Fresno State at San José State Week 14 College Football Matchup Fresno State at San José State Matchup - Week 14
Sat, Nov 29 2025 · Week 14 · 🏟 Spartan Stadium San Jose, CA · Turf · 30,456 cap
Fresno State✈ 121 miSame TZ
41 14
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Fresno State
27
San José State
22
P&R Line Fresno State -5
P&R Total O/U 48.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Fresno State -3.5 · O/U 46.0
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Fresno State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Fresno State -3.5
O/U 46.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Fresno State · 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Fresno State 2025 Schedule
Fresno State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23Fresno State at Kansas+14.0L7–3151.5L7–31UN
Sat 8/30Fresno State vs Georgia Southern-2.5W42–1454.5W42–14OY
Sat 9/6Fresno State at Oregon State+1.0W36–2745.5W36–27OY
Sat 9/13Fresno State vs Southern-37.5W56–751.5W56–7OY
Sat 9/20Fresno State at Hawai'i-2.5W23–2147.5W23–21UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Fresno State vs Nevada-12.5W20–1745.5W20–17UN
Fri 10/10Fresno State at Colorado State-5.5L21–4947.5L21–49ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25Fresno State vs San Diego State+3.0L0–2346.5L0–23UN
Sat 11/1Fresno State at Boise State+17.5W30–747.5W30–7UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Fresno State vs Wyoming-3.0W24–340.5W24–3UY
Sat 11/22Fresno State vs Utah State-1.5L17–2850.5L17–28UN
Sat 11/29Fresno State at San José State-3.5W41–1446.0W41–14OY
Sat 12/27Fresno State vs Miami (OH)-5.0W18–341.0W18–3UY
San José State 2025 Schedule
San José State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29San José State vs Central Michigan-11.5L14–1650.5L14–16UN
Sat 9/6San José State at Texas+37.0L7–3852.5L7–38UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20San José State vs Idaho-14.5W31–2851.5W31–28ON
Sat 9/27San José State at Stanford+3.0L29–3049.5L29–30OY
Fri 10/3San José State vs New Mexico-1.5W35–2858.5W35–28OY
Sat 10/11San José State at Wyoming-1.5L28–3550.5L28–35ON
Fri 10/17San José State at Utah State+3.0L25–3063.5L25–30UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1San José State vs Hawai'i-2.5W45–3855.5W45–38OY
Sat 11/8San José State vs Air Force-6.0L16–2667.5L16–26UN
Sat 11/15San José State at Nevada-10.0L10–5549.5L10–55ON
Sat 11/22San José State at San Diego State+10.0L3–2550.5L3–25UN
Sat 11/29San José State vs Fresno State+3.5L14–4146.0L14–41ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Fresno State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Fresno State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Fresno State #106
+0.308
San José State #67
+0.284
Fresno State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Fresno State #64
+0.591
San José State #81
+0.369
Fresno State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Fresno State #30
0.174
San José State #129
0.121
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Fresno State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Fresno State #111
+7.330
San José State #130
+6.034
Fresno State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Fresno State #111
+0.807
San José State #54
+0.824
San José State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Fresno State #5
66.4
San José State #120
72.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Fresno State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Fresno State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Fresno State
2.4
San José State
-19.7
Offense Rating
Fresno State
15.1
San José State
6.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Fresno State
12.8
San José State
26.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
Fresno State #39
0.90
San José State #86
0.90
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Fresno State #13
0.70
San José State #92
1.30
Fresno State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Fresno State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Fresno State #1
47.1
San José State #1
37.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Fresno State #48
37.0
San José State #105
47.6
Fresno State +10.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Fresno State
Matt Entz #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Josh Davis Yr 1 #1
DC Nick Benedetto Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
San José State
Ken Niumatalolo #1
7–5 (58%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Craig Stutzmann Yr 2 #1
DC Derrick Odum Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself