2141.5L7–21UN
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/5Ball State vs Kent State-3.0W17–1348.5W17–13UY
Sat 11/15Ball State vs Eastern Michigan+2.5L9–2448.5L9–24UN
Sat 11/22Ball State at Toledo+29.5L9–3845.5L9–38OY
Sat 11/29Ball State at Miami (OH)+16.5L24–4540.5L24–45ON
Miami (OH) 2025 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Miami (OH) at Wisconsin+17.5L0–1740.5L0–17UY
Sat 9/6Miami (OH) at Rutgers+15.5L17–4545.5L17–45ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20Miami (OH) vs UNLV+2.5L38–4149.5L38–41ON
Sat 9/27Miami (OH) vs Lindenwood-22.5W38–049.5W38–0UY
Sat 10/4Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois-4.5W25–1438.5W25–14OY
Sat 10/11Miami (OH) at Akron-11.5W20–747.5W20–7UY
Sat 10/18Miami (OH) vs Eastern Michigan-12.5W44–3047.5W44–30OY
Sat 10/25Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan-2.5W26–1740.5W26–17OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/4Miami (OH) at Ohio+2.5L20–2450.5L20–24UN
Wed 11/12Miami (OH) vs Toledo+6.5L3–2444.5L3–24UN
Wed 11/19Miami (OH) at Buffalo-2.5W37–2038.5W37–20OY
Sat 11/29Miami (OH) vs Ball State-16.5W45–2440.5W45–24OY
Sat 12/6Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan+2.5L13–2344.5L13–23UN
Sat 12/27Miami (OH) vs Fresno State+5.0L3–1841.0L3–18UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Miami (OH) PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Ball State #134
+0.078
Miami (OH) #107
+0.283
Miami (OH) Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Ball State #136
+0.160
Miami (OH) #106
+0.482
Miami (OH) Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Ball State #105
0.140
Miami (OH) #25
0.178
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Miami (OH) Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Ball State #132
+6.096
Miami (OH) #107
+6.907
Miami (OH) Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Ball State #136
+0.718
Miami (OH) #106
+0.836
Miami (OH) Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Ball State #106
72.3
Miami (OH) #19
68.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Miami (OH) Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Miami (OH) Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Ball State
-21.6
Miami (OH)
0.7
Offense Rating
Ball State
5.9
Miami (OH)
14.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Ball State
27.5
Miami (OH)
14.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Miami (OH) Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Ball State #127
0.20
Miami (OH) #58
1.30
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Ball State #38
0.90
Miami (OH) #78
0.80
Miami (OH) +1.10
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Miami (OH) Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Ball State #1
22.3
Miami (OH) #1
45.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Ball State #133
64.0
Miami (OH) #73
35.6
Miami (OH) +23.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Miami (OH) with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Ball State
Mike Uremovich #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Mike Uremovich Yr 1 #1
DC Jeff Knowles Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
64–67 (49%) · Yr 12 at school
OC Patrick Welsh Yr 3 #1
DC Bill Brechin Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself