Massachusetts at Central Michigan Week 9 College Football Matchup Massachusetts at Central Michigan Matchup - Week 9
Sat, Oct 25 2025 · Week 9 · 🏟 Kelly/Shorts Stadium Mount Pleasant, MI · Turf · 32,885 cap
Massachusetts✈ 623 miSame TZ
13 38
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Massachusetts
11
CMU -16.5
Central Michigan
36
P&R Line Central Michigan -25
P&R Total O/U 47.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Central Michigan -16.5 · O/U 46.5
Matchup Prediction
Central Michigan has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Central Michigan entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Central Michigan wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Central Michigan wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Central Michigan -16.5
O/U 46.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Central Michigan · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Massachusetts 2025 Schedule
Massachusetts's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Massachusetts vs Temple+3.0L10–4251.5L10–42ON
Sat 9/6Massachusetts vs Bryant-14.5L26–2752.0L26–27ON
Sat 9/13Massachusetts at Iowa+35.5L7–4744.5L7–47ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Massachusetts at Missouri+44.5L6–4257.5L6–42UY
Sat 10/4Massachusetts vs Western Michigan+12.5L3–2146.5L3–21UN
Sat 10/11Massachusetts at Kent State+1.5L6–4249.5L6–42UN
Sat 10/18Massachusetts vs Buffalo+16.5L21–2847.5L21–28OY
Sat 10/25Massachusetts at Central Michigan+16.5L13–3846.5L13–38ON
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/4Massachusetts at Akron+12.5L10–4451.5L10–44ON
Wed 11/12Massachusetts vs Northern Illinois+8.5L3–4543.5L3–45ON
Tue 11/18Massachusetts at Ohio+34.5L14–4253.5L14–42OY
Tue 11/25Massachusetts vs Bowling Green+14.0L14–4544.5L14–45ON
Central Michigan 2025 Schedule
Central Michigan's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29Central Michigan at San José State+11.5W16–1450.5W16–14UY
Sat 9/6Central Michigan at Pittsburgh+21.5L17–4548.5L17–45ON
Sat 9/13Central Michigan at Michigan+27.5L3–6342.5L3–63ON
Sat 9/20Central Michigan vs Wagner-29.0W49–1047.0W49–10OY
Sat 9/27Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan-3.0W24–1355.5W24–13UY
Sat 10/4Central Michigan at Akron-7.0L22–2847.5L22–28ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/18Central Michigan at Bowling Green+3.0W27–643.5W27–6UY
Sat 10/25Central Michigan vs Massachusetts-16.5W38–1346.5W38–13OY
Sat 11/1Central Michigan at Western Michigan+6.0L21–2443.5L21–24OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/12Central Michigan vs Buffalo-2.5W38–1944.5W38–19OY
Wed 11/19Central Michigan at Kent State-7.5W28–1650.5W28–16UY
Sat 11/29Central Michigan vs Toledo+11.5L3–2146.5L3–21UN
Fri 12/26Central Michigan vs Northwestern+13.5L7–3443.5L7–34UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Central Michigan PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Central Michigan
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Central Michigan
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Central Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Massachusetts #135
+0.089
Central Michigan #71
+0.455
Central Michigan Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Massachusetts #132
+0.209
Central Michigan #22
+0.811
Central Michigan Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Massachusetts #136
0.085
Central Michigan #42
0.169
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Central Michigan Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Massachusetts #136
+5.302
Central Michigan #80
+8.236
Central Michigan Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Massachusetts #134
+0.733
Central Michigan #89
+0.891
Central Michigan Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Massachusetts #131
74.1
Central Michigan #68
71.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Central Michigan Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Central Michigan Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Massachusetts
-27.8
Central Michigan
-4.9
Offense Rating
Massachusetts
1.1
Central Michigan
15.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Massachusetts
29.1
Central Michigan
20.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Central Michigan Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Massachusetts #135
0.17
Central Michigan #134
0.83
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Massachusetts #117
1.50
Central Michigan #113
1.33
Central Michigan +0.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Central Michigan Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Massachusetts #1
23.3
Central Michigan #1
46.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Massachusetts #136
63.0
Central Michigan #53
43.1
Central Michigan +22.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Central Michigan
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Central Michigan
91.2 — 3.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Central Michigan won by 25
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Central Michigan with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Massachusetts
Joe Harasymiak #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Mike Bajakian Yr 1 #1
DC Jared Keyte Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Central Michigan
Matt Drinkall #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Jim Chapin Yr 1 #1
DC Sean Cronin Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself