Toledo at Miami (OH) Week 12 College Football Matchup Toledo at Miami (OH) Matchup - Week 12
Wed, Nov 12 2025 · Week 12 · 🏟 Yager Stadium Oxford, OH · Turf · 24,286 cap
Toledo✈ 158 miSame TZ
Away
24 3
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Toledo
28
Miami (OH)
17
P&R Line Toledo -11.5
P&R Total O/U 44.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Toledo -6.5 · O/U 44.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Toledo wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Toledo -6.5
O/U 44.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Toledo · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Toledo 2025 Schedule
Toledo's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Toledo at Kentucky+10.0L16–2448.5L16–24UY
Sat 9/6Toledo vs Western Kentucky-8.5W45–2157.5W45–21OY
Sat 9/13Toledo vs Morgan State-33.5W60–054.5W60–0OY
Sat 9/20Toledo at Western Michigan-13.5L13–1448.5L13–14UN
Sat 9/27Toledo vs Akron-21.5W45–350.5W45–3UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/11Toledo at Bowling Green-10.5L23–2845.5L23–28ON
Sat 10/18Toledo vs Kent State-25.5W45–1048.5W45–10OY
Sat 10/25Toledo at Washington State-1.5L7–2844.5L7–28UN
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/5Toledo vs Northern Illinois-14.5W42–342.5W42–3OY
Wed 11/12Toledo at Miami (OH)-6.5W24–344.5W24–3UY
Sat 11/22Toledo vs Ball State-29.5W38–945.5W38–9ON
Sat 11/29Toledo at Central Michigan-11.5W21–346.5W21–3UY
Tue 12/23Toledo vs Louisville+12.5L22–2744.5L22–27OY
Miami (OH) 2025 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Miami (OH) at Wisconsin+17.5L0–1740.5L0–17UY
Sat 9/6Miami (OH) at Rutgers+15.5L17–4545.5L17–45ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20Miami (OH) vs UNLV+2.5L38–4149.5L38–41ON
Sat 9/27Miami (OH) vs Lindenwood-22.5W38–049.5W38–0UY
Sat 10/4Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois-4.5W25–1438.5W25–14OY
Sat 10/11Miami (OH) at Akron-11.5W20–747.5W20–7UY
Sat 10/18Miami (OH) vs Eastern Michigan-12.5W44–3047.5W44–30OY
Sat 10/25Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan-2.5W26–1740.5W26–17OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/4Miami (OH) at Ohio+2.5L20–2450.5L20–24UN
Wed 11/12Miami (OH) vs Toledo+6.5L3–2444.5L3–24UN
Wed 11/19Miami (OH) at Buffalo-2.5W37–2038.5W37–20OY
Sat 11/29Miami (OH) vs Ball State-16.5W45–2440.5W45–24OY
Sat 12/6Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan+2.5L13–2344.5L13–23UN
Sat 12/27Miami (OH) vs Fresno State+5.0L3–1841.0L3–18UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Toledo PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Toledo
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Toledo
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Toledo
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Toledo #63
+0.265
Miami (OH) #107
+0.030
Toledo Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Toledo #55
+0.470
Miami (OH) #106
+0.098
Toledo Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Toledo #5
0.202
Miami (OH) #25
0.178
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Toledo Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Toledo #55
+7.246
Miami (OH) #107
+5.791
Toledo Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Toledo #53
+0.827
Miami (OH) #106
+0.724
Toledo Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Toledo #22
68.8
Miami (OH) #19
68.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Miami (OH) Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Toledo Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Toledo
1.8
Miami (OH)
0.7
Offense Rating
Toledo
15.8
Miami (OH)
14.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Toledo
13.9
Miami (OH)
14.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
Toledo #41
1.38
Miami (OH) #58
1.38
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Toledo #16
0.63
Miami (OH) #78
0.50
Toledo +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Toledo Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Toledo #1
63.3
Miami (OH) #1
48.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Toledo #31
27.1
Miami (OH) #73
34.2
Toledo +15.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Toledo
Jason Candle #1
72–40 (64%) · Yr 10 at school
OC Mike Hallett Yr 3 #1
DC Vince Kehres Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
64–67 (49%) · Yr 12 at school
OC Patrick Welsh Yr 3 #1
DC Bill Brechin Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself