Bowling Green at Massachusetts Week 14 College Football Matchup Bowling Green at Massachusetts Matchup - Week 14
Tue, Nov 25 2025 · Week 14 · 🏟 Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium Hadley, MA · Turf · 17,000 cap
Bowling Green✈ 574 miSame TZ
45 14
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Bowling Green
29
Massachusetts
18
P&R Line Bowling Green -11.5
P&R Total O/U 46.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Bowling Green -14 · O/U 44.5
Matchup Prediction
Bowling Green has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Bowling Green entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Bowling Green wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Bowling Green wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Bowling Green -14
O/U 44.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Bowling Green · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Bowling Green 2025 Schedule
Bowling Green's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Bowling Green vs Lafayette-21.0W26–753.0W26–7UN
Sat 9/6Bowling Green at Cincinnati+21.5L20–3446.5L20–34OY
Sat 9/13Bowling Green vs Liberty+6.0W23–1351.5W23–13UY
Sat 9/20Bowling Green at Louisville+26.5L17–4050.5L17–40OY
Sat 9/27Bowling Green at Ohio+7.5L20–3549.5L20–35ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/11Bowling Green vs Toledo+10.5W28–2345.5W28–23OY
Sat 10/18Bowling Green vs Central Michigan-3.0L6–2743.5L6–27UN
Sat 10/25Bowling Green at Kent State-7.5L21–2447.5L21–24UN
Sat 11/1Bowling Green vs Buffalo-2.5L3–2844.5L3–28UN
Sat 11/8Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan+3.0L21–2749.5L21–27UN
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/18Bowling Green vs Akron-2.5L16–1947.5L16–19UN
Tue 11/25Bowling Green at Massachusetts-14.0W45–1444.5W45–14OY
Massachusetts 2025 Schedule
Massachusetts's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Massachusetts vs Temple+3.0L10–4251.5L10–42ON
Sat 9/6Massachusetts vs Bryant-14.5L26–2752.0L26–27ON
Sat 9/13Massachusetts at Iowa+35.5L7–4744.5L7–47ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Massachusetts at Missouri+44.5L6–4257.5L6–42UY
Sat 10/4Massachusetts vs Western Michigan+12.5L3–2146.5L3–21UN
Sat 10/11Massachusetts at Kent State+1.5L6–4249.5L6–42UN
Sat 10/18Massachusetts vs Buffalo+16.5L21–2847.5L21–28OY
Sat 10/25Massachusetts at Central Michigan+16.5L13–3846.5L13–38ON
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/4Massachusetts at Akron+12.5L10–4451.5L10–44ON
Wed 11/12Massachusetts vs Northern Illinois+8.5L3–4543.5L3–45ON
Tue 11/18Massachusetts at Ohio+34.5L14–4253.5L14–42OY
Tue 11/25Massachusetts vs Bowling Green+14.0L14–4544.5L14–45ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Bowling Green PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Bowling Green
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Bowling Green
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Bowling Green
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Bowling Green #128
+0.309
Massachusetts #135
+0.142
Bowling Green Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Bowling Green #129
+0.482
Massachusetts #132
+0.294
Bowling Green Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Bowling Green #12
0.190
Massachusetts #136
0.085
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Bowling Green Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Bowling Green #118
+7.827
Massachusetts #136
+5.610
Bowling Green Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Bowling Green #128
+0.836
Massachusetts #134
+0.743
Bowling Green Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Bowling Green #27
69.0
Massachusetts #131
74.1
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Bowling Green Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Bowling Green Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Bowling Green
-9.7
Massachusetts
-27.8
Offense Rating
Bowling Green
10.9
Massachusetts
1.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Bowling Green
20.7
Massachusetts
29.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Bowling Green Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Bowling Green #114
0.40
Massachusetts #135
0.20
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Bowling Green #72
1.00
Massachusetts #117
2.20
Bowling Green +0.20
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Bowling Green Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Bowling Green #1
31.0
Massachusetts #1
17.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Bowling Green #111
55.7
Massachusetts #136
71.3
Bowling Green +14.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Bowling Green
1 — 4 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Bowling Green
4.1 — 93.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Bowling Green won by 31
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Bowling Green with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Bowling Green
Eddie George #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Greg Nosal Yr 3 #1
DC Steve Morrison Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Massachusetts
Joe Harasymiak #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Mike Bajakian Yr 1 #1
DC Jared Keyte Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself