Miami (OH) at Fresno State Week 1 College Football Matchup Miami (OH) at Fresno State Matchup - Week 1
Sat, Dec 27 2025 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Arizona Stadium Tucson, AZ · Turf · 56,029 cap
Miami (OH)✈ 1,545 mi-3 hr TZ Fresno State✈ 592 miSame TZ
Away (Neutral)
3 18
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Miami (OH)
20
M-OH +5
Fresno State
23
P&R Line Fresno State -3
P&R Total O/U 43
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Fresno State -5.0 · O/U 41.0
Matchup Prediction
Fresno State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Fresno State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Fresno State wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Fresno State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Fresno State -5.0
O/U 41.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Miami (OH) · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Miami (OH) 2nd straight Road Game
Miami (OH) 2025 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Miami (OH) at Wisconsin+17.5L0–1740.5L0–17UY
Sat 9/6Miami (OH) at Rutgers+15.5L17–4545.5L17–45ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20Miami (OH) vs UNLV+2.5L38–4149.5L38–41ON
Sat 9/27Miami (OH) vs Lindenwood-22.5W38–049.5W38–0UY
Sat 10/4Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois-4.5W25–1438.5W25–14OY
Sat 10/11Miami (OH) at Akron-11.5W20–747.5W20–7UY
Sat 10/18Miami (OH) vs Eastern Michigan-12.5W44–3047.5W44–30OY
Sat 10/25Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan-2.5W26–1740.5W26–17OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/4Miami (OH) at Ohio+2.5L20–2450.5L20–24UN
Wed 11/12Miami (OH) vs Toledo+6.5L3–2444.5L3–24UN
Wed 11/19Miami (OH) at Buffalo-2.5W37–2038.5W37–20OY
Sat 11/29Miami (OH) vs Ball State-16.5W45–2440.5W45–24OY
Sat 12/6Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan+2.5L13–2344.5L13–23UN
Sat 12/27Miami (OH) vs Fresno State+5.0L3–1841.0L3–18UN
Fresno State 2025 Schedule
Fresno State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23Fresno State at Kansas+14.0L7–3151.5L7–31UN
Sat 8/30Fresno State vs Georgia Southern-2.5W42–1454.5W42–14OY
Sat 9/6Fresno State at Oregon State+1.0W36–2745.5W36–27OY
Sat 9/13Fresno State vs Southern-37.5W56–751.5W56–7OY
Sat 9/20Fresno State at Hawai'i-2.5W23–2147.5W23–21UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Fresno State vs Nevada-12.5W20–1745.5W20–17UN
Fri 10/10Fresno State at Colorado State-5.5L21–4947.5L21–49ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25Fresno State vs San Diego State+3.0L0–2346.5L0–23UN
Sat 11/1Fresno State at Boise State+17.5W30–747.5W30–7UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Fresno State vs Wyoming-3.0W24–340.5W24–3UY
Sat 11/22Fresno State vs Utah State-1.5L17–2850.5L17–28UN
Sat 11/29Fresno State at San José State-3.5W41–1446.0W41–14OY
Sat 12/27Fresno State vs Miami (OH)-5.0W18–341.0W18–3UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Miami (OH) PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Miami (OH) #107
+0.209
Fresno State #106
+0.190
Miami (OH) Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #106
+0.327
Fresno State #64
+0.442
Fresno State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #25
0.178
Fresno State #30
0.174
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Miami (OH) Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #107
+6.603
Fresno State #111
+6.682
Fresno State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Miami (OH) #106
+0.780
Fresno State #111
+0.777
Miami (OH) Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Miami (OH) #19
68.6
Fresno State #5
66.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Fresno State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Fresno State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Miami (OH)
0.7
Fresno State
2.4
Offense Rating
Miami (OH)
14.7
Fresno State
15.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Miami (OH)
14.0
Fresno State
12.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Fresno State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Miami (OH) #58
1.08
Fresno State #39
1.27
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami (OH) #78
0.83
Fresno State #13
0.64
Fresno State +0.19
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Fresno State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Miami (OH) #1
46.1
Fresno State #1
49.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami (OH) #73
37.7
Fresno State #48
34.7
Fresno State +3.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Fresno State
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Fresno State
60.6 — 16.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Fresno State won by 15
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Fresno State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
64–67 (49%) · Yr 12 at school
OC Patrick Welsh Yr 3 #1
DC Bill Brechin Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Fresno State
Matt Entz #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Josh Davis Yr 1 #1
DC Nick Benedetto Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself