Northern Illinois at Massachusetts Week 12 College Football Matchup Northern Illinois at Massachusetts Matchup - Week 12
Wed, Nov 12 2025 · Week 12 · 🏟 Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium Hadley, MA · Turf · 17,000 cap
Northern Illinois✈ 831 mi+1 hr TZ
45 3
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Northern Illinois
28
NIU -8.5
Massachusetts
17
P&R Line Northern Illinois -10.5
P&R Total O/U 44.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Northern Illinois -8.5 · O/U 43.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Northern Illinois wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Northern Illinois -8.5
O/U 43.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Northern Illinois · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Northern Illinois 2nd straight Road Game
Northern Illinois 2025 Schedule
Northern Illinois's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Northern Illinois vs Holy Cross-13.5W19–1748.5W19–17UN
Fri 9/5Northern Illinois at Maryland+17.0L9–2044.5L9–20UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20Northern Illinois at Mississippi State+23.5L10–3848.5L10–38UN
Sat 9/27Northern Illinois vs San Diego State+1.5L3–641.5L3–6UN
Sat 10/4Northern Illinois vs Miami (OH)+4.5L14–2538.5L14–25ON
Sat 10/11Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan-1.5L10–1648.5L10–16UN
Sat 10/18Northern Illinois at Ohio+10.5L21–4841.5L21–48ON
Sat 10/25Northern Illinois vs Ball State-6.5W21–741.5W21–7UY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/5Northern Illinois at Toledo+14.5L3–4242.5L3–42ON
Wed 11/12Northern Illinois at Massachusetts-8.5W45–343.5W45–3OY
Tue 11/18Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan+7.0L19–3539.5L19–35ON
Fri 11/28Northern Illinois vs Kent State-5.0L31–3545.0L31–35ON
Massachusetts 2025 Schedule
Massachusetts's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Massachusetts vs Temple+3.0L10–4251.5L10–42ON
Sat 9/6Massachusetts vs Bryant-14.5L26–2752.0L26–27ON
Sat 9/13Massachusetts at Iowa+35.5L7–4744.5L7–47ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Massachusetts at Missouri+44.5L6–4257.5L6–42UY
Sat 10/4Massachusetts vs Western Michigan+12.5L3–2146.5L3–21UN
Sat 10/11Massachusetts at Kent State+1.5L6–4249.5L6–42UN
Sat 10/18Massachusetts vs Buffalo+16.5L21–2847.5L21–28OY
Sat 10/25Massachusetts at Central Michigan+16.5L13–3846.5L13–38ON
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/4Massachusetts at Akron+12.5L10–4451.5L10–44ON
Wed 11/12Massachusetts vs Northern Illinois+8.5L3–4543.5L3–45ON
Tue 11/18Massachusetts at Ohio+34.5L14–4253.5L14–42OY
Tue 11/25Massachusetts vs Bowling Green+14.0L14–4544.5L14–45ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Northern Illinois PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Northern Illinois
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Northern Illinois
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Northern Illinois
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Northern Illinois #126
+0.324
Massachusetts #135
+0.175
Northern Illinois Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Northern Illinois #134
+0.414
Massachusetts #132
+0.207
Northern Illinois Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Northern Illinois #132
0.112
Massachusetts #136
0.085
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Northern Illinois Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Northern Illinois #121
+7.676
Massachusetts #136
+5.614
Northern Illinois Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Northern Illinois #132
+0.825
Massachusetts #134
+0.778
Northern Illinois Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Northern Illinois #118
72.7
Massachusetts #131
74.1
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Northern Illinois Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Northern Illinois Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Northern Illinois
-17.9
Massachusetts
-27.8
Offense Rating
Northern Illinois
8.5
Massachusetts
1.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Northern Illinois
26.4
Massachusetts
29.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
Northern Illinois #123
0.25
Massachusetts #135
0.25
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Northern Illinois #104
1.38
Massachusetts #117
1.75
Northern Illinois +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Northern Illinois Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Northern Illinois #1
28.9
Massachusetts #1
19.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Northern Illinois #93
53.3
Massachusetts #136
69.7
Northern Illinois +9.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Northern Illinois
Thomas Hammock #1
31–38 (45%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Wesley Beschorner Yr 2 #1
DC Nick Benedetto Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Massachusetts
Joe Harasymiak #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Mike Bajakian Yr 1 #1
DC Jared Keyte Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself