Massachusetts at Missouri Week 5 College Football Matchup Massachusetts at Missouri Matchup - Week 5
Sat, Sep 27 2025 · Week 5 · 🏟 Faurot Field Columbia, MO · Turf · 71,168 cap
Massachusetts✈ 1,062 mi-1 hr TZ
6 42
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Massachusetts
9
Missouri
45
P&R Line Missouri -35.5
P&R Total O/U 53.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Missouri -44.5 · O/U 57.5
Matchup Prediction
Missouri has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Missouri entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Missouri wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Missouri wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Missouri -44.5
O/U 57.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Missouri · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Missouri 4th straight Home Game 🛋 Massachusetts Coming off BYE
Massachusetts 2025 Schedule
Massachusetts's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Massachusetts vs Temple+3.0L10–4251.5L10–42ON
Sat 9/6Massachusetts vs Bryant-14.5L26–2752.0L26–27ON
Sat 9/13Massachusetts at Iowa+35.5L7–4744.5L7–47ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Massachusetts at Missouri+44.5L6–4257.5L6–42UY
Sat 10/4Massachusetts vs Western Michigan+12.5L3–2146.5L3–21UN
Sat 10/11Massachusetts at Kent State+1.5L6–4249.5L6–42UN
Sat 10/18Massachusetts vs Buffalo+16.5L21–2847.5L21–28OY
Sat 10/25Massachusetts at Central Michigan+16.5L13–3846.5L13–38ON
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/4Massachusetts at Akron+12.5L10–4451.5L10–44ON
Wed 11/12Massachusetts vs Northern Illinois+8.5L3–4543.5L3–45ON
Tue 11/18Massachusetts at Ohio+34.5L14–4253.5L14–42OY
Tue 11/25Massachusetts vs Bowling Green+14.0L14–4544.5L14–45ON
Missouri 2025 Schedule
Missouri's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Missouri vs Central Arkansas-38.5W61–652.5W61–6OY
Sat 9/6Missouri vs Kansas-5.5W42–3151.0W42–31OY
Sat 9/13Missouri vs Louisiana-27.5W52–1047.5W52–10OY
Sat 9/20Missouri vs South Carolina-10.0W29–2048.5W29–20ON
Sat 9/27Missouri vs Massachusetts-44.5W42–657.5W42–6UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/11Missouri vs Alabama+3.5L24–2750.5L24–27OY
Sat 10/18Missouri at Auburn-1.5W23–1743.5W23–17UY
Sat 10/25Missouri at Vanderbilt+3.0L10–1752.5L10–17UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/8Missouri vs Texas A&M+7.0L17–3848.5L17–38ON
Sat 11/15Missouri vs Mississippi State-7.5W49–2750.5W49–27OY
Sat 11/22Missouri at Oklahoma+4.5L6–1742.5L6–17UN
Sat 11/29Missouri at Arkansas-4.5W31–1754.5W31–17UY
Sat 12/27Missouri vs Virginia-4.0L7–1343.5L7–13UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Missouri PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Missouri
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Missouri
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Missouri
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Massachusetts #135
+0.028
Missouri #50
+0.481
Missouri Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Massachusetts #132
+0.120
Missouri #108
+0.590
Missouri Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Massachusetts #136
0.085
Missouri #8
0.198
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Missouri Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Massachusetts #136
+5.530
Missouri #56
+8.486
Missouri Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Massachusetts #134
+0.683
Missouri #42
+0.928
Missouri Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Massachusetts #131
74.1
Missouri #99
71.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Missouri Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Missouri Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Massachusetts
-27.8
Missouri
12.2
Offense Rating
Massachusetts
1.1
Missouri
20.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Massachusetts
29.1
Missouri
8.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Missouri Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Massachusetts #135
0.00
Missouri #105
1.67
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Massachusetts #117
2.50
Missouri #14
0.00
Missouri +1.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Missouri Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Massachusetts #1
26.7
Missouri #1
66.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Massachusetts #136
58.4
Missouri #45
16.6
Missouri +39.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Missouri
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Missouri
93.0 — 4.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Missouri won by 36
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Missouri with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Massachusetts
Joe Harasymiak #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Mike Bajakian Yr 1 #1
DC Jared Keyte Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Missouri
Eliah Drinkwitz #1
37–24 (61%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Kirby Moore Yr 3 #1
DC Corey Batoon Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself