Buffalo at Central Michigan Week 12 College Football Matchup Buffalo at Central Michigan Matchup - Week 12
Wed, Nov 12 2025 · Week 12 · 🏟 Kelly/Shorts Stadium Mount Pleasant, MI · Turf · 32,885 cap
Buffalo✈ 304 miSame TZ
Away
19 38
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Buffalo
22
BUFF +2.5
Central Michigan
24
P&R Line Central Michigan -1.5
P&R Total O/U 45.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Central Michigan -2.5 · O/U 44.5
Matchup Prediction
Central Michigan has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Central Michigan entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Central Michigan wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Central Michigan wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Central Michigan -2.5
O/U 44.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Central Michigan · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Central Michigan Coming off BYE 🛋 Buffalo Coming off BYE
Buffalo 2025 Schedule
Buffalo's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Buffalo at Minnesota+16.5L10–2345.5L10–23UY
Sat 9/6Buffalo vs St. Francis (PA)-37.0W45–648.0W45–6OY
Sat 9/13Buffalo at Kent State-23.5W31–2848.5W31–28ON
Sat 9/20Buffalo vs Troy-5.5L17–2143.5L17–21UN
Sat 9/27Buffalo vs UConn+3.0L17–2051.5L17–20UY
Sat 10/4Buffalo vs Eastern Michigan-9.5W31–3053.5W31–30ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/18Buffalo at Massachusetts-16.5W28–2147.5W28–21ON
Sat 10/25Buffalo vs Akron-10.0L16–2448.5L16–24UN
Sat 11/1Buffalo at Bowling Green+2.5W28–344.5W28–3UY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/12Buffalo at Central Michigan+2.5L19–3844.5L19–38ON
Wed 11/19Buffalo vs Miami (OH)+2.5L20–3738.5L20–37ON
Fri 11/28Buffalo vs Ohio+7.0L26–3144.5L26–31OY
Central Michigan 2025 Schedule
Central Michigan's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29Central Michigan at San José State+11.5W16–1450.5W16–14UY
Sat 9/6Central Michigan at Pittsburgh+21.5L17–4548.5L17–45ON
Sat 9/13Central Michigan at Michigan+27.5L3–6342.5L3–63ON
Sat 9/20Central Michigan vs Wagner-29.0W49–1047.0W49–10OY
Sat 9/27Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan-3.0W24–1355.5W24–13UY
Sat 10/4Central Michigan at Akron-7.0L22–2847.5L22–28ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/18Central Michigan at Bowling Green+3.0W27–643.5W27–6UY
Sat 10/25Central Michigan vs Massachusetts-16.5W38–1346.5W38–13OY
Sat 11/1Central Michigan at Western Michigan+6.0L21–2443.5L21–24OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/12Central Michigan vs Buffalo-2.5W38–1944.5W38–19OY
Wed 11/19Central Michigan at Kent State-7.5W28–1650.5W28–16UY
Sat 11/29Central Michigan vs Toledo+11.5L3–2146.5L3–21UN
Fri 12/26Central Michigan vs Northwestern+13.5L7–3443.5L7–34UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Central Michigan PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Central Michigan
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Central Michigan
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Central Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Buffalo #116
+0.174
Central Michigan #71
+0.289
Central Michigan Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Buffalo #103
+0.375
Central Michigan #22
+0.632
Central Michigan Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Buffalo #75
0.153
Central Michigan #42
0.169
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Central Michigan Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Buffalo #91
+6.635
Central Michigan #80
+6.669
Central Michigan Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Buffalo #109
+0.784
Central Michigan #89
+0.802
Central Michigan Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Buffalo #54
70.5
Central Michigan #68
71.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Buffalo Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Central Michigan Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Buffalo
-10.8
Central Michigan
-4.9
Offense Rating
Buffalo
7.6
Central Michigan
15.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Buffalo
18.3
Central Michigan
20.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Central Michigan Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Buffalo #98
0.38
Central Michigan #134
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Buffalo #23
0.50
Central Michigan #113
1.13
Central Michigan +0.63
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Central Michigan Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Buffalo #1
43.0
Central Michigan #1
51.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Buffalo #91
37.1
Central Michigan #53
36.2
Central Michigan +8.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Central Michigan. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Buffalo
Pete Lembo #1
8–4 (67%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Dave Patenaude Yr 2 #1
DC Joe Bowen Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Central Michigan
Matt Drinkall #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Jim Chapin Yr 1 #1
DC Sean Cronin Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself