Buffalo at Massachusetts Week 8 College Football Matchup Buffalo at Massachusetts Matchup - Week 8
Sat, Oct 18 2025 · Week 8 · 🏟 Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium Hadley, MA · Turf · 17,000 cap
Buffalo✈ 319 miSame TZ
Away
28 21
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Buffalo
34
BUFF -16.5
Massachusetts
13
P&R Line Buffalo -21
P&R Total O/U 47.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Buffalo -16.5 · O/U 47.5
Matchup Prediction
Buffalo has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Buffalo entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Buffalo wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Buffalo wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Buffalo -16.5
O/U 47.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Buffalo · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Buffalo Coming off BYE
Buffalo 2025 Schedule
Buffalo's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Buffalo at Minnesota+16.5L10–2345.5L10–23UY
Sat 9/6Buffalo vs St. Francis (PA)-37.0W45–648.0W45–6OY
Sat 9/13Buffalo at Kent State-23.5W31–2848.5W31–28ON
Sat 9/20Buffalo vs Troy-5.5L17–2143.5L17–21UN
Sat 9/27Buffalo vs UConn+3.0L17–2051.5L17–20UY
Sat 10/4Buffalo vs Eastern Michigan-9.5W31–3053.5W31–30ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/18Buffalo at Massachusetts-16.5W28–2147.5W28–21ON
Sat 10/25Buffalo vs Akron-10.0L16–2448.5L16–24UN
Sat 11/1Buffalo at Bowling Green+2.5W28–344.5W28–3UY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/12Buffalo at Central Michigan+2.5L19–3844.5L19–38ON
Wed 11/19Buffalo vs Miami (OH)+2.5L20–3738.5L20–37ON
Fri 11/28Buffalo vs Ohio+7.0L26–3144.5L26–31OY
Massachusetts 2025 Schedule
Massachusetts's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Massachusetts vs Temple+3.0L10–4251.5L10–42ON
Sat 9/6Massachusetts vs Bryant-14.5L26–2752.0L26–27ON
Sat 9/13Massachusetts at Iowa+35.5L7–4744.5L7–47ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Massachusetts at Missouri+44.5L6–4257.5L6–42UY
Sat 10/4Massachusetts vs Western Michigan+12.5L3–2146.5L3–21UN
Sat 10/11Massachusetts at Kent State+1.5L6–4249.5L6–42UN
Sat 10/18Massachusetts vs Buffalo+16.5L21–2847.5L21–28OY
Sat 10/25Massachusetts at Central Michigan+16.5L13–3846.5L13–38ON
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/4Massachusetts at Akron+12.5L10–4451.5L10–44ON
Wed 11/12Massachusetts vs Northern Illinois+8.5L3–4543.5L3–45ON
Tue 11/18Massachusetts at Ohio+34.5L14–4253.5L14–42OY
Tue 11/25Massachusetts vs Bowling Green+14.0L14–4544.5L14–45ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Buffalo PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Buffalo
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Buffalo
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Buffalo
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Buffalo #116
+0.358
Massachusetts #135
+0.106
Buffalo Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Buffalo #103
+0.598
Massachusetts #132
+0.252
Buffalo Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Buffalo #75
0.153
Massachusetts #136
0.085
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Buffalo Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Buffalo #91
+8.136
Massachusetts #136
+5.236
Buffalo Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Buffalo #109
+0.868
Massachusetts #134
+0.728
Buffalo Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Buffalo #54
70.5
Massachusetts #131
74.1
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Buffalo Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Buffalo Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Buffalo
-10.8
Massachusetts
-27.8
Offense Rating
Buffalo
7.6
Massachusetts
1.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Buffalo
18.3
Massachusetts
29.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Buffalo Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Buffalo #98
0.60
Massachusetts #135
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Buffalo #23
0.60
Massachusetts #117
1.80
Buffalo +0.60
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Buffalo Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Buffalo #1
41.3
Massachusetts #1
18.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Buffalo #91
38.9
Massachusetts #136
70.0
Buffalo +22.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Massachusetts
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Massachusetts
50.1 — 21.3 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Buffalo won by 7
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Buffalo with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Buffalo
Pete Lembo #1
8–4 (67%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Dave Patenaude Yr 2 #1
DC Joe Bowen Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Massachusetts
Joe Harasymiak #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Mike Bajakian Yr 1 #1
DC Jared Keyte Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself