Sat, Dec 27 2025
·
Postseason
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 Arizona Stadium
Tucson, AZ
·
Turf
·
56,029 cap
Miami (OH)✈ 1,545 mi-3 hr TZ
Fresno State✈ 592 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Fresno State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Fresno State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Fresno State wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Fresno State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Fresno State -5.0
O/U 41.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Miami (OH)
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Miami (OH) 2025 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | Miami (OH) at Wisconsin | +17.5L0–17 | 40.5 | L0–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Miami (OH) at Rutgers | +15.5L17–45 | 45.5 | L17–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | Miami (OH) vs UNLV | +2.5L38–41 | 49.5 | L38–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Miami (OH) vs Lindenwood | -22.5W38–0 | 49.5 | W38–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois | -4.5W25–14 | 38.5 | W25–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Miami (OH) at Akron | -11.5W20–7 | 47.5 | W20–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Miami (OH) vs Eastern Michigan | -12.5W44–30 | 47.5 | W44–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan | -2.5W26–17 | 40.5 | W26–17 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/4 | Miami (OH) at Ohio | +2.5L20–24 | 50.5 | L20–24 | U | N |
| Wed 11/12 | Miami (OH) vs Toledo | +6.5L3–24 | 44.5 | L3–24 | U | N |
| Wed 11/19 | Miami (OH) at Buffalo | -2.5W37–20 | 38.5 | W37–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Miami (OH) vs Ball State | -16.5W45–24 | 40.5 | W45–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/6 | Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan | +2.5L13–23 | 44.5 | L13–23 | U | N |
| Sat 12/27 | Miami (OH) vs Fresno State | +5.0L3–18 | 41.0 | L3–18 | U | N |
Fresno State 2025 Schedule
Fresno State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/23 | Fresno State at Kansas | +14.0L7–31 | 51.5 | L7–31 | U | N |
| Sat 8/30 | Fresno State vs Georgia Southern | -2.5W42–14 | 54.5 | W42–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Fresno State at Oregon State | +1.0W36–27 | 45.5 | W36–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Fresno State vs Southern | -37.5W56–7 | 51.5 | W56–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Fresno State at Hawai'i | -2.5W23–21 | 47.5 | W23–21 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Fresno State vs Nevada | -12.5W20–17 | 45.5 | W20–17 | U | N |
| Fri 10/10 | Fresno State at Colorado State | -5.5L21–49 | 47.5 | L21–49 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/25 | Fresno State vs San Diego State | +3.0L0–23 | 46.5 | L0–23 | U | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Fresno State at Boise State | +17.5W30–7 | 47.5 | W30–7 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Fresno State vs Wyoming | -3.0W24–3 | 40.5 | W24–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Fresno State vs Utah State | -1.5L17–28 | 50.5 | L17–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Fresno State at San José State | -3.5W41–14 | 46.0 | W41–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/27 | Fresno State vs Miami (OH) | -5.0W18–3 | 41.0 | W18–3 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Fresno State Edge
Fresno State +0.19
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Fresno State Edge
Fresno State +3.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Fresno State
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Fresno State
60.6 — 16.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Fresno State won by 15
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Fresno State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
64–67 (49%)
· Yr 12 at school
OC
Patrick Welsh
Yr 3
#1
DC
Bill Brechin
Yr 3
#1
Fresno State
Matt Entz #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Josh Davis
Yr 1
#1
DC
Nick Benedetto
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

