Massachusetts at Iowa Week 3 College Football Matchup Massachusetts at Iowa Matchup - Week 3
Sat, Sep 13 2025 · Week 3 · 🏟 Kinnick Stadium Iowa City, IA · Turf · 70,585 cap
Massachusetts✈ 975 mi-1 hr TZ
7 47
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Massachusetts
4
Iowa
42
P&R Line Iowa -37.5
P&R Total O/U 46
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Iowa -35.5 · O/U 44.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Iowa wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Iowa -35.5
O/U 44.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Iowa · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Massachusetts 2025 Schedule
Massachusetts's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Massachusetts vs Temple+3.0L10–4251.5L10–42ON
Sat 9/6Massachusetts vs Bryant-14.5L26–2752.0L26–27ON
Sat 9/13Massachusetts at Iowa+35.5L7–4744.5L7–47ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Massachusetts at Missouri+44.5L6–4257.5L6–42UY
Sat 10/4Massachusetts vs Western Michigan+12.5L3–2146.5L3–21UN
Sat 10/11Massachusetts at Kent State+1.5L6–4249.5L6–42UN
Sat 10/18Massachusetts vs Buffalo+16.5L21–2847.5L21–28OY
Sat 10/25Massachusetts at Central Michigan+16.5L13–3846.5L13–38ON
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/4Massachusetts at Akron+12.5L10–4451.5L10–44ON
Wed 11/12Massachusetts vs Northern Illinois+8.5L3–4543.5L3–45ON
Tue 11/18Massachusetts at Ohio+34.5L14–4253.5L14–42OY
Tue 11/25Massachusetts vs Bowling Green+14.0L14–4544.5L14–45ON
Iowa 2025 Schedule
Iowa's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Iowa vs UAlbany-39.5W34–748.5W34–7UN
Sat 9/6Iowa at Iowa State+3.0L13–1643.0L13–16UY
Sat 9/13Iowa vs Massachusetts-35.5W47–744.5W47–7OY
Fri 9/19Iowa at Rutgers-2.5W38–2846.5W38–28OY
Sat 9/27Iowa vs Indiana+9.5L15–2047.5L15–20UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/11Iowa at Wisconsin-5.5W37–037.5W37–0UY
Sat 10/18Iowa vs Penn State-3.5W25–2441.5W25–24ON
Sat 10/25Iowa vs Minnesota-7.5W41–339.5W41–3OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/8Iowa vs Oregon+4.5L16–1841.5L16–18UY
Sat 11/15Iowa at USC+6.5L21–2648.5L21–26UY
Sat 11/22Iowa vs Michigan State-17.5W20–1743.0W20–17UN
Fri 11/28Iowa at Nebraska-5.5W40–1638.5W40–16OY
Wed 12/31Iowa vs Vanderbilt+3.0W34–2747.5W34–27OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Iowa PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Iowa
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Iowa
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Iowa
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Massachusetts #135
+0.069
Iowa #73
+0.454
Iowa Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Massachusetts #132
+0.178
Iowa #71
+0.656
Iowa Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Massachusetts #136
0.085
Iowa #42
0.169
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Iowa Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Massachusetts #136
+5.506
Iowa #20
+9.072
Iowa Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Massachusetts #134
+0.722
Iowa #45
+0.925
Iowa Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Massachusetts #131
74.1
Iowa #6
66.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Iowa Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Iowa Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Massachusetts
-27.8
Iowa
11.5
Offense Rating
Massachusetts
1.1
Iowa
18.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Massachusetts
29.1
Iowa
7.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
Massachusetts #135
0.00
Iowa #50
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Massachusetts #117
2.00
Iowa #10
1.00
Massachusetts +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Iowa Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Massachusetts #1
38.9
Iowa #1
42.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Massachusetts #136
39.2
Iowa #21
36.8
Iowa +4.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Iowa
3 — 0 sequences
GC Battle
Iowa
97.0 — 2.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Iowa won by 40
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Iowa, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Massachusetts
Joe Harasymiak #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Mike Bajakian Yr 1 #1
DC Jared Keyte Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Iowa
Kirk Ferentz #1
204–123 (62%) · Yr 27 at school
OC Tim Lester Yr 2 #1
DC Phil Parker Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself